NC State Wolfpack (2-1, 2-1 ACC)

Head Coach: Dave Doeren (72-47 overall, 49-43 at NCSU)

Series: NC State leads 35-22-1

Last Meeting: The Wolfpack beat the Cavaliers 35-21 in Raleigh two years ago

Performance: After a dip in form in 2019, NC State has had a nice start to the season. The Ryan Findley-led Wolfpack averaged 33.8 points per game two years ago but State scored just 22.1 points per contest last year en route to a disappointing 4-8 record. Through their first three games of 2020 though, there is clear improvement. The Wolfpack are averaging 33 points per game this season and nearly 5.6 yards per play. Their best showing came in a 45-42 win over Wake Forest, but scoring 30 points on a Pitt defense that was stingy up to that point was impressive as well.

State has been balanced on offense with 121 rush attempts and 102 passes. The Pack have done a lot of the little things right, including taking care of the football. They haven’t lost a fumble this year, and since switching quarterbacks in the second half of their loss to Virginia Tech haven’t thrown an interception either. State has also been very strong in the red zone, going 12-for-12 on attempts, one of only two teams nationally to score on every trip inside the 20-yard line. More impressive, 11 of those 12 trips have resulted in touchdowns rather than field goals.

Scheme: State’s offense looks similar under new offensive coordinator Tim Beck to how it looked when UVa squared off with the Pack two years ago. Expect a lot of looks like what is shown above, with a quarterback in shotgun, a running back alongside, and a bunch of receivers split out wide. Sometimes the Wolfpack will line up in “empty” shotgun sets, or in pistol formations with the running back behind the quarterback. State uses the tight end position quite a bit as well, sometimes lined up in-line and other times in the slot.

The Wolfpack switched quarterbacks in their loss to Virginia Tech, inserting Devin Leary to replace Bailey Hockman. Leary was the expected starter heading into this season but missed some time in camp due to contact tracing and Hockman got to run the show to begin the campaign. Leary has looked far stronger than Hockman since taking over, and the Wolfpack passing offense has improved as a result. Against a stout Pitt D, he showed himself to be cool under pressure. On 20 throws of 47 total when he saw pressure, Leary was 10-of-17 for 99 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He also took just two sacks from a talented Pitt front, both on plays where Pitt didn’t blitz extra defenders.

NC State’s passing game was tough for Virginia to handle two years ago in Raleigh, with Finley going for 257 yards and three scores in the win. He and his top receivers may be gone but the passing game looks familiar, with an accurate quarterback and big, physical targets on the edge. Leary is content to throw plenty of jump balls to his big wideouts, who are usually a handful for defensive backs.

On the play below, Leary hits 6-foot-4 sophomore Devin Carter (10 receptions, 181 yards, and 1 TD) down the sideline on a play where the receiver had no separation and simply out-physicaled the defensive back to grab the football.

Leary can also take advantage of those physical receivers by throwing back-shoulder balls. NC State likes to get one-on-one matchups with its receivers and the play below was designed that way. This was a perfectly-thrown back-shoulder throw to Emeka Emezie, for what was ultimately the game-winning score.

If this throw is executed well, it is nearly impossible to stop.

When the Wolfpack aren’t throwing the ball down the sideline to their receivers, they use the tight end across the middle of the field.

On the play below Cary Angeline is running a deep post and does a great job finding the hole in coverage. Leary finds it too, and delivers a nice ball for the walk-in touchdown.

The running game is solid as well, as the Pack have a pair of backs who are more than capable. Sophomore Zonovan “Bam” Knight leads the team in rushing yards with 220 on 32 attempts and Ricky Person is right behind him with 202 yards on 41 carries.

State will run a lot of draw plays out of its shotgun and pistol formations, as shown below with Knight against Virginia Tech.

QB Devin Leary

Since taking the field in the second half of State’s loss in Blacksburg, Leary is 40-of-60 passing for 501 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions. That was a steep improvement over Hockman (one TD & three INT in two starts) and raises the ceiling for NC State’s offense. Virginia will need to throw some adversity Leary’s way after a hot start to 2020.

TE Cary Angeline

We profiled a throw to Angeline earlier and expect many more tomorrow. UVa has had some trouble defending the middle of the field early in this season and Angeline is the type of player that can take advantage of that deficiency.

