The Opponent
Syracuse (9-4, 3-3 ACC) at No. 8 UVa (10-2, 6-0 ACC)
7 p.m., ESPN
UVa is the lone team that remains undefeated in ACC play, winners of six straight games. The Cavaliers outlasted a strong effort from Georgia Tech on Saturday night to maintain their place atop the league standings but now face a quick turnaround of less than 48 hours with Syracuse coming to Charlottesville for a Big Monday clash.
While UVa won its only contest of the week, Syracuse notched a pair of impressive, much-needed wins at home. On Tuesday, the Orange bludgeoned Miami 83-57 to stop a two-game losing skid. They followed that good performance with another over the weekend, when they upended then then-No. 16 Virginia Tech with a 78-60 win at the Carrier Dome. Those victories gave the Orange momentum heading into a tough stretch of games starting with the Cavaliers on tonight.
As in other years, Syracuse has been up and down in the first half of the season. The Orange started 3-0 before losing to Rutgers but then destroyed BC in their ACC opener, winning 101-63 on the road. They would enter January with a 6-1 record but a pair of losses to Pittsburgh and another setback against UNC put them in an early 1-3 hole in league play. We’ll soon find out if the Orange will continue to yo-yo back and forth and end up somewhere in the middle of the league standings, or if their recent surge with back-to-back double-digit wins is a sign of improvement for Jim Boeheim’s group.
The Numbers
Syracuse ranks 36th in KenPom heading into Monday’s tilt, with top-100 marks on both offense and defense. The Orange have struggled shooting the 3 this season but still rank 28th nationally in offensive efficiency. Led by a diverse lineup that can provide challenges to a defense, Syracuse has done a nice job scoring in the paint, making 54 percent of its two-point tries. Their 32-percent average from deep isn’t great but the Orange certainly have a number of talented shooters who can get hot and out-perform their season average.
Syracuse does a nice job taking care of the basketball, ranking 35th-best nationally in turnover rate. And when they get to the free-throw line the Orange usually cash in, with their 78.9 percent average from the charity stripe ranking 11th-best nationally.
Syracuse’s famous 2-3 zone defense should need no introduction to Cavalier fans. Always one of the toughest in the country to prepare for, the Orange rank 57th this year in efficiency and have a few areas where they are elite. Opponents have just a 45.7 effective field-goal percentage and are shooting just 28.6 from beyond the arc. As always, Syracuse is near the top nationally in block rate, where the Orange rank 12th, and in steal rate, where they rank 20th. Almost all of their forced turnovers are live-ball takeaways, which can lead to more dangerous scenarios than non-live ball turnovers. The Orange are allowing opponents second-chance opportunities at a very high clip, however, ranking 300th nationally in offensive rebound percentage allowed.
The Matchups
It’s no coincidence that Syracuse played well and won two games this week while sophomore forward Quincy Guerrier had a pair of impressive performances. The second-year player has come into his own after playing a smaller role last season, and leads the Orange in scoring with 16.9 points per contest. Guerrier, a native of Montreal, is also a strong rebounder, averaging 9.6 boards per contest. The 6-foot-7 sophomore has been a consistent scorer of late, with at least 18 points in each of Syracuse’s last four contests, including a 20-point, nine-rebound effort against the Hokies on Saturday. For the third-straight game, Virginia must contest with a talented forward who can shoot and score around the rim, after holding off a strong effort from Georgia Tech’s Moses Wright on Saturday and completely shutting down Clemson’s Aamir Simms in the previous contest. Guerrier should be another tough challenge for the Wahoos tonight.
Guerrier is complemented by a group of talented guards who are all capable of big scoring performances individually. This Syracuse team got a big boost with the immediate eligibility of Illinois transfer Alan Griffin, who has had an immediate impact for the Orange. Griffin is second on the team in points per game with 15.7, and he averages 7.2 rebounds and 2.3 assists per contest to go along with his scoring output. He is a bit more streaky than Guerrier as a scorer, with a 28-point effort against Pittsburgh earlier this month followed up by a five-point game against Miami just three days later. Buddy Boeheim has continued to improve in his third season playing for his father, and averages 15.1 points per contest in 10 games played this season. Boeheim has four 20-point scoring efforts under his belt this season, most recently with 23 in the win over Miami last week. Boeheim has been a streaky shooter, making just 28.8 percent of his 3s, but he has made three or more in half of his games this year. Finally, sophomore guard Joseph Girard III deserves a mention. The sophomore guard is a dead-eye shooter when he is on, making 40 percent of his 3-point tries. He had a breakout game at JPJ last year, leading the Orange with 19 points in a 63-55 OT win over the Cavaliers.