Published Feb 2, 2024
Preview: Huge opportunity ahead for the Hoos in Clemson
Justin Ferber  •  CavsCorner
Editor In-Chief
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@justin_ferber


Virginia (16-5, 7-3 ACC) at Clemson (14-6, 4-5 ACC)

2 p.m., ESPN


Winners of five straight, UVa heads into February with a bunch of big games on the horizon. A much tougher stretch starts on Saturday, when the Cavaliers travel to Clemson. With a win, UVa will either be alone in 2nd place in the ACC, or within one game of first place, depending on the result of the Duke/UNC game Saturday night.

Clemson’s 4-5 league record might make fans think that the Tigers have struggled this year but they have solid metrics and would be a quality win. Ats 14-6 on the season after starting 9-0 and grabbing a number of impressive non-conference wins, Clemson has been more up-and-down the calendar turned to January. The Tigers won their ACC opener against Pitt back in early December but then lost four of their next five in conference play, with the lone win coming at home against Boston College. They also have a home loss to Georgia Tech on their resume but they nearly beat Duke on the road last week, and have won three of their last five games.

Saturday’s game will be a big test to determine how much growth UVa has had in recent weeks. The five game winning streak has come against some of the league’s worst teams and a pair just over .500, both at home. Now, they go on the road to face a quality opponent against a team that has lost a couple of home games in league play already.


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The Numbers


From a resume standpoint, this is the third-best opportunity for Virginia to pick up a quality win. Clemson ranks 28th in the NET and since this game is on the road, its a Quad 1 opportunity for the Hoos. UVa is currently 1-2 in Quad 1 games, beating Florida and losing to Wisconsin and Clemson ranks 32nd in KenPom, one spot behind the best team UVa has beaten this year (UF).

The Tigers are solid on both ends of the floor, ranking 21st in offensive efficiency and 71st on the defensive end. On offense, Clemson ranks 46th nationally in effective field-goal rate and shoot s55.2 percent on twos and 35.2 percent on 3s. The Tigers do a good job taking care of the basketball and don’t allow many blocks. They also cash in at the free-throw line, making 77.9 percent of their tries, which is 17th best nationally in the category.

Defensively, Clemson isn’t quite as good as on offense but is far from bad. The Tigers do a good job preventing offensive rebounds, ranking 36th nationally in that category. They’re also 33rd in block rate but they don’t create many turnovers, though, ranking 332nd in turnovers forced per possession.


The Matchups


PJ Hall, Forward

Clemson’s top scorer is also one of the nation’s best big men. Hall is averaging 19.9 points and 7.1 boards per contest in his senior year. The Spartanburg native has had some big-time performances of late, including a 25-point effort against Louisville on Tuesday and recently went for 31 points and 17 rebounds against Georgia Tech. Hall had two solid games against UVa last year, scoring 19 in the regular-season meeting and going for 13 points and 10 rebounds in the ACC Tournament.


Joe Girard, Guard

UVa has plenty of experience going up against Girard, just not in a Clemson uniform. The former Syracuse guard has provided a nice scoring punch for the Tigers since joining via the transfer portal. He is second on the team in scoring at 14.8 points per game and is a very good outside shooter, making 41.2 percent of his attempts.


Chase Hunter, Guard

The other key piece in a very experienced backcourt, Hunter is third on the team in scoring at 12 points per contest. The senior from Atlanta has scored 11+ points in each of Clemson’s last four contests, including a 16-point effort in Tuesday’s win over Louisville. UVa did a good job locking him down last year, holding Hunter to just 12 total points across the two games.


Ian Schieffelin, Forward

One of the more underrated players in the conference, Schieffelin does a little bit of everything. He averages 9.3 points per game, makes 55.6 percent of his 3-point tries, and is an excellent rebounder at 9.6 per contest. The 6-foot-8 junior has been quiet in the last few games from a scoring standpoint but is capable of putting up numbers. He scored 20 points and grabbed 15 rebounds in Clemson’s loss to Georgia Tech on January 16.


The Outlook


The Wahoos have made it much more difficult to pick against them of late, even on the road. They’ve been better on both ends of the floor and seemed to have found a rotation that works. Different players have been hot on different nights, and as Notre Dame coach Micah Shrewsberry said on Wednesday, the fact that the Cavaliers may be hitting their stride now is a good sign.

With all that said, Clemson will be favored here and for good reason. The Tigers are an old team and Brad Brownell has taken them from just on the wrong side of the bubble last year to a likely tournament team this year. Virginia has proven it can go on the road and beat bad teams, now the Cavaliers have to show they can win away from Charlottesville against a decent opponent.

UVa does have a few things on its side here. Tony Bennett has gotten the better of Brownell over the years and the way Clemson likes to play usually lines up pretty well with what UVa does. The Hoos have also had success at Littlejohn Coliseum, where they haven’t lost in 11 years.

Still, we have to go with Clemson in this one considering the location of the game and its strengths. The Tigers big men should be a tough test for UVa and they have several guards who can hit outside shots and score in the paint. And in a game that may come down to free throws, one team is really good at making them and the other isn’t.

There’s no doubt that the Wahoos can win this one, though, and if they do it’s further proof that they’re trending upwards heading down the stretch.


The Pick

UVa 60

Clemson 64