Virginia (12-12, 5-8 ACC) at Virginia Tech (11-13, 6-7 ACC)

2pm, theCW

After a week of rest, UVa is back in action Saturday afternoon, when they travel to Blacksburg for a rematch with Virginia Tech (2pm, theCW). The Wahoos are looking for their second-three game winning streak of the season, the other coming in the first three games of the campaign. UVa is now back to .500 for the first time since January 11th, and have a chance, with a win or an efficient performance, to move back into the top-100 of the Kenpom rankings for the first time since December 22nd.

To keep their hot streak going, UVa will have to take down the only team to beat them this month. The Hokies came into Charlottesville on February 1st, and behind some hot shooting from three, hung on to beat the Hoos 75-74, as Andrew Rohde’s game-winning floater attempt fell off the rim. That win puts Tech a game above Virginia in the ACC standings at 6-7, so Saturday’s game takes on even more importance for both programs, who are still looking to lock up a spot in the ACC Tournament, and fight for better seeding.

The Hokies are also going for their first season sweep of the Cavaliers, in two games, since 2010, Tony Bennett’s first year at UVa; Tech did win the only meeting between the two programs in the shortened 2021 season, but this would be the first home-and-away sweep in 15 years.

Heading into the weekend, Virginia Tech is #148 in Kenpom’s efficiency rankings, 46 spots behind UVa, despite having a better conference record and a head-to-head win on the road. The Hokies rank 122nd in offensive efficiency, bolstered by solid outside shooting, at 35.8 percent on the year. Tech isn’t particularly good around the rim though, making just 49.5 percent of their two-pointers. They’ve also struggled mightily with turnovers, ranking 316th nationally in turnover rate. On defense, Tech ranks 190th nationally in efficiency. Opponents are making 54 percent of their two-pointers, which is well below average for a defense, nationally. The Hokies are also below average in turnover rate (#258), block rate (#339) and steal rate (#332).

In the first meeting, Tech made 11-of-21 threes, which was a major key to victory. They also limited turnovers to just seven, and out-rebounded the Hoos by 1. The Hokies shot five more free throws than UVa did, but both teams made 14 so that was a wash. UVa was also notably without Elijah Saunders, who was still working back from his injury.

Tobi Lawal, Forward

A bouncy big, the former VCU Ram is Tech’s leading scorer at 12.9 points per game. Lawal makes an impact on the glass, too, at 6.9 rebounds per contest. Lawal has gone for double-figures in seven of his last eight games, most recently dropping 15 points and 10 boards on Notre Dame. In the first game with UVa, Lawal scored 17 points and grabbed four rebounds, and was a tough cover around the rim, making 5-of-9 two point tries.

Jaden Schutt, Guard

The former Duke Blue Devil has been hot and cold throughout this season with Tech, but has still been one of the Hokies’ top scoring options. Schutt averages 9.1 points per game on the season, and had 49 points over a recent three-games stretch before being held to seven against Notre Dame last weekend. In Charlottesville, Schutt had a team-high 18 points, and got hot from three at times, going 4-for-8 from beyond the arc.

Ben Burnham, Forward

After Lawal and Schutt, the rest of Tech’s scoring varies game to game. Ben Burnham, a 6-foot-7 wing transfer from Charleston, has been a useful option at times and can stretch a defense and knock down some threes. Burnham is averaging 7.3 points per game on the year, and has scored in double figures in his last two outings, averaging 11 per game in those contests. Burnham was relatively quiet in the first meeting, but did knock down a couple of threes and scored eight points off the bench.

This is another difficult pick to make in a long series of them for a UVa team that has become more unpredictable as the season has gone on. Virginia played arguably their best two games of the season last week, coming off of the first loss to Virginia Tech. The Hokies have played pretty good ball of late too though, winning three of their last four, and like UVa had a week off ahead of this game. How Elijah Saunders fits in with UVa’s new-look lineup will be interesting, and he wasn’t available in the first game, so that could change how UVa chooses to defend a Tech team that can play small and stretch the floor. The big question for UVa is how hot can they stay, especially from three, as that has been a major recipe for success of late.

We’ll go with the Hokies because they’re at home, a place that UVa hasn’t won since 2020. But if UVa plays on Saturday like they did against Pitt and Georgia Tech last week, they’ll have a great chance to win this one, and maybe by more than a score or two.