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Published Feb 24, 2021
Preview: No. 15 UVa hosts NC State for a rematch tonight
Justin Ferber  •  CavsCorner
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@justin_ferber

The Opponent


NC State (10-9, 6-8) at No. 15 Virginia (15-5, 11-3)

6:30 p.m., ACC Network


After consecutive losses on the road to Florida State and Duke, the Wahoos will look to get back on track with a home win over NC State tonight. The recent swoon has cost them first place in the ACC, and with three games to go UVa will look for a strong finish with a manageable schedule.

Wednesday’s game will be a rematch of a contest between the Cavaliers and Wolfpack that took place on February 3rd in Raleigh. UVa led most of the way but State kept the game close until the Wahoos pulled away in the final few minutes for a 64-57 road victory. That win moved them to 12-3 overall and 8-1 in ACC play, and was the first of four straight before their recent two-game losing skid.

Since losing to UVa, NC State has gone 3-2. The Pack destroyed undermanned Boston College in their next game before consecutive defeats to Syracuse and Duke. But heading into tonight’s game, the Wolfpack are riding a two-game winning streak.

State pulled a road upset at Pittsburgh last Wednesday before handling in-state rival Wake Forest on Saturday. At 6-8, NCSU still seems headed for a bottom half finish in the ACC and a short postseason but this team did push the Cavaliers to the end in the first meeting.


The Numbers


NC State ranks 71st in KenPom heading into this matchup as a top-100 team in efficiency with the ball and without it.

The Wolfpack rank 63rd in offensive efficiency and continue to shoot it relatively well. State shoots 36 percent from beyond the arc and made 8-of-19 in the 80-point effort against Wake Forest on Saturday.

The Pack get most of their production on two-pointers and shoot 52.7 percent on those attempts. Some 56 percent of their production comes on made twos, which ranks 36th-highest nationally. State’s players don’t get to the line much, and when they do they only make 69 percent of their attempts.

On defense, NCSU ranks 92nd nationally. Opponents shoot the ball relatively well against the Wolfpack, making 51.6 percent of their two and 35.4 percent of their 3s. Opponents also shoot a good number of outside shots, with just under 34 percent of attempts allowed coming from beyond the arc. Virginia’s numbers from deep were relatively pedestrian in the first meeting, with the Cavaliers knocking down six of 17 attempts, with two each from Sam Hauser and Trey Murphy.

NC State does excel when it comes to forcing mistakes, where it ranks 18th nationally in turnover rate. State also ranks 11th nationally in steal rate, with the more dangerous live-ball turnovers forced often leading to transition opportunities. UVa turned the ball over 11 times in the first meeting earlier this month.


The Matchups


NC State lost leading scorer Devon Daniels just before the first meeting against UVa. The team has continued to adjust to life without Daniels, and the offensive output in recent games shows that the Pack are making progress. They had five players in double-figures scoring against Wake Forest and another player with nine points. They have a balanced scoring attack that can rely on different players on different nights.

In the first meeting with Virginia, State did not have that balanced offensive attack. Junior wing Jericole Hellems was the star in scoring 23 points, which actually equaled 23 percent of State’s total production for the night. Hellems demonstrated a solid inside-out game, making three of his six 3-point attempts and six of his nine twos. He was the only State player to finish in double-figures that night.

Most of the Wolfpack production came in the frontcourt, with forwards D.J. Funderburk and and Manny Bates each chipping in nine points, while guards Braxton Beverley and Thomas Allen scored just eight points total in the losing effort. State made just four of 14 shots from long range and was almost totally focused on working the ball inside and doing damage there.


The Outlook

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