Through three contests, he has caught 10 passes for 122 yards and three scores, including a pair of TD grabs at Pittsburgh last weekend.

WR Emeka Emezie

Emezie could be a familiar name to Cavalier fans who saw him have a great day against the Wahoos two years ago. In that 35-21 win, he caught five passes for 90 yards and a score. After leading the Wolfpack in catches a year ago, he's caught 12 passes for 145 yards and a pair of touchdowns so far this season, including the game winner last week.

Performance: While the offense should provide a challenge to the Cavaliers, the Wolfpack defense may provide an opportunity. They have struggled early in the season with some personnel issues and poor play, and have had trouble defending all three teams they have faced to this point.

Through games against Wake, Virginia Tech, and Pitt, State’s is allowing 38.7 points per game, including 40+ in the first two contests. Opposing offenses have found success both on the ground and through the air. The Wolfpack are giving up nearly 4.4 yards per carry to opponents and have allowed 828 yards through the air. State has allowed nine rushing touchdowns and four passing touchdowns while only recovering one fumble and forcing zero interceptions.

NCSU is doing a decent job getting off the field on 3rd down, allowing conversions on just 37.5 percent of attempts. Opposing offenses have been successful in the red zone against the Wolfpack, however, converting 14 of 16 trips into points.

While they have done a decent job forcing negative plays, with 27 tackles for loss and nine sacks in their first three games, the Wolfpack have been plagued by allowing big plays. State is near the very bottom nationally in that category, with 20 plays of 20 yards or more through three games ranking the Pack 65th out of 74 teams who have played this fall. NC State is also near the bottom nationally in 30+ yard plays allowed (10), 40+ yard plays allowed (five), and 50+ yard plays allowed (three).

Scheme: State runs a base 3-3-5 defense, which has been a staple since Doeren took over the program nearly a decade ago. The look isn’t terribly aggressive, though, and blitzes are somewhat infrequent. After blitzing 22 times against Wake Forest, State brought pressure just a handful of times against Virginia Tech (seven total) and on just 17 of 47 passing downs against Pittsburgh. It will be interesting to see how Doeren matches this scheme with Virginia’s, which is heavily focused on runs and short throws.

As we said, State has struggled mightily with allowing big plays, and for this preview we’ll go over a few of them and see what went wrong.

The first is a run play for Tech that goes for a big gain. The offensive line dominates State’s front, opening up a massive hole for running back Khalil Herbert. State’s middle linebacker crashed down through the middle of the defense but gets to the spot too late, and is easily sealed. If he is a little more patient on his rush, perhaps he can clog up the gaping hole before the running back is off to the races.

This is the type of play that UVa could use to great success, with the ability for the quarterback to keep the ball once a defense over-corrects to stop the run.

The next three plays are mistakes in the secondary. The first was the very first play of the game at Pittsburgh, with the Panthers hitting an easy touchdown pass to a wide open man. This was a simple error, with two receivers to the right side and only one defender covering. The safety has crept down into the box and Kenny Pickett knows pre-snap that there is no way he will be able to get back to cover the open man.

When the cornerback crashes down on the outside receiver to take that throw away, the slot receiver is running free. Notice the outside receiver when he stops his route, gesturing to his quarterback that his fellow receiver is going to be wide open, before the easy throw and catch.

The next play isn’t a miscommunication but rather poor coverage from the defensive back. Pitt’s receiver runs a classic double move right at the DB (No. 12) and easily fools him. The result is an easy throw over the top for Pickett and another chunk play for the Panthers offense. UVa runs a lot of route concepts that are designed to confuse defensive backs and force them to pick their poison, defending one route or player over another. State’s defensive backs will need to be sharper on plays like this one tomorrow.

Finally, this play is an example of a communication breakdown, caused in part by pre-snap motion. Pitt sends a receiver from left to right and State’s defensive backs come over to adjust. Notice the pre-snap communication issues from the two DBs, with one telling the other to cover the man in motion. He doesn’t, and both of them take the inside receiver, leaving the outside receiver wide open for a big gain.

Virginia runs a lot of pre-snap motion and communication issues on defense often occur because of it. Expect Virginia to test State’s secondary with plays like this early and often in Saturday’s game.