No. 10 UVa (14-3, 6-2 ACC) at Wake Forest (14-5, 6-2 ACC)

2 p.m., ESPNU

Following a big rivalry win at home on Wednesday, the Hoos go back on the road this weekend when they travel down Route 29 to take on a hot Wake Forest team in Winston-Salem. Tomorrow’s game is a matchup of two teams at 6-2 in ACC play, as they both currently sit one game behind 7-1 Clemson.

The Demon Deacons have quietly been hanging around the top of the ACC standings through the month despite not much hype outside of their own fanbase. Wake started the season 4-0 before an up-and-down stretch that had them 8-4 on December 17. Since then, the Deacs are 6-1, with the only loss coming at UNC on January 4. Heading into Saturday’s game, Wake has won four in a row, including a big home victory over Clemson on Tuesday night as the Demon Deacons handed the Tigers their first league loss.

Wake has also been a tough team at home this year. The Deans are 10-0 at home this season and have won 15 straight at “The Joel” dating back to February of last year. Virginia hasn’t played in Winston-Salem in three calendar years, beating the Deacs 65-63 in overtime on January 26th, 2020.

Wake keeps stacking wins, but the metrics aren’t quite on board with the Demon Deacons just yet. Heading into the weekend, Wake ranks 72nd in KenPom and, despite a solid 6-2 ACC record, the algorithm projects the Deacs to lose their next four games (UVa, Pitt, NC State and Duke) and seven of their next nine.

Wake ranks 32nd nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and has a roster full of capable scorers. The Demon Deacons can shoot the ball well from all areas of the floor, making 37.6 percent of their 3s and 54 percent of their two-pointers, ranking top-50 nationally in both categories. They shoot quite a few from long range, with 42 percent of their attempts coming from beyond the arc and 35.5 percent of their points coming from 3s. Wake does a pretty good job taking care of the basketball and getting to the free-throw line, too. The Deacons play at a much faster pace than Virginia so they will likely need to execute their offense in the half court more than they do in a typical game.

On defense, Wake Forest ranks 139th nationally in pace-adjusted efficiency. The Deacs do a good job on the glass, ranking 78th in offensive rebounds allowed. Opponents are shooting just 32.9 percent from deep but do find success around the rim, making 52.5 percent of their two pointers.

Wake gets most of its scoring from guards, led by one of the most prolific scorers and best overall players in the ACC this season in Tyree Appleby. The senior guard is having a fantastic year for Wake after transferring in from Florida, scoring 18.1 points per contest. Appleby has been a consistent scorer and is coming off of a 24-point game against Clemson. He is also a fantastic distributor, averaging 6.1 assists per contest with at least seven in each of his last seven games.

Appleby is joined in the backcourt by Cameron Hildreth and Damari Monsanto, both of whom are capable of big scoring outputs as well. Hildreth, a Worthing, England native, is second on the team in scoring at 13.1 points per game. He’s not much of an outside shooter making just 30.8 percent of his attempts from deep but he has continued to find ways to score the basketball. Despite a 1-for-5 night from 3 against Clemson, Hildreth scored 17 points, including six at the free-throw line. In the previous game at BC, he put up 20 points, making just two of his five attempts from beyond the arc. Monsanto, who started his career with Steve Forbes at ETSU, has seen his role increase from last season to this and has stepped up his game in the process. The 6-foot-6 junior wing is scoring 12 points per game, and chipped in 17 against Clemson on Tuesday.

In the frontcourt, Wake is led by Delaware transfer Andrew Carr, who has made an immediate impact in Winston-Salem. The 6-foot-10 forward is scoring 11.9 points and grabbing six rebounds per contest, the best averages of his career to this point. Heading into a clash with UVa, Carr has back-to-back double-doubles, scoring 21 and grabbing 13 boards at BC before and going for 18 and 11 against Clemson.

On Saturday we will likely learn more about Wake Forest than we will about UVa. Are the Deacs a legit ACC contender and red hot team heading towards February, or is their impressive ACC mark more a function of their schedule to date? Four of Wake’s six ACC wins have come at home, against Duke, Virginia Tech, FSU and Clemson, a solid group of wins. Their two road wins came against BC and Louisville, so it’s fair to wonder whether they can keep this up when the schedule gets tougher.

Wake does already have a win over Clemson under its belt as the Deacs head through a rough stretch of games, with UVa this weekend before a road trip to Pitt, a home date with NC State and a road trip to Cameron Indoor.

Still, they are at home against UVa and they have a chance to make a statement.

For Virginia, this is a game where the Wahoos can prove that they truly are improving and emerging as one of the conference title favorites as expected and can get it done away from JPJ. Like Wake, four of UVa’s six wins in league play have come at home (FSU, Syracuse, UNC and VT) and the Cavaliers have a 2-2 mark away from home with wins over Georgia Tech and FSU and losses to the two decent teams they’ve had to play.

Wake is a solid team that is working its way towards the NCAA Tournament bubble and if the Demon Deacons win tomorrow it will be hard not to take their ACC title chances more seriously.

Still, we trust UVa just a bit more right now than Wake, despite the game’s location. It’s a contest that could go either way, but we’ll take the Wahoos to keep up their hot form and slow down the Deacs in The Dash.