Notre Dame (8-10, 2-5 ACC) at Virginia (9-10, 2-6 ACC)

6:30pm, ESPN2

Virginia is back in action at home tonight, after snapping their five-game winning streak on Tuesday with a win over Boston College. Now, the Hoos go for two in a row, when they host Notre Dame this evening at JPJ (6:30pm, ESPN2).

While UVa has struggled of late but are coming off of a win last time out, the Irish have had similar struggles and similarly broke a losing streak with a win over BC last week. Notre Dame lost four straight games in ACC play, beat BC on Monday, January 13th, and then lost last weekend at Syracuse. The Irish head to Charlottesville after a week of rest, sitting 2-5 in ACC play, with home wins over Syracuse and BC, and losses to Georgia Tech, UNC, NC State, Duke and Syracuse. Notre Dame is 0-4 on the road in league play, and their only win away from South Bend came back on November 16th, at Georgetown.

The Hoos and Irish split the regular-season series last year, with each team winning on their home floor. The Irish went 13-20 in their first year under head coach Micah Shrewsberry, who is now 21-30 with the Irish in his second year.

Despite having similar records, the metrics favor the Irish in tonight’s matchup. Notre Dame ranks 87th in the Kenpom rankings, while UVa rams 126th. The primary reason the Irish are so far ahead is their offense, which has been quite efficient despite having a bunch of losses on their resume. Notre Dame ranks 45th nationally in offensive efficiency, and have quality shooting numbers. The Irish shoot 36.8 percent from three, which ranks 45th nationally, and make 52.6 percent of their two-point tries. Notre Dame also does a good job taking care of the basketball, ranking 77th in turnover rate, and 46th in steal rate. The Irish are good at the free throw line too, making 75.9 percent of their attempts from the stripe, which can be crucial in close games.

Defensively, Notre Dame has been relatively average. The Irish rank 159th nationally in defensive efficiency, and are below average in a number of key categories. The Irish rank 318th in turnover rate, and 345th in block rate, meaning they don’t force many takeaways or game-changing plays. The Irish only allow opponents to make 31.9 percent of their three-point tries, but they’ve been vulnerable around the rim, allowing opponents to make 52.7 percent of their two-point tries. Notre Dame’s defense doesn’t allow many second-chance opportunities though, ranking 35th in offensive rebound rate allowed.

Markus Burton, Guard

Sophomore guard Markus Burton was one of the league’s surprise newcomers last year, and has developed into one of the conference’s best scorers in his second year. Unfortunately for Notre Dame, Burton missed a long stretch of games from late November into January, but Burton is back now and has been playing well. The sophomore guard is averaging 19.8 points per game, and scored 28 in last Saturday’s loss to Syracuse. Burton has scored 20+ points in four of five games since returning to the lineup, and UVa will have to find a way to keep him in check tonight to have a shot.

Tae Davis, Forward

Notre Dame gets a lot of their scoring from the backcourt, but do have a prolific scorer in the frontcourt in Tae Davis. The 6-foot-9 junior from Indianapolis started his career at Seton Hall before transferring to Notre Dame last season when Shrewsberry took over. This year, Davis is averaging 16.4 points and 5.4 rebounds per game, shooting better than 50 percent from the floor. Davis has a big game in Notre Dame’s win over BC last week, going for 26 point, making 9 of 14 shots. Davis hasn’t had much success historically against UVa though, with just four points total in two meetings with the Hoos last season.

Braeden Shrewsberry, Guard

Braeden Shrewsberry followed his father to South Bend after being signed with Penn State prior to Micah’s departure, and the younger Shrewsberry has had a major impact while playing for his dad. Shrewsberry is the team’s third-leading scorer at 14.8 points per game, and is a volume shooter, taking 12 shots per game, and 7.5 threes per game, shooting 37.1 percent from deep. Shrewsberry had to take on a larger scoring role when Burton was sidelined, but now the two of them form a dangerous backcourt that can account for as much as 50 points in a game.

This is a tricky one to call. If you look at the metrics, Notre Dame looks like the better team, and they may have more paths to victory than UVa in this game. The Irish are capable of getting hot from three, and have several prolific scorers. With all that said, the Irish have been vulnerable defensively, and have struggled on the road. On Saturday night, at a sold out JPJ, the environment could help tip the scales towards a UVa team that showed signs of life in Tuesday’s win over struggling BC.

We’re taking UVa in what can only be described as a low-confidence pick.