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Published Mar 1, 2021
Preview: Struggling Wahoos host Miami on Senior Night
Justin Ferber  •  CavsCorner
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@justin_ferber

The Opponent


Miami (7-15, 3-14) at No. 15 Virginia (15-5, 11-3 ACC)

6 p.m., ACC Network


After a weekend off, Virginia returns to game action tonight when the Miami Hurricanes come to town. The Wahoos, who most certainly will drop when the Associated Press updates its Top 25 later today, will be looking to snap a three-game losing skid against the Canes and finish the season on better footing. A win would guarantee UVa a top-three finish in the ACC, though the Cavaliers would still need help in the form of at least one FSU loss to have a shot to finish in first place as they were predicted to before the season began.

Miami, meanwhile, limps into this game currently in last place in the conference. A 66-58 loss at Clemson on Saturday made five-straight defeats for the Hurricanes, who have now lost nine of their last 10 with a home win against Duke on February 1st the only win since January 16th. A loss to Virginia would mean a month without a win for Jim Larranaga’s team, which heads to Charlottesville reeling and shorthanded.

Miami will become the first ACC team to play all possible opponents this year, with the Wahoos the only team they haven’t played to this point. The only other team in the league that could possibly play everyone in the conference barring a major shakeup is Virginia, which is scheduled to play its 14th and final opponent on Saturday when at Louisville.


The Numbers


Miami enters tonight’s game ranked 144th in KenPom. Among ACC teams, only Wake Forest (No. 155) is ranked lower heading into the final week of the regular season. On offense, Miami has been far from efficient this season. The Canes rank 207th in offensive efficiency, which is dead last by a mile in the ACC, ranking nearly 30 spots behind the next-worst team (Wake). They struggle to hit shots often, making just 48.2 percent of their two-point tries, and a woeful 29.5 percent from beyond the arc. Miami is average in terms of turning the ball over but gives up a ton of live-ball takeaways, the most dangerous kind of turnover, while almost never giving the ball away on dead-ball turnovers. The Hurricanes play at a relatively slow pace and in short they will need to play far above their season averages to have a shot to win at UVa.

On defense, Miami isn’t elite but is far better than when its got the basketball. The Hurricanes rank 116th in defensive efficiency, which ranks them 12th in the ACC. Opponents shoot 50.3 percent on twos and make 37 percent of their 3s, which could bode well for a UVa team reliant on making threes to be efficient. Miami doesn’t force a lot of turnovers but its steal and block rates are at an acceptable level. It’s biggest strength on defense is the ability to play without fouling. The Canes have the second-lowest free throw to field goal attempt ratio allowed nationally heading into tonight’s contest. That advantage could be offset by the fact that UVa’s offense isn’t reliant on getting to the free-throw line, where the Hoos rarely get opportunities because of their style of play.


The Matchups


As previously mentioned, Miami’s roster has been gutted by attrition throughout the season and the Canes head north with an undermanned roster. On Saturday, Miami announced that guards Chris Lykes and Harlond Beverley were ruled out for the season with injuries, a big blow to the the team’s scoring punch. Lykes was expected to be one of the league’s top scorers but he only played in two games this season, scoring 31 total points. Beverley, meanwhile, scored 6.7 points per contest in 19 games this season, and led the team in assists and steals per game.

Miami relies heavily on what’s left of its backcourt to carry the load on offense. Sophomore guard Isaiah Wong has been one of the conference’s breakout performers this season and has been a bright spot in a lackluster campaign from the Hurricanes. Wong is averaging 17.8 points per contest and in the last two games has been a fantastic scorer despite losing both games. He put up 29 against Florida State on Wednesday before a 28-point effort at Clemson on Saturday.

Oklahoma transfer Kameron McGusty is another primary scoring option for the Hurricanes, averaging 11.5 points per contest. McGusty was quiet in Saturday’s loss at Clemson with just six points in 37 minutes but he has scored in double-figures in six of 10 ACC games played this year. Another transfer, Elijah Olaniyi, has been an impact performer this season, averaging 11.3 points and 4.9 rebounds per contest. He played against Virginia last year when he was the top scorer for Stony Brook as he had 11 points in that 56-44 loss at JPJ.


The Outlook

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