No 15 North Carolina Tar Heels (4-1, 4-1 ACC)

Head Coach: Mack Brown (255-129-1 Overall, 80-53-1 at UNC)

Series: UNC leads 63-57-4

Last Meeting: The Cavaliers beat the Heels 38-31 in Chapel Hill last year.

Performance: UNC was potent and effective last year, and in the first half of their 2020 slate the Heels have have continued that success. They are averaging 37.8 points per contest and scored 48 points or more in wins over Virginia Tech and NC State. Carolina is averaging nearly 7.3 yards per play and has gone over 500 yards of total offense in each of the last three games.

The Tar Heels have been efficient on offense, and good in important situations. They have converted 46.6 percent of their 3rd-down tries, ranking 30th-best nationally. In the red zone they have converted nearly 87 percent of their trips into points and are 25th nationally in red zone TD percentage. Carolina also thrives when creating big plays: The Heels rank third nationally in plays of 10 yards or more and eighth nationally in plays of 20 yards or more.

The passing attack draws a lot of the headlines but the offense has balance with capable players in every phase. UNC has thrown for 1,411 yards and 10 touchdowns this year, once again led by sophomore quarterback Sam Howell. But the running game has been solid as well, with 1,245 yards on the ground and 15 touchdowns in five games played. The Heels are averaging 5.7 yards per carry and can certainly beat a defense on the ground if they preoccupy themselves with stopping big pass plays.

Scheme: UNC’s offensive philosophy is based on spreading the field, creating mismatches, and getting number advantages in the run game. The receivers are so talented, as is their quarterback, that opponents have to defend the big play at all times, which can take focus away from the running game. When defenses have a numbers disadvantage up front, the Heels have no problem running the ball right up the middle or off tackle.

Our first play is a staple of their offense, a traditional draw play. UNC has a pair of talented backs in Michael Carter and Javonte Williams, both of whom can fight through tackles up the middle and also run away from defenders in the open field.

UNC sets up its pass plays with these runs. Like many teams do, the Heels use the draw look to throw over the linebackers, who are drawn in towards the line of scrimmage. Watch as Virginia Tech’s linebackers get sucked up towards the line of scrimmage as Howell fakes run, and a good route from Dazz Newsome fools the defender responsible for him, creating a big gain.

Once they have softened a defense up with runs and short-to-intermediate throws, they can go over the top. Carolina has a pair of future NFL receivers in Newsome and Dyami Brown, both of whom can take the top off any defense.

On this play, Carolina has a similar run fake at the snap and Howell throws a perfect ball to Brown, who makes a nice catch for the touchdown.

The offense is not simply built around having a speed advantage though. Their route tree sets defenses up to fail and create matchup advantages for Howell to exploit. On this play against NC State, Carter comes out of the backfield and runs what amounts to a wheel route, getting an advantageous matchup with a linebacker. The result is an open target for Howell and a big completion.

QB Sam Howell

Stopping Howell, or at least keeping him from having a huge day, is priority No. 1 for UVa’s defense. He had a big game in last year’s meeting but the Wahoos made enough plays, particularly down the stretch, to keep the Tar Heels from winning. UVa has only forced one turnover since the win against Duke and forcing Howell into a mistake or two would be a huge win for the Cavaliers tomorrow night.

RB Javonte Williams

One half of UNC’s two-headed monster at running back, Williams has been a touchdown machine for the Tar Heels. Through five games, he has scored 10 times with at least one in every game. Williams is more of a goal line threat than Carter but is just as capable of taking runs for big gains on any carry.

Performance: The sample size isn’t as large but UNC’s defense seems to be about where it was last year, with many players returning from the 2019 team. The Heels have allowed 25 points per game and have held three opponents to 22 points or less. Their outlier performance came in a 56-45 shootout win over Virginia Tech, while their 31 points allowed against FSU had a lot to do with the offense giving the ball away.

Opponents are averaging 5.5 yards per play and 4.1 yards per carry, both solid figures for Carolina. The Tar Heels have forced five turnovers, with four interceptions and one recovered fumble. UNC has been strong on 3rd down, allowing just 27 conversions on 72 attempts, or a 37.5 percent success rate. Carolina has also created four stops on 18 red zone possessions as well, huge swings that can change games. The defense does a pretty good job getting after the quarterback too: The Tar Heels, like Virginia, have 15 sacks in five games, which ranks 15th nationally.

Scheme: Carolina runs what amounts to a modified 3-4 scheme and usually have two down linemen with two edge rushers standing up, as can be seen in the formation above against Syracuse. The scheme is creative and brings a lot of pressures from different areas, with a reasonably high blitz rate.

The best defender is linebacker Chazz Surratt, who has been a consistent force in the middle after transitioning over from quarterback several years ago. Carolina uses him in a number of ways, rushing the passer and sitting back in coverage as well.

On this play below, Surratt hovers around the line of scrimmage in a spy role, waiting for a quarterback scramble or to cover anyone leaking out of the backfield. The pressure gets home and the quarterback is sacked, but this is the type of play Carolina will run quite a bit on 3rd downs and on other big plays.

Here is an example of a creative blitz for the Carolina defense, bringing a cornerback off the edge. The defensive line does a solid job keeping FSU QB Jordan Travis in the pocket, allowing safety Don Chapman to get home from a slot position, and create a big 3rd-down sack.

The Heels defense thrives when they can create pressure but are susceptible to big plays when they don’t. Here is a play against Florida State where pressure forces Travis into a mistake, creating a big turnover for the Tar Heels.

And here is another play with a lot of pressure but not enough to stop the pass from being completed for a touchdown. The pressure itself is solid, but this play does demonstrate what can happen in the secondary if a quarterback is able to get the throw off. UNC hasn’t been terrible against big plays, but over the past two years the Heels have proven to be vulnerable to them at times.

LB Chazz Surratt

As we mentioned above, Surratt is the top player on Carolina’s defense. He led the team in tackles last year with 115 and is on top again in 2020 with 32 stops in five contests. Surratt also leads the team in sacks with four and has 4.5 tackles for loss and an interception as well. Virginia relies on quarterback run schemes quite a bit and Surratt will be the player the Hoos will have to scheme around in the middle of the Carolina defense on those plays.

LB Tomon Fox

Tomon is one of two Fox brothers in the Carolina defense and is another effective linebacker along with Surratt. Fox also has four sacks on the season, and has 25 tackles on the season. The 6-foot-3, 255 pound senior linebacker lines up on the edge and will be one of Carolina’s primary pass rushers in Saturday’s game.