Published Nov 26, 2019
Preview: No. 7 UVa returns home to host the Black Bears tomorrow
Justin Ferber  •  CavsCorner
Editor In-Chief
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@justin_ferber

The Matchup

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Maine (2-3) at No. 7 UVa (6-0)

4 p.m., ACCN


The Wahoos return to the hardwood tomorrow afternoon after picking up two wins in Connecticut over the weekend. Their opponents will be the Maine Black Bears, who enter the contest at 2-3 on the year. Maine beat Div. I’s newest program, Merrimack College, in the season opener and will come to Charlottesville after a blowout win over non-D1 Maine Maritime on Sunday. The Black Bears lost their other three contests, to Harvard and then Portland and Washington, on a quick West Coast trip.

There really is no nice way to say this but Maine is historically one of the worst programs in the nation. The Black Bears have never made the NCAA Tournament and their 5-27 campaign last year wasn’t an outlier. In fact, they haven’t won double digit games since going 11-19 in 2013. They haven’t had a winning season since a 19-11 campaign in 2010. KenPom projects another tough year for Maine. In that simulation, the Black Bears win just 10 games and five in America East play.


The Numbers

According to the metrics, Maine is the worst team that Virginia will play this year. It sub-300 ranking on KenPom (316th out of 353 programs) is the only one that the Hoos currently have on their slate (Navy is closest at 297th). On both ends of the floor, the Black Bears are near the bottom in efficiency. Averaging 67 points per game, they are ranked 318th in offensive efficiency. On defense, they are 306th.

In a rare feat, the Cavaliers will play a team that plays slower than they do. Virginia ranks 351st in tempo and the Black Bears are 352nd. Maine turns the ball over far too frequently, giving it away on 23.5 percent of its possessions. The Black Bears are shooting 31.2 percent from 3, which isn’t great, but far better than Virginia’s 23.7 percent clip. Main also doesn’t get to the line much and scores most of its points on two-point field goals. On defense, the Black Bears don’t force turnovers to make up for the ones they are losing. They have also been vulnerable inside the 3-point line, allowing opponents to make 56 percent of their attempts on two’s. Their 3-point defense has been a bright spot, where they’re allowing opponents to make just 24.2 percent of their attempts, which is the 11th best average in the nation.


The Matchups

Maine’s lineup features three scorers averaging double figures, led by senior forward Andrew Fleming. The 6-foot-7 Fleming is averaging 20.4 points, 6.6 boards, and 3.2 assists per game, shooting 58 percent from the field. He has scored 10+ in each of Maine’s first five games, including a 37-point, 10-rebound effort in the opener against Merrimack. Fleming had a nice game against better competition as well, scoring 18 points in a loss at Washington last week. He is also the team’s best 3-point shooter, making 37.5 percent of his tries.

Fleming is complemented by the talents of guard Sergio El Darwich and forward Nedelijko Prijovic. El Darwich, a native of Lebanon, is averaging 12.6 points and a team-high 4.8 assists per game this year. He had his best game of the season at Portland, scoring 21 points and dishing out five assists while playing all 40 minutes. Prijovic, a 6-foot-8 forward from Serbia, is averaging 11.2 points and 7.6 rebounds per contest. Like Fleming, Prijovic did a nice job against Washington, scoring 18 points and grabbing five boards in Seattle. El Darwich and Prijovic are just two foreign players on a very international roster. Twelve of the 16 players listed on Maine’s roster are from outside the United States, hailing from countries like England, Canada, Serbia, Sweden, Denmark, and more.


The Outlook

This game should be quite straightforward. Virginia did a nice job rallying to beat Arizona State to stay unbeaten after allowing 19-straight points, but the Hoos should face no such drama on Wednesday afternoon at JPJ.

This is the type of game where you would like to see UVa assert its will on offense and play a more complete and efficient game after some clunkers on that end of the floor to open the season. Virginia now ranks first in adjusted defensive efficiency but the offensive ratings are plummeting after some favorable projections.

The Cavaliers are now 65th in adjusted offensive efficiency, averaging just 56.7 points per game, and are 10 spots from the bottom nationally in 3-point shooting. This game is an opportunity for them to get right on the offensive end against an overmatched Maine squad.


The Pick:

Maine 37

UVa 67

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