Virginia (13-13, 6-9 ACC) at North Carolina (16-11, 9-6 ACC)

4pm, ESPN2

Following a lopsided loss to Duke on Monday night, UVa is going back-to-back with blue bloods, traveling to North Carolina for a Saturday afternoon tilt at the Dean Dome. Monday’s loss dropped Virginia to 6-9 in ACC play with five games remaining; the Cavaliers are yet to beat a conference rival with a winning record in league play, but they’ll certainly have opportunities to do that down the stretch. UVa’s final five games feature three teams with winning records in ACC play, and another, Florida State, hovering around .500 at 7-8.

While UVa is coming off a blowout loss, UNC heads into the weekend riding high after dismantling rival NC State at home on Wednesday. The Tar Heels scored 54 in the first half on their way to a 97-73 win over the Wolfpack that improved them to 9-6 in ACC play. UNC has been competitive in league play but have had what can only be described as a disappointing season overall. After beginning the year ranked #15 in Kenpom and picked to finish 2nd in the ACC, UNC now sits on the outside of the projected NCAA Tournament field looking in, and will need a very strong finish to even have a chance at an at-large bid.

For UVa, the focus is on finishing strong, and securing a spot in the ACC Tournament. UVa sits three games up on the bottom three teams that are set to miss the postseason, and the Hoos can likely lock down a spot with one more win, though they may have already done enough. If they do get in, UVa is looking at an uphill battle to even get to the Quarterfinals, but avoiding the embarrassment of missing the field altogether would be a silver lining in what has been a difficult season.

UNC enters the weekend ranked #45 in Kenpom, fifth-best in the conference, behind Duke, Clemson, Louisville and SMU. The Tar Heels rank 39th in offensive efficiency, and as always, want to get out in transition and play a high-possession game. The Tar Heels rank 49th nationally in two-point field goal percentage, which helps make up for rather middling three-point shooting, at 33.2 percent. Carolina also does a good job taking care of the ball, ranking 41st in turnover rate, and 43rd in steal rate allowed. They play at the 24th-fastest pace in the country and are the most up-tempo team UVa has faced all season. Oddly enough, UNC, famous for crashing the offensive glass to create second-chance points, ranks 222nd in that category this year, with some new faces in the frontcourt. This is the first season they have not ranked in the top 200 nationally in that category since 2003, and second season in the Kenpom era where they’ve been outside the top 50.

Defensively, UNC is solidly above average at 64th nationally in efficiency. The Tar Heels don’t force many turnovers, ranking 312th in that category, and 287th in steal rate. However, their interior defense is solid, and they are 123rd nationally in block rate, and 85th in offensive rebounds allowed per possession. Carolina doesn’t send opponents to the line much, but unfortunately for them, a lot of those free throws allowed have gone in; opponents are hitting 75.4 percent from the line this year.

R.J. Davis, Guard

UNC’s experienced guard is once again leading the Carolina offense. In his fifth year in Chapel Hill, R.J. Davis is scoring 17.5 points per contest, dishing out 3.9 assists per contest as well. Davis’ scoring is down a little from last year, when he averaged 21+ points per game, but Davis remains the most-consistent threat Carolina has with the basketball. Davis is coming off of a 21-point game against NC State on Wednesday, and has scored in double figures in nine straight contests. This is Davis’ seventh game against UVa, and he’s hit double figures in four of the previous six.

Ian Jackson Guard

While Davis is UNC’s veteran scoring leader, his running mate is a player just beginning his collegiate career, but flashing big-time potential. Ian Jackson, a 6-foot-4 freshman from New York City, is second on the team in scoring at 13.6 points per game. Jackson hasn’t been quite as prolific in ACC play as he was early in the season; Jackson had a four-game stretch in December where he scored between 23 and 27 points in each game. Jackson had 23 at Syracuse last weekend, in part because he made five threes, but it was his only 10+ point game in the last six efforts.

Eliot Cadeau, Guard

Rounding out UNC’s trio of guards to watch is sophomore Eliot Cadeau, who has gone from a complimentary role last year into a more high-profile role this season. Cadeau is scoring 10.3 points per game, up from 7.3 last year, and has demonstrated much better outside shooting, going from 18.9 percent on threes to 30.8 percent this year. Cadeau is a solid scorer but he’s a better distributor, averaging six assists per game in his sophomore season. Cadeau has three double-digit assist games this season.

UNC will be favored in Saturday’s tilt, as they should be. While they’ve been far from what many thought they would be, the Tar Heels have been much better than Virginia this year, and it would be pretty easy to argue that this would be UVa’s most-impressive win of the season if they found a way to get it. The pressure on UNC coach Hubert Davis seems to be ramping up after he has been unable to follow up on UNC’s surprising Final Four run a few years ago with any meaningful postseason success, and with this season already looking doomed. A loss to Virginia at home would not help matters much.

For UVa, the recipe remains the same. They’ll have to hit a bunch of threes to win, and try to pick up the defensive effort after getting exposed against Duke. This is also a game where UVa shouldn’t be nearly as overwhelmed in the post and on the glass as they were against the Blue Devils, and this looks like the most manageable Carolina frontcourt the Hoos have faced in some time.

Still, we have to go with UNC in this one. The Tar Heels have too many ways to beat this UVa team, and they’re playing at home, with a lot more on the line than what Virginia is playing for. UNC is certainly not untouchable, but a loss to UVa would be their first to a team ranked below #89 in Kenpom, and would be a tendency breaker for the Wahoos, as well.