NC State (8-4, 1-0 ACC) at Virginia (7-5, 0-1 ACC)

Noon, ESPN2

After a nine-day holiday break, UVa is back in action on Tuesday, for a New Years’ Eve matinee against NC State (Noon, ACCN). Tuesday’s ACC home opener begins a 17-game stretch of conference play that will take the Hoos to the end of the regular season, when some major decisions about the future of the program will need to be made.

Virginia is looking for their first ACC win, after starting 0-1 in league play for the first time since the 2007-08 season. Their opponent, NC State, enters with an ACC win under their belt, beating Florida State at home in early December. The Wolfpack are 8-4 on the season, with a new-look team, attempting to follow up a shocking ACC Tournament and Final Four run with a solid 2024-25 campaign. In some ways, State’s early play has been similar to Virginia’s. The Wolfpack have beaten the teams that they should, though more convincingly than UVa has, and their four losses came to quality opponents. State dropped neutral court games to Purdue and BYU in November, and then lost to Texas at home in the ACC/SEC Challenge; they also lost at Kansas in mid-December. Three of the four losses came by double digits. Their best win on the year, by far, was that ACC opening victory over FSU, which required overtime.

The last time UVa and NC State met, the Wolfpack came out on top in overtime on their run to the ACC title. A heroic buzzer beater from Michael O’Connell sent the game to the extra session, and State ran away with it, nearly costing UVa an NCAA Tournament bid.

NC State ranks 85th in Kenpom heading into ACC play, 15 spots ahead of Virginia. The Pack are not elite on either end of the court, ranking 91st in offensive efficiency and 88th on the defensive end. The Wolfpack have not shot the three particularly well, at just 32 percent, ranking 231st nationally in the category. And for that reason, the Pack don’t shoot a ton of threes, with just 31.9 percent of their shots coming from beyond the arc. NC State has also struggled a bit at the free throw line, making just 69.1 percent of those attempts. They do take good care of the basketball, though, ranking 28th in turnover rate, 28th in steal rate allowed and 35th in block rate allowed.

Defensively, NC State does a good job taking the ball away, ranking 34th nationally in turnovers forced per possession. They’ve also held opponents to just 28.5 percent from beyond the arc, a number that could come up a bit once they start playing better teams more consistently in league play. The only true weakness on defense is allowing offensive rebounds; they rank 315th nationally in offensive rebound rate allowed, though UVa doesn’t crash the glass so perhaps that disadvantage will be negated.

Marcus Hill, Guard

A transfer from Bowling Green, Marcus Hill has made an immediate impact with the Wolfpack, leading them in scoring. Hill, a 6-foot-4 senior, is averaging 12.6 points, 3.3 rebounds and 2.1 assists per contest with NC State. Hill scored 20.5 points per game with Bowling Green, and will be a big part of any success the Wolfpack have in ACC play. Hill already has one big ACC performance under his belt, scoring a season-high 23 points in the win over FSU.

Jayden Taylor, Guard

In his second season with the Wolfpack, Jayden Taylor has slightly increased his scoring average to 12.4 points per game this season. Taylor started his career at Butler before moving to Raleigh last season, scoring 11.2 points per game. Taylor is coming off of one of his best games of the season, scoring 16 points in the December 22nd win over Rider.

Ben Middlebrooks, Forward

NC State’s top post scorer, Ben Middlebrooks is averaging 9.8 points and 4.5 rebounds per game. Middlebrooks posted a double-double in the season opener against USC Upstate, and has seven double-figure scoring efforts on the season. Middlebrooks had a big game off the bench for State in their last meeting against UVa, scoring 12 points and grabbing 6 boards in their ACC Tournament semifinal win over the Hoos.

NC State is far from perfect, and at this time, they don’t look like a team that will get back to the NCAA Tournament, though perhaps they’ll play their way in. But UVa has limped through the first couple months of the season, and outside of a good performance against Villanova, they have struggled against teams with solid talent, from major conferences. Surely UVa will win their share of ACC games, and the entire league has looked relatively suspect in non-conference play. But while NC State has work to do themselves, UVa seems further away from being competitive right now. The Hoos are at home, and maybe that will put them over the top in this one, but we’re still in “show me” mode with this team, and Tuesday will be another opportunity for them to prove that they can compete within the conference.