Virginia (15-15, 8-11 ACC) at Syracuse (12-18, 6-13 ACC)

8pm, ACCN

It’s been a season full of change and challenges for UVa basketball, and tonight, the Cavaliers wrap up their regular season at Syracuse (8pm, ACCN). Virginia has been hanging right around .500 for the last month, never more than a game above or below since February 3rd, and tonight’s season finale will determine whether the Hoos finish the year above or below .500; UVa hasn’t had a losing season since going 15-16 in the 2009-10 campaign.

While UVa has traded wins and losses of late, tonight’s opponent comes in as one of the coldest teams in the conference. On February 8th, Syracuse was 5-8 in ACC play, and since, they’ve lost five of their last six, including a pair of close losses in the last week to Virginia Tech and SMU. The Orange are safely in the ACC Tournament, but are locked into a Tuesday game, and will finish below UVa no matter what happens tonight. Syracuse hasn’t beaten a team that will participate in the ACC Tournament since knocking off Cal on February 1st; their only wins since are a triple-OT victory over BC on February 8th, and a comfortable home win over NC State on February 26th.

UVa has an eye on ACC Tournament seeding today, and because they play the final conference game of the day, the Hoos will have a clear picture of what their scenarios are as the game tips off. UVa can finish as high as the #9 seed, which would come with a first-round bye, or they’ll play in the first round, seeded between #10 and #12. UVa can clinch the #9 seed with a win tonight, coupled with a Virginia Tech loss to Clemson. They can also get it if both the Hokies and Notre Dame lose, or if all three of VT, Georgia Tech and Boston College lose. So there’s a chance the Cavaliers could lock up the #9 seed before they even play. Or, if Tech beats Clemson, UVa’s hopes of a first-round bye will be dashed before they tip off. UVa cannot finish lower than the #10 seed if they win tonight, and there’s almost no chance they’ll fall below the #11 seed.

Syracuse enters tonight’s game ranked #119 in Kenpom, 21 spots behind UVa. Despite being six games under .500, the Orange are slight favorites to win this one, according to the computers. On offense, Syracuse ranks 101st nationally in efficiency. The Orange are not a particularly good shooting team, making just 33.2 percent of their threes, and 51.8 percent of two pointers. They also give the ball up quite a bit, ranking 213th nationally in turnover rate, and 311th in steal rate. The Orange also struggle at the line, making just 70.7 percent of their attempts.

Defensively, the story isn’t much better for the Orange. Syracuse ranks 171st in defensive efficiency and are below average in most categories, and pretty far below average when compared to other power-conference programs. Cus ranks 277th in effective field goal rate allowed, and opponents are making 34.7 percent of their threes, and 53.5 percent of their two’s. Because they play so much zone, Syracuse is one of the worst in the nation when it comes to creating turnovers, and particularly, live-ball turnovers that can turn into transition points. The Orange are 346th nationally in turnovers forced per possession, and 350th in steal rate.

JJ Starling, Guard

Syracuse’s leading scorer, junior guard JJ Starling has had to carry a lot of the weight for the Orange on the offensive end. Starling is scoring 18 points per game in his third season in Central New York, and dishes out 2.8 assists per contest. Starling has scored in double figures in nine straight games, including three straight 20+ point efforts against BC, Miami and UNC. Starling isn’t much of an outside shooter, making just 26.5 percent of his threes, and 29.6 percent for his career, but that doesn’t stop him from taking them, as he hoists nearly six triples per contest.

Chris Bell, Guard

Another veteran for the Orange, Chris Bell has actually taken on a smaller role this season, playing five fewer minutes per game. Bell’s scoring has dropped off a bit too, from 12 points per game last year to 9.9 per contest this season. Bell is one of the team’s top outside shooters, making 37.1 percent of his attempts; he’s a career 38.7 percent three-point shooter.

Eddie Lampkin, Center

A physical presence in the post, Eddie Lampkin is probably a familiar face to hoops fans that watch the NCAA Tournament, as he has shined for two different schools in the Big Dance. Prior to moving to Cuse, Lampkin starred at TCU and Colorado helping both of those programs make it to the second round of the NCAA’s or beyond. Lampkin is having a career year offensively with the Orange, averaging 11.1 points per game, along with 9.6 boards. Lampkin has had a few monster games this season, including a 26-point, 11 rebound effort against UNC last month.

There’s been a lot of talk in the UVa community about how much this Cavalier team has improved, if at all, or if their uptick in wins is simply a byproduct of a more favorable stretch of the schedule. Well, regardless of what Kenpom or Vegas say, if UVa has truly made strides, they should be able to win this game. Frankly, Syracuse’s profile looks pretty hapless, and despite being in some games, they have struggled against pretty much any team with a pulse, and the losses have mounted up. UVa is on the road tonight, but the Carrier Dome hasn’t exactly been a house of horrors for opponents. Syracuse is just 4-5 in home league games this year, and have lost four of their last six on their floor.

We’ll go with the Hoos in a close one, to finish their regular season above .500 and go into the postseason with a 9-11 conference record.