Albany (5-9, 0-0 America East) at No. 13 Virginia (8-2, 1-1 ACC)
6 p.m., ACC Network
After two straight losses the Cavaliers have had eight days off to hit the reset button. Their winter break ends tonight when the 13th-ranked Hoos close their non-conference slate with a home date against the Albany Great Danes at JPJ.
Virginia is looking to shake off back-to-back losses to ranked opponents in Houston and Miami in a bit to gather some momentum heading into 2023 and the bulk of ACC play.
Following Wednesday’s contest, UVa will travel for back-to-back road tilts at Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh, looking to improve its 1-1 conference record in the process.
First, though, the Wahoos will have to get past the Great Danes, who come to Charlottesville sporting a 5-9 record led by Dwayne Killings, a former UConn and Marquette assistant in his second year in charge of the program (13-18 last year).
The Great Danes have beaten just three D1 teams, Presbyterian, LIU and Northern Illinois, all sub-300 in KenPom. Their game against Virginia will be their third against a top-100 KenPom team, having lost to FAU by 17 and Providence by 38 in their previous two tries.
The Numbers
Albany enters tonight’s game ranked 326th overall in KenPom, ahead of only one opponent that UVa has played (350th-ranked Monmouth). Simply put, the Great Danes haven’t been great on either end of the floor so far this season.
On offense, Albany ranks 298th nationally in efficiency. The Danes have simply struggled to hit shots, with a 46.3 percent effective field goal percentage, making just 44.7 percent of their twos. They are a bit better on 3s, making 32.4 percent of those attempts, which ranks 220th nationally. Albany shoots a good number of them, too, with 35 percent of its points coming from beyond the arc. The Great Danes are comfortable playing at a relatively slow pace, ranking 287th nationally in average possession length, which is on the slower end of the spectrum.
When playing defense, Albany ranks 321st in efficiency. The Great Danes are allowing opponents to make 57 percent of their two pointers, which is near the bottom nationally. Opponents get to the line a lot, too: More than 21 percent of Albany’s points allowed have come at the charity stripe. Opponents do so well at the line and around the rim against Albany that they don’t shoot many 3s, with just 29 percent of opponent attempts coming from distance.
The Matchups
Unlike most mid-to-low major programs, Albany gets significant scoring contributions from its frontcourt. Senior wing Gerald Drumgoole is his team’s top scorer in his first full season with the Great Danes. Averaging 14.3 points per contest and shooting 39.6 percent from deep, Drumgoole played just one game last season after transferring from Pitt before suffering a season-ending injury. He is coming off of a 23-point effort in Albany’s last game, a win over Northern Illinois. Freshman forward Jonathan Beagle has made an immediate impact, averaging 11.4 points and 6.7 rebounds per game. The 6-foot-9 Hudson Falls native has scored in double figures in each of Albany’s last three games, and has played a lion’s share of minutes for the Great Danes. In addition, 6-foot-7 sophomore Aaron Reddish is a capable scorer too, averaging 8.4 points per contest. Reddish is the younger brother of former Duke wing Cam Reddish.
In the backcourt, Albany doesn’t have a lot of prolific scorers, but there is experience there. Senior Da’Kquan Davis is averaging 7.9 points per contest, and scored 14 in the win over NIU. Fellow senior and Daleville native Sarju Patel is on his third school, after previous stints at VMI and Cornell. Patel is averaging 6.9 points per contest at Albany, and has 99 career games played under his belt. Finally, Merrimack College transfer Malik Elmead is a useful ball handler off the bench for the Great Danes, averaging 6.6 points and 2.3 assists per contest.
The Outlook
On paper, this looks like a perfect bounce-back opportunity for Virginia heading into 18 straight ACC games to end the season. Albany is one of the weaker teams that UVa will have played and the Hoos should be able to do damage in the paint and hopefully knock down some 3s to gain some confidence in the long ball moving forward.
All eyes will again be on Reece Beekman and his health, especially coming off of an extended break. This is a game where UVa should be able to give Beekman some rest with a trip to Atlanta on deck for Saturday.
Simply put, the Wahoos should roll here.