No. 22 Virginia (9-1) at Memphis (8-2)

7 p.m., ESPN2

After pulling out a narrow victory and surviving an upset bid on Saturday, UVa will travel southwest for its first road game of the season, when the Wahoos face off against Memphis tomorrow night. The Cavaliers are looking to put a rough outing against Northeastern in the rear view and earn another impressive win for their resume in the process.

Standing in their way, the Tigers enter winners of three straight after dropping back-to-back games away from home against Villanova and Ole Miss. Since then, Penny Hardaway’s group, which is likely to be ranked later today, has beaten VCU and Texas A&M on the road and handed previously unbeaten Clemson its first loss of the season on Saturday. In addition to those recent wins, Memphis also beat Missouri, Michigan and Arkansas, all away from home, earlier in the year.

Tuesday’s matchup will be UVa’s first true road game, despite having already played three games away from Charlottesville against power-conference competition. If Memphis is not the best team the Hoos have faced, its in the discussion, ranked behind Wisconsin (KenPom’s No. 17) and Texas A&M (No. 22) but having just beat the Aggies in College Station last week. Tomorrow’s game will also be the penultimate non-conference game for the Cavaliers, who will take a holiday break before hosting Morgan State next week and then turning their full attention to league play.

Memphis ranks 33rd nationally in KenPom’s efficiency metrics and is good on both ends of the floor. Offensively, the Tigers rank 28th in efficiency and have posted solid performances against some quality opponents. Tuesday’s game will be yet another pace clash for the Hoos, a battle they typically control. Memphis is the 21st-fastest team in the nation and has an average offensive possession of 15.5 seconds.

The Tigers haven’t been elite shooting the basketball but they’ve been good enough to win a lot of games. They are making 52.9 percent of their two-point attempts, 94th-best nationally, and 33.5 percent from deep, 169th nationally. They do get to the line a good amount and make 73.1 percent of their free throws. Memphis doesn’t have any glaring weakness on offense except for block rate, where it ranks 257th nationally.

On defense, Memphis has been very solid, ranking 28th nationally in efficiency. Like UVa, steals and blocks have fueled the Tigers throughout the season. They rank 55th nationally in steal rate and 66th in block rate. And like UVa, Memphis has struggled to keep opponents off the offensive glass. The Wahoos rank 278th nationally in offensive rebound rate allowed to opponents while the Tigers are 315th in that category.

David Jones, Forward

A senior forward now on his third school, Jones is having a career year at Memphis. Leading the team in scoring at 20.3 points per game, he has improved his two-point and 3-point field-goal numbers considerably and has consistently found ways to score the basketball. Jones, who began his career at DePaul before transferring to St. John’s prior to arriving in Memphis, has scored at least 22 points in each of the last five games, all against quality teams. He also had a season-high 36 points in the win over Arkansas in Atlantis. Expect to see Ryan Dunn draw the Jones assignment in this one, but UVa will have to be prepared to help out on him when he gets in the lane.

Jahvon Quinerly, Guard

Besides Jones, Quinerly is Memphis’ only player averaging double figures. And like Jones, he is now on school No. 3 as well after starting his career at Villanova then playing three years at Alabama. A longtime former UVa recruiting target, Quinerly is putting up 13.7 points per game, just below his career-best average (13.8 in 2021-22) and is averaging a career-high 4.9 points per game. The matchup between Quinerly and UVa’s guards, particularly Reece Beekman, will be fun to watch.

Caleb Mills, Guard

Another guard familiar to UVa, Mills is another new transfer for the Tigers this year, joining the program after two years at Houston and two more at Florida State. Memphis doesn’t need Mills to carry things on offense but he has carved out a nice role for himself, averaging 9.2 points and 3.8 rebounds per game. The 6-foot-5 Arden (NC) native has had some big nights and quiet ones this season, and is coming off of a 4-point effort in the win over Clemson. Mills scored 21 points over two games against UVa last year when he was with the Seminoles.

Jaykwon Walton, Guard

Yet another transfer, Walton comes to Memphis after two years at Georgia where he played sparingly, followed by a breakout 2022-23 season at Wichita State. Walton averaged 13.9 points per game for the Shockers last year and has been a solid addition for Hardaway and Co. Walton is scoring 9.2 points per game this season, making 35.1 percent of his 3-point attempts, and hauling in 4.2 rebounds per contest. He had a tough shooting night against Clemson on Saturday, going 0-for-6 from deep but still scored 10 points in the victory.

This should be an interesting and difficult test for UVa before heading into conference play. It’s a bit odd to see the first true road game come so late, and Memphis does have a bit of a non-traditional home-court environment, playing at the FedEx Forum which is home to the Memphis Grizzlies.

The Tigers have had just three home games of their own this season but have won all of them. They are also coming in hot, and despite the fact that the Cavaliers have won five straight since losing to Wisconsin, they aren’t exactly coming into this one with all the momentum. They were off for 11 days, of course, and then nearly lost to a 4-7 Northeastern team at home.

UVa has to hope that it can manage against the Tigers with some of the rebounding issues they’ve had, and that they can keep the boards relatively even. Memphis doesn’t have a big frontcourt after 6-foot-11 Jordan Brown seemingly left the team after playing the first six games, but Hardaway does have some size across the lineup, with four of the five starters 6-foot-5 or taller. How UVa fairs on both ends in the big ticket matchups, Quinerly vs Beekman, Jones vs Dunn, will probably determine the outcome. UVa also has to shoot the ball better than it did on Saturday against the Huskies, and hopefully that performance was more of a one-off rusty game after a long hiatus.

Regardless of outcome, given how UVa’s schedule worked out this year, this seems like a smartly-scheduled series for the Hoos, giving them a challenging opponent with athleticism that will help prepare them for league play and potentially a signature win.

KenPom likes Memphis to win a close one, and given how the Tigers have played of late, they certainly could take care of business here. But we’re going to go with the Hoos, knowing that this is a good opponent on their home floor. Virginia’s style could make the Tigers a bit uncomfortable, and if UVa can earn stops in the half-court, perhaps the Cavaliers can wear Memphis down and come out with a win. That’s what we’re going with in a game that could certainly go either way.