Memphis (8-2, AAC) at Virginia (6-4, 0-1 ACC)

7pm, ESPN2

After nearly a week off, UVa returns to the hardwood on Wednesday night to face another difficult challenge in what has proven to be a tough non-conference slate. The Wahoos will host 8-2 Memphis at JPJ, closing out a home-and-home series between the programs. Last year, Memphis took it to the Hoos at the FedEx Forum, rolling to a 77-54 win in mid December.

UVa has struggled against competitive teams that they’ve played early in this season, and Memphis looks quite competitive heading into tonight’s affair. The Tigers are 8-2 on the year, with losses to #2 Auburn and an upset loss to Arkansas State earlier this month. Penny Hardaway’s group has had their fair share of good moments too though, beating UConn and Michigan State in the Maui Invitational, along with wins over top-100 Missouri, San Francisco and Clemson, with only one of those wins coming at home.

Like many teams, the Tigers have rebuilt their roster through the transfer portal, and it seems that they’ve found success in turning over their roster. At this point, it seems far more likely than not that the Tigers will improve on their 22-10 2023-24 season, and get back to the NCAA Tournament after a one-year absence.

Memphis enters tonight’s game ranked #34 in Kenpom, coming off of their overtime road win at Clemson. The Tigers are UVa’s fifth top-50 opponent this season, with the Cavaliers losing all four of those games thus far. In fairness, Villanova is just outside that group at #51 and UVa beat them last month.

The Tigers have been solid on both ends of the floor, but have had a very efficient offense. Memphis ranks 23rd nationally in offensive efficiency, and have been one of the best outside shooting teams in the country. Memphis ranks 2nd in three-point percentage at 44.3 percent, and made 12 threes in Saturday’s win at Clemson. Memphis shoots just 48.7 percent on two-point tries though, ranking 239th nationally. The Tigers also struggle with turnovers, ranking 285th in turnover rate, and 294th in block rate allowed. Still, the Tigers make so many threes that they can overcome other underperforming areas.

Defensively, Memphis ranks 60th nationally in efficiency, allowing 77.1 points per game. Their greatest strength defensively is causing havoc. The Tigers rank 111th nationally in turnover rate and 93rd in block rate. They also rank 87th in non-steal turnover percentage. But while Memphis shoots a great percentage from three, they also allow opponents to shoot 36 percent from beyond the arc. That cost them in their upset loss to Arkansas State, as the Red Wolves knocked down 12 triples en route to the surprise victory.

P.J Haggerty, Guard

Memphis’ leading scorer is guard P.J. Haggerty, now on his third school in three years. Haggerty received a medical redshirt after playing just six games in 2022-23 at TCU, before transferring to Tulsa, where he averaged 21.2 points per game. Now, as a redshirt sophomore, Haggerty is averaging 21.9 for the Tigers, shooting 39.4 percent from three, and adding 3.5 assists, 2.2 steals and 6 rebounds per game. Haggerty has had some massive performances already this season, going for 29 twice (UNLV, Arkansas State), and 20+ points in seven of the Tigers’ 10 games.

Tyrese Hunter, Guard

Another player on his third school, Tyrese Hunter is at Memphis after stops at Iowa State and Texas. Hunter is averaging a career-high 16 points per game, and shooting a whopping 51.6 percent from three. That’s a massive improvement, considering he’s never averaged better than 34.3 percent, but he’s shooting 6.2 threes per game, so it doesn’t seem particularly fluky, either. Hunter is coming off of a big performance at Clemson, hitting big shots down the stretch, scoring 23 points including seven made threes.

Dain Dainja, Forward

A senior from Minnesota, Dain Dainja began his career at Baylor, played two years at Illinois and now has landed at Memphis. The Tigers’ best interior scorer, Dainga is averaging 10.9 points and 6.3 rebounds per game, in just over 24 minutes of action per contest. Dainja is a physical presences at 6-foot-9, 271 pounds, and has two games this year with 11 rebounds or more.

This is going to be an uphill battle for the Cavaliers. Memphis has the better roster across the board, and are playing better basketball coming into the game. On top of that, their biggest strength, three point shooting, lines up with the pack-line’s greatest vulnerability. If UVa is going to win, they’re probably going to have to sustain their best basketball of the season for the entire 40 minutes, with a shooting effort close to what we saw when they played Villanova. And they’ll have to hope that the home crowd makes things difficult for the Tigers, which will be a bit tougher to accomplish during winter break.

We think Memphis controls this one and sends UVa to their fifth loss of the year, all coming against teams competing for NCAA Tournament spots.