Louisville (9-5, 2-1 ACC) at Virginia (8-5, 2-1 ACC)

4pm, ACCN

Virginia returns to action on Saturday, looking to make it two in a row when they host Louisville at JPJ (4pm, ACCN). UVa rallied from 14 down to beat NC State on Tuesday, moving to 1-1 in ACC play heading into the new year.

UVa’s opponent on Saturday is also coming off of a big ACC win. Louisville moved to 9-5 with an impressive home victory over North Carolina, beating the Tar Heels 83-70, moving to 2-1 in ACC play. The Cardinals also have a conference win over FSU, and lost to Duke back in early December. Louisville is in year one of the Pat Kelsey era, having hired him away from Charleston after a successful run there. Kelsey has rejuvenated a dormant Louisville program with transfer portal additions and has put the Cardinals in a much more competitive situation than they have been in recent years.

Louisville played a tough non-conference schedule, and performed relatively well given how much change there has been around the program. The Cardinals scored wins over Indiana (#57 Kenpom) and West Virginia (#45), with their five losses on the season coming to opponents ranked in the top 40 of the Kenpom rankings, with varying degrees of competitiveness.

The Cardinals go into this weekend’s matchup ranked #54 in Kenpom, 48 spots ahead of Virginia. Kelsey has Louisville playing efficient basketball on both ends, with the Cardinals ranked 49th nationally in offensive efficiency, and 62nd on the defensive end. Louisville’s offense has been quite good in the paint, making 58.1 percent of their two-point field goal attempts, and have an efficient offense despite shooting just 29.5 percent from three, which ranks 312th nationally. They also take a lot of threes, which is a bit odd given how they’re shooting them. The Cards shoot the third most threes nationally, with 52.9 percent of their attempts coming from beyond the arc. Louisville gets to the line quite a bit though, ranking 55th in free throw to field goal rate.

On defense, Louisville has thrived creating takeaways. The Cardinals rank 74th nationally in turnover rate, and 23rd in non-steal turnover rate. Louisville’s opponents are shooting quite well from three, making 35.6 percent of their attempts from deep.

Chucky Hepburn, Guard

Louisville’s leading scorer, Hepburn has been an impact transfer addition from Wisconsin. A veteran guard who has played a lot of meaningful basketball, Hepburn has helped turn the Cardinals around, averaging a career high 15.9 points and 5.4 assists per game this season. Hepburn has played in 117 career games and started all but two of them, so UVa will be dealing with one of the most experienced point guards possible on Saturday. Hepburn also comes in hot, after scoring 22 in Wednesday’s win over UNC.

Terrence Edwards, Guard

After four years at JMU, Terrence Edwards landed with the Cardinals for his final season of college basketball. Edwards is a 6-foot-6 wing from Atlanta that can make plays with the ball in his hand off the dribble, and pulling up for jumpers. Edwards is averaging 14.1 points and 3.6 rebounds per game with the Cardinals, shooting 30.4 percent from three. The former Duke has scored 20+ points in four of his last six games, but had just 7 against the Tar Heels.

Reyne Smith, Guard

Kelsey brought Reyne Smith with him from Charleston, and the senior guard has made an impact in his new home. Smith, who hails from Tasmania, has averaged double figures scoring in each of his four collegiate seasons, and is scoring a career best 13.4 points per game with the Cards. Smith has done this despite starting just four games, and shooting less than 40% from the field. Smith is a 37.5 percent three point shooter though, taking a whopping nine per game. In three ACC games, Smith has scored 57 points.

Virginia showed signs of life in the second half of Tuesday’s win against NC State, and earned a much-needed victory in the process. Will that second-half comeback spark some momentum as the Hoos move into January? We’ll see on Saturday.

For UVa fans expecting the Cardinals to be the pushover that they have been lately, be prepared to see a competent Louisville team. Kelsey did a great job adding veteran players that have won a lot of games, and it helped created a culture shift within that program right away. The Cards are far from a finished product, but they have come a long way in a short time.

UVa is at home, and the crowd was a factor in Tuesday’s win. Perhaps that will put the Hoos over the top in this one, but we’re picking the Cardinals to take a close win here. Simply put, Louisville has the better roster, and have done more to demonstrate competitiveness than UVa has to this point.