North Carolina (11-5, 3-2) at No. 13 UVa (11-3, 3-2)

9 p.m., ESPN

Virginia is set for another key game in the first half of its ACC slate with the North Carolina Tar Heels coming to JPJ for a late-night tilt.

While UVa took care of Syracuse at home on Saturday afternoon to improve to 3-2 in league play, Carolina had a similar result. The Heels dusted Notre Dame 81-64 at home, also moving to 3-2, as both teams now sit two games behind 5-0 Clemson.

Carolina started the season No. 1 in the polls and was picked to win the ACC, coming off of a somewhat surprising run to the national title game as a No. 8 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Heels handled their business against overmatched opponents to start 5-0 before thing went south in a hurry. They dropped four straight, though all four were to teams in the top 42 of the KenPom rankings: Iowa State, Alabama, Indiana and Virginia Tech. All of those loses were away from the Dean Dome as well.

But after that rough stretch, Carolina has been quietly improving. The Tar Heels have won six of their last seven, including victories over Ohio State and Wake Forest with the lone loss coming in a two-point setback at Pittsburgh on December 30th.

Now, UNC travels to Charlottesville for a clash between two teams that are looking to get on a roll through January and put themselves in a position to challenge for the league title.

A loss doesn’t ruin either team’s season, but whoever wins this game will be one big step closer to their long-term goals.

Carolina ranks 21st in KenPom coming into tonight’s contest and has one of the most efficient offenses in the country. The Heels rank 13th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and are elite in several areas. First, they do a nice job taking care of the basketball, ranking 19th nationally in turnover rate. UNC doesn’t get blocked much either and makes 53.8 percent of its two-point field-goal tries. Carolina gets to the line quite a bit, ranking 16th nationally in free-throws-to-field-goals ratio.

The Tar Heels aren’t a great outside shooting team at 31.9 percent for the year, but they have plenty of individuals capable of getting hot and exceeding that average. And as always, they are going to get out in transition and aren’t afraid to crash the offensive glass. And as always, UVa will try to get its defense set and avoid any points in transition.

UNC has been solid on the defensive end, ranking 70th nationally in defensive efficiency. The Heels don’t allow teams to get to the line much and do a good job on the defensive glass. They haven’t been able to create many takeaways, though, which does seem odd given the pace they like to play. Carolina ranks 329th nationally in turnover rate forced and 245th nationally in steal rate.

Carolina took a lot of momentum into the offseason from its tournament run and it’s easy to see why the Heels were the No. 1 team in the nation to begin this season. Simply put, they brought back most of their key players and added some supplemental talent to give them a roster that is very experienced and capable of beating any team they play.

Star forward Armando Bacot returned for another year in Chapel Hill and has been as expected through his first fifteen games of the season. Bacot is leading the team in scoring at 18.8 points per contest and he is hauling in 11.2 boards, too. He has done a solid job as a rim protector, too, creating 1.3 blocks per contest. Bacot is playing his best basketball heading into tonight’s game, too. In his last five games, he has scored at least 21 points in all of them, with three double-doubles including a 28-point, 15-ebound effort in the overtime win over Ohio State.

Veteran guards Caleb Love and R.J. Davis are back as well. Both players are averaging better than 16 points and 3.3 assists per game. They give Carolina a pair of athletic guards that can create their shot and knock them down as well as get to the rim and score there too. Neither Davis nor Love are lighting it up from the outside necessarily, as both average less than 35 percent from deep, but both players are more than capable of knocking down those shots and getting hot in a game. Davis had a 27-point game against Wake Forest last week, where he hit five of his eight 3-point tries.

There are a few other familiar faces back, like wings Leaky Black and Puff Johnson, and several newcomers that have made an impact, like freshmen guards Seth Trimble and D’Marco Dunn. Carolina also added Northwestern transfer Pete Nance to the roster in the offseason, though he has battled through some back issues of late. A 6-foot-11 forward averaging 10.9 points and 6.1 rebounds per game, he played just two minutes against Wake last week and missed Saturday’s game against Notre Dame. It seems that Nance is day-to-day at this point and whether he plays at UVa tonight could be a pivotal difference in the outcome.

This game should be another good atmosphere in Charlottesville and a tough test for both teams. Carolina has played better of late while UVa has been a bit more up-and-down, but the Hoos are at home, which could be a difference maker. KenPom gives UVa a 67 percent chance to win this game, and the fact that it’s at JPJ rather than the Dean Dome probably makes a big difference there.

Still, one thing that sticks with me when guessing the outcome is how Carolina took UVa apart in the two meetings last season, virtually with the same roster the Heels have today. They beat the Cavaliers by 15 at home last season in a game that wasn’t really close and then dusted the Hoos by 20 in the ACC Tournament. Granted, that was last year, but this Carolina roster seems to be set up pretty well to give UVa trouble with guards that can move the ball well and score from different areas and a dominant big man that is a matchup nightmare for opponents.

Make no mistake, UVa can win this game and will likely be a favorite at tip-off. But given UVa’s up-and-down nature and Carolina’s recent form, we’re going with the Heels in a close one at JPJ.