No. 13 Virginia (12-3, 4-2 ACC) at Florida State (5-12, 3-3 ACC)
4 p.m., ESPN2
Following a critical home win over North Carolina on Tuesday night, UVa goes back out on the road this weekend with a trip to Tallahassee for a rematch with Florida State. The back-to-back home wins in the last week have the Hoos tied with four other teams for third place in the conference behind Clemson (6-0) and Miami (5-1).
Saturday’s game will be the first rematch of Virginia’s slate, as the Cavaliers opened their conference schedule against FSU at JPJ in December. The Noles entered that game with a woeful 1-8 record, losers of five straight, but ultimately gave the then unbeaten Hoos quite a scare. They led by as many as four and took a 22-21 lead into halftime. Virginia played better in the second half, eventually taking a 51-39 lead with 4:09 to play, seemingly coasting to another win. FSU tightened the game, though, eventually making it a one-score contest with seven seconds to go, before Reece Beekman iced the game at the free throw line, in a 62-57 win.
Since then, FSU has played a bit better and despite a 5-12 record overall sits at 3-3 in league play. Since the loss at UVa that dropped the Noles to 1-9, they are is 4-3 with wins over Louisville, USC Upstate, Notre Dame and Georgia Tech, all at home. FSU’s three losses all came in convincing fashion, with a 14-point loss to St. John’s, a 19-point setback at Duke and on Wednesday, a 90-75 loss at Wake Forest.
The Numbers
FSU’s metrics weren’t great when these two teams met last month and they’re not great heading into this weekend’s clash either. The Seminoles rank 132nd nationally in offensive efficiency, and 218th on the defensive end of the floor.
With the basketball, Florida State is shooting 34.8 percent from 3, and its greatest strength is the ability to avoid live-ball turnovers, ranking 16th nationally in steals allowed. As for weaknesses, the Noles don’t make many two pointers, shooting just 47.7 percent inside the arc.
They also don’t do a great job on the glass on either end of the floor, ranking 324th in offensive rebounds allowed on a per-possession basis. Opponents are also shooting 36 percent from deep, which may bode well for the Wahoos. The Noles also don’t force many takeaways, ranking 237th nationally in turnover rate.
The Matchups
In the first meeting, Florida State lost wing Cam’Ron Fletcher for the season to a knee injury. The Seminoles are getting by without Fletcher but the loss is certainly worth noting heading into the rematch.
In that December game, junior wing Darin Green was the top scorer for the Seminoles, putting up 17 points and making three of his five attempts from deep. Green is averaging 14 points per contest this season and has been a consistent scorer in ACC play, scoring 18 points in a win over Georgia Tech, and 16 in a New Years’ Eve loss at Duke.
Matthew Cleveland was the only other Seminole in double figures in Charlottesville, scoring 11 in 36 minutes. Cleveland, who beat the Cavaliers on a buzzer beater last year, is the team’s top scorer at 14.7 points per game and has stepped up even more with Fletcher out. He scored 19 points at Wake Forest on Wednesday and had 21 in the win over the Jackets on Saturday.
Guards Caleb Mills and Jalen Warley both scored seven points in the first meeting with Virginia and have had solid moments throughout the season. Mills is the on-ball guard for the Noles, averaging 3.5 assists per contest to go along with a 13.3 point scoring average. Since his 7-point game in Charlottesville, Mills has scored in double figures in each subsequent game. Warley, a former Uva recruiting target, is a younger player that’s more of a work-in-progress at this point but he has played 30+ minutes in four of the past five contests, averaging 5.6 points and 3.9 assists per contest this year.
The Outlook
Virginia should be able to win this game. Florida State pushed the Hoos in the first meeting, but it became clear in the second half that they were easily the better team. Late scare aside, the Cavaliers have the edge here on both ends of the floor, and have more experience, depth and cohesion.
Still, the fact that the first game was tight and UVa even trailed at the break could give any fan pause heading towards tip-off. That and the fact that Florida State has been solid at home of late and hasn’t lost at the Tucker Center since November, take this from a slam dunk win to a game that UVa should win and needs to win but could lose if the Wahoos don’t bring the energy required.
Still, after two solid showings at home, they need to be able to take their momentum on the road and take care of business.