Preview: No. 10 UVa looking to extend Tech's losing streak

Virginia Tech (11-6, 1-5 ACC) at No. 10 UVa (13-3, 5-2)

7 p.m., ESPNU

Winners of three straight, UVa returns home tonight looking to stay hot, when the Wahoos host arch-rival Virginia Tech at JPJ. Virginia’s wins over Syracuse, UNC, and FSU moved the Cavaliers to 5-2 in ACC play as they look to keep pace with league leader Clemson and go on a run through the month of January.

While the Hoos are rolling heading into this rivalry game, the same cannot be said of their opponent. The Hokies got off to a strong 11-1 start that included wins over Penn State, UNC, Dayton and Oklahoma State. And then the wheels fell off, starting with an overtime loss to struggling Boston College. Ultimately that would turn out to be the first of five straight Ls, with close defeats to Wake, Clemson and NC State, and a more lopsided loss at Syracuse last week.

Tech had a week off to prepare for UVa, which could come in handy as Mike Young’s team looks to get healthy and reset after a rough start to 2023. Senior guard Hunter Cattoor has been hurt since the BC game, missing the last four contests. He was a game-time decision for last week’s game at Syracuse and appears very likely to return to action in Charlottesville, which could change the outlook for this game and Tech’s season overall.

The Hokies rank 45th in KenPom through 17 games, mostly based on their preseason rank (No. 20) and a hot start. Certainly, Tech hasn’t been a top-50 team over the past several weeks, when it has not won a game.

Virginia Tech ranks 41st nationally in offensive efficiency after having a potent attack last year as well. The Hokies do a great job taking care of the basketball, ranking 10th nationally in turnover rate, and 31st in steal rate allowed. They are shooting 33.6 percent from 3, a number that could go up a bit with Cattoor’s return, and 54 percent on two-point tries. The Hokies don’t get to the line much, ranking 330th nationally in free throws per field-goal attempt.

On the defensive end, Tech ranks 61st nationally in efficiency. While the Hokies don’t turn it over much, neither do their opponents; the Hokies rank 259th in turnovers forced per possession. Tech opponents don’t shoot the ball particularly well from anywhere on the floor, though. Teams are shooting just 31.7 percent from deep and 46.4 percent from two, both averages are in the top-100 nationally, against the Hokies. Tech doesn’t boast a particularly formidable team in the post, and opponents score nearly 55 percent of their points from inside the arc.

For Virginia fans that haven’t watched Tech much this season, the Hokie lineup will feature a bunch of familiar faces and a couple newcomers.

Guard Sean Pedulla has gone from a role player to the team’s top scorer, averaging 16.8 points per contest this season. The sophomore guard scored just 5.4 points per game as a freshman, hitting a timely 3 here and there, but this season Pedulla has become a consistent scoring threat. He has hit double figures scoring in each game this season, including a 19-point effort against NC State recently. Pedulla shoots just under six 3-pointers per game and is making a third of his tries.

Versatile wing Justyn Mutts also returned for the Hokies and is a tough matchup for most teams. Mutts has been a threat to score and a menace on the boards, averaging 13.6 points and 7.9 rebounds per contest, with 3.9 assists per game on top of that. Mutts made nine of his 15 field-goal attempts in the last game out at Syracuse, chipping in 21 points and 9 assists in a losing effort.

Junior guard Darius Mattox is another returner to keep an eye on. He hit the buzzer beater to knock off Clemson in the ACC Tournament last year and spur the Hokies to an unlikely conference title. This season, Mattox is chipping in 9.2 points per contest, up from 6.4 points per game last season. And we mentioned Cattoor, who certainly appears like he’ll play minutes in this game. Before his injury, Cattoor was scoring 9.6 points per contest and was Tech’s top outside shooter, making 40.3 percent of his attempts. In his first game back, it remains to be seen how much an impact he’ll have.

Tech has a pair of key additions to the roster, too. First, 6-foot-9 forward Grant Basile transferred to Tech from Wright State and made an immediate impact when he got on the court for the Hokies. Basile is averaging 13.9 points and 5.6 rebounds per game, shooting 39 percent from long range, and scored 30 points in his Tech debut against Delaware State. Basile scored 26 points in 27 minutes in Tech’s loss at Syracuse last week. In addition to Basile, Tech got a boost last week when highly touted freshman guard Rodney Rice made his debut. Rice suffered an ankle injury in the summer that kept him out of the first 16 games of the season. He scored just one bucket in his season debut against Syracuse but played 29 minutes, which speaks to the type of role he will likely have as the season moves forward.

The rivalry matchups between the Hoos and the Hokies have typically been close games that have come down to the wire, with the actual results being pretty unpredictable game by game. Last year UVa beat Tech at home by two but the Hokies had a great look at a game winner on the final play, and simply couldn’t convert. UVa has typically gotten the better of the Hokies in Charlottesville while the games in Blacksburg have often gone the other way; Virginia hasn’t lost to Tech at home since February of 2018.

And while the rivalry game gives this contest another dimension, it’s hard to pick UVa to lose this one given how the two teams are playing. Even with Cattoor back, it’s hard to imagine him going straight into the lineup and being 100 percent. Rice’s emergence could be another complicating factor, but playing against the pack-line on the road in his second career game is a pretty tall task.

If UVa can play like the Hoos have in their three straight wins, they should take care of business and make it four straight victories. But given the nature of this rivalry, it probably won’t be an easy win if they are fortunate enough to get it.