After getting out of PNC Arena earlier this week with a closer-than-expected win, No. 3 UVa returns home for the first of a two-game stand that spreads across a full week and change as the Hoos host Miami tomorrow afternoon (2 p.m., Raycom).
It's not the sort of test you'd expect UVa (19-1, 7-1 ACC) to struggle with but given what happened against NC State the other night, you never really can tell. Virginia managed to score enough in overtime to win it but still came away with plenty to work on.
Still, this isn't a vintage Miami team by any stretch. The Hurricanes are already at the bottom of the pecking order in the league's with no signs of that floor being reached just yet. When you've lost seven of your last eight, you don't expect to go on the road and upset a Top 5 team especially when that team has had an extra day of rest and is looking to rebound from a bad outing.
Miami Hurricanes (9-11, 1-7 ACC)
Head coach: Jim Larranga, 35th year (640-424 overall, 170-90 in eight years at Miami)
Series: Miami leads the all-time series 12-10.
Last Meeting: The Cavaliers beat the Canes 59-50 in Coral Gables last season.
Three Things We Know
1. The season has been unkind to the Hurricanes thus far.
After three straight years that ended in the NCAA Tournament, it’s very unlikely that Miami will see postseason play this season. There were signs of struggle early on, when the Hurricanes dropped four straight games in November and December including a pair to Ivy League foes Yale and Penn. Things didn’t get any better once ACC play began, and the team's lone victory in eight tries came at home against Wake Forest, likely the worst team in the conference. Miami arrives in Charlottesville losers of four straight by an average margin of defeat of 13.3 points per game during that span. Outside of the win over Wake, Miami has played just two conference games that were decided by eight points or less, a pair of losses to NC State and Florida State. There are opportunities for wins ahead but the Hurricanes still have to play at UVa, UNC, and Duke over the next four weeks.
2. According to the metrics, Miami is average on both ends of the floor.
Picked 10th in the ACC preseason poll after finishing tied for third last year, Miami ranks 98th nationally according to KenPom ahead of just BC and Wake in the league. Unlike most teams in the conference, Miami doesn’t appear to have any glaring strengths or weaknesses on both ends of the floor. On offense, the Canes rank 71st nationally and play at a relatively slow pace. They shoot 35.3 percent from beyond the arc (118th best nationally) and turn the ball over on 17.7 percent of possessions, which doesn’t really move the needle either way. Miami does have a tendency to struggle in the post and on the offensive glass while also getting blocked more often than the average team. On defense, Miami ranks 147th nationally in efficiency and has issues protecting the rim. Opponents are shooting 52.5 percent on two-point field-goal attempts, which ranks 260th in the nation. One area where the Hurricanes do a pretty good job is in not sending opponents to the free-throw line too often. Opponents score just 12.8 percent of their points at the line, which is third fewest nationally for any defense.
3. Its backcourt provides Miami’s primary scoring options.
Part of the reason for the step back this year was the loss of Dewan Hernandez (formerly Huell), who was ruled ineligible for the season by the NCAA after finishing as the team’s second-leading scorer last year with 11.4 points per game. Without him, the Canes rely pretty heavily on guards to produce their scoring. Chris Lykes has gone from an exciting role player to a primary scoring option, as he leads the team in points per game, averaging 16.8. Lykes is also the team’s top distributor with 3.5 assists per game. Though he stands just 5-foot-7, his ability to attack off the dribble and get to the rim makes him a tough cover for opponents, and it will be interesting to see how much Tony Bennett employs Kihei Clark to guard the sophomore guard on Saturday. Lykes is joined in the backcourt by a trio of wings, Dejan Vasiljevic, Anthony Lawrence, and Zach Johnson. Vasilijevic and Lawrence are Miami’s two best 3-point shooters, averaging 40.9 and 36.6 percent from deep respectively. Johnson, a transfer from Florida Gulf Coast, shoots plenty of 3s himself but also has the ability to make plays at the rim. He has a pair of 20-point games in ACC play against NC State and Florida State.
Two Questions
1. Can UVa spell Ty Jerome and other key players?
Bennett mentioned after Tuesday night’s overtime win at NC State that Jerome was dealing with some back soreness down the stretch in that game. Jerome was able to play through it, and fortunately UVa was able to get the win in the process. There has been no indication that his back issue is serious but the schedule provides an opportunity for the Cavaliers to get their junior point guard some added rest in the coming days. After hosting Miami, UVa is off until next Saturday when the Wahoos host Duke in what should be one of the defining games of the season. Considering the fact that Miami has been blown out often during conference play, UVa has a chance to get a big lead tomorrow and allow Jerome to play fewer minutes, and then use the days off to rest before resuming the ACC grind next weekend. Obviously you cannot take a win for granted but the schedule does provide an opportunity for Virginia’s entire team to take a breath before the back end of the conference schedule arrives.
2. Was Tuesday night’s sloppiness a blip on the radar or something more problematic?
The near loss on at NC State was an uncharacteristically sloppy performance for the Wahoos. Granted, it came in a tough road environment against a ranked team, but the Cavaliers put a premium on efficiency on both ends of the floor and struggled at times to maintain that in Raleigh. UVa’s 16 turnovers tied a season high and are out of character, a stark contrast to the performance in South Bend that included just two giveaways. NC State deserves some credit for taking UVa out of its comfort zone, and it remains to be seen whether or not other teams will be able to copy that approach and use it as their own. Tuesday’s game was a reminder that no team is perfect and anyone can lose on a given night, but hopefully for the Wahoos, that’s all it is, and not something that could recur down the road.