#3 Duke (22-3, 14-1 ACC) at Virginia (13-12, 6-8 ACC)

8pm, ESPN

Fresh off of their win in Blacksburg on Saturday, UVa is back in action on a short turnaround, with a big challenge on deck. Winners of three straight, the Wahoos will host league leaders Duke tonight at JPJ (8pm, ESPN).

While UVa’s season took an unexpected detour in October, Duke’s season has largely gone as planned. Once again, the Blue Devils brought in a loaded class of freshmen, and brought back a couple of key pieces from last year’s team, to form this year’s national title-contending roster. Duke has been one of the nation’s best teams this season at 22-3, with all three losses coming away from home, to teams ranked in the top 23 of the Kenpom rankings (#19 Kentucky, #15 Kansas, #23 Clemson). Duke has won 16 of their last 17, with the loss at Clemson on February 8th the lone blemish since Thanksgiving, and only loss in conference play.

Virginia and Duke have had plenty of big games in the ACC in the last decade. The Hoos won the last clash in Charlottesville, beating Duke in overtime two years ago; Duke would exact revenge in the ACC Tournament title game a little over a month later. The Hoos and Blue Devils squared off just once last year, with Duke rolling to an easy 73-48 win at Cameron Indoor last March.

Ranked #2 in Kenpom, the Blue Devils are the top-ranked team the Hoos have faced this year, though they did already take on #4 Florida and #5 Tennessee in non-conference play. Duke’s high-powered offense ranks third in efficiency, and they are good in nearly every category. The Blue Devils are 7th in effective field goal rate, and shoot 37.8 percent from three (24th nationally) and 57.6 percent on two-pointers (15th nationally). Duke doesn’t turn it over much, either, ranking 37th in turnover rate, and are good at the free throw line too, making 77.4 percent of their shots from the line.

Defensively, Duke is just as good. They rank 4th nationally in efficiency, and have the best two-point defense in the country, allowing opponents to make just 42.4 percent of those attempts. Duke doesn’t send opponents to the line much, either, ranking 18th in free throws allowed per field-goal attempt. Duke also ranks 37th in offensive rebounder ate allowed, and 126th in turnover rate.

Cooper Flagg, Forward

Duke’s best player is also probably the nation’s best player. Freshman phenom Cooper Flagg has been exactly as advertised, scoring 19.8 points per game. The Maine native is the size of a forward at 6-foot-9, but can also play like a guard, which makes him a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses. Flagg can hit threes, making 37.8 percent of his attempts, rebound, at 7.5 boards per game, and help teammates, averaging 4 assists per game. Flagg has had a bunch of scoring outbursts this season, including a 42-point game against Notre Dame in January.

Kon Knueppel, Guard

Duke’s second-leading scorer was a player that UVa desperately wanted to land out of high school. A Wisconsin native, Knueppel has been very good for the Blue Devils, but simply overshadowed by Flagg’s greatness. Knueppel is scoring 13 points per game, shooting 37.7 percent from three, and hauls in 3.6 boards per game as well. Kneuppel has been a bit quieter of late, scoring just 15 points over the past two games, but has three 20+ point scoring efforts on the season.

Tyrese Proctor, Guard

Duke’s rosters have been led by freshmen in recent years, but junior guard Tyrese Proctor is a somewhat rare example of a highly-rated player sticking around for multiple years. Proctor, now a junior, is having his best season to date, scoring 12.2 points per contest. Proctor has become a deadly three-point shooter as well, making 41.2 percent of his attempts from beyond the arc. In three career games against Virginia, Proctor has scored 34 points.

UVa comes into Monday’s game winners of three straight and five of their last seven, but this game is going to be a different animal. In a weaker ACC, UVa hasn’t played a team of Duke’s caliber in conference play, and haven’t seen a team even close to their level since early December. Duke has been great all year, and despite last week’s loss to Clemson, are playing consistently excellent basketball. Despite their recent success, it’s difficult to imagine this UVa roster finding a way to slow down Flagg, and even if he has an off night, Duke has plenty of other guys to pick up the slack.

Virginia’s recipe to pull off one of the biggest upsets of the season would be to knock down a top of threes, probably 12 or more, in addition to taking care of the basketball and having an off night. It’s not a knock on UVa, as very few teams have been up to slowing down this Duke team, but this task just feels too big for the Hoos.