Villanova (2-2, Big East) vs. Virginia (2-0, ACC)

5pm, TNT

After a 2-0 start, UVa is set to open up the truly competitive portion of their schedule on Friday night. Following relatively comfortable victories over Campbell and Coppin State, the Wahoos leave the friendly confines of JPJ for tomorrow’s clash with Villanova in Baltimore, part of the Hall of Fame Series (5pm, TNT).

While UVa has handled their business, as expected, through the first week of the season, the same cannot be said for the Wildcats. Villanova beat Lafayette by 12 in their opener, before being stunned by Columbia at home, losing by 10 points. The Wildcats bounced back with a blowout win over NJIT, but then lost a Big 5 game to St. Joseph’s. Both of ‘Nova’s losses came against programs outside the top 100, but within the top-200 in Kenpom, so it’s possible that the schedule is a bit harder than it appears at first glance, but this is still not the start the program was looking for.

Like Virginia, Villanova’s best years appear to be in the rear view, at least for now. And like UVa, the Wildcats are led by a disciple of their previous head coach, Jay Wright. Kyle Neptune, like Ron Sanchez, left the nest to coach at Fordham for one year, returning to Philadelphia when Wright retired. Now, in year three, Neptune is under siege. He has an overall record of 37-35, and has not played an NCAA Tournament game since taking the job. It doesn’t help, either, that he took the job right after the glory days of Villanova basketball, which culminated in a 30-win season in 2022 before Wright retired, following a trip to the Final Four.

Friday’s clash is an interesting test for both teams. Villanova, obviously, doesn’t want to lose a third game in the first two weeks of the season, especially given the fact that their schedule hasn’t been full of national title contenders. And for Virginia, if we’re being honest, it’s the first real test for a team full of new pieces, that have looked up-and-down in their first two contests, and are also under new management.

Villanova ranks #56 in Kenpom heading into the matchup, a far cry from where they started the season. The Wildcats went into their season opener ranked #20, then dropped to #31 after winning, then plummeted to #59 after the Columbia loss, before bouncing back up into the 40’s, and now back to the 50’s after losing to St. Joe’s. Villanova was picked to finish 7th in the Big East preseason poll, and current rank 6th among Big East team in Kenpom’s rankings.

Despite their recent struggles, Villanova ranks 37th nationally in offensive efficiency. Against some smaller opponents, Villanova has dominated the offensive glass, ranking 25th in offensive rebound rate. The Wildcats have also done a solid job with outside shooting, making 37.4 percent of their threes, the 78th-best average nationally. ‘Nova has been good at the line too, making 81.8 percent of their attempts. If there is a major struggle, it’s been turnovers, where the Wildcats rank 196th nationally in giveaways per possession.

Defensively, Villanova ranks 94th nationally in efficiency. It’s still early, but giving up 90 points to Columbia and 83 to Saint Joseph’s seems like a red flag for the Wildcats. Villanova has not done a very good job creating turnovers, ranking 258th nationally in that category; opponents have also found the bottom of the net from three quite a bit, making 35.4 percent of their attempts from beyond the arc. Just as Villanova has been great on the offensive boards, they’ve been solid on the other end of the floor, ranking 31st in offensive rebound rate allowed. That probably won’t be much of a factor against Virginia though, as the Hoos rarely try to crash the offensive glass.

Eric Dixon, Forward

An All-Big East performer, Eric Dixon is easily the best player UVa has seen thus far in 2024-25. And Dixon is already off to a fantastic start to the season, despite the fact it hasn’t led to a ton of success for his team. Dixon is averaging 26.3 points and 8.3 rebounds per contest, and has played in three of Villanova’s games, including both losses. Dixon went for 33 points against Columbia, shooting 11-for-16 from the floor and 5-for-7 from three. Dixon went for 22 against NJIT, and 24 against St. Joe’s on Tuesday. Dixon is shooting 10-for-19 from three and is also a physical presence in the post and on the glass, so he’ll be a tough matchup for the packline.

Wooga Poplar, Guard

This is a player that UVa should be very familiar with. Poplar, who played that last three seasons at Miami, is Villanova’s second-leading scorer this season, at 15.3 points per game. Poplar, a Philadelphia native wrapping up his college career back home, is averaging 7.5 rebounds per game, too, impressive for his 6-foot-5 frame. Poplar has scored in double figures in all four games, including 20 points in the opener against Lafayette. In four meetings, Poplar never reached double figures against the Hoos; he had 8 points in 31 minutes at JPJ last year.

Jhamir Brickus, Guard

A transfer from nearby La Salle, Jhamir Brickus has assumed the starting point guard role for Villanova this year. Brickus is a player UVa looked at in the portal last year, but that recruitment never really got going. Instead, Brickus has been a key piece for the Wildcats, and is coming off of a 22-point game in Tuesday’s loss to St. Joe’s. The 5-foot-11 senior is averaging 12 points and 4.5 assists per contest, and despite a quiet night scoring against Columbia, he dished out eight assists in that loss. Brickus is in his fifth season after four years with the Explorers, where he stared most of his 119 games played, and averaged just over 10 points per game for his career.

For both programs, this is a “show me” game. For Villanova, it’s important for them to turn around their season as soon as possible, and particularly for Neptune, who is certainly on the hot seat at this point given the program’s lofty expectations. And for Virginia, we haven’t seen this group against a power-conference program, and they have so much to prove with so many new faces.

This game is truly hard to predict. Villanova’s results indicate that they might not be very good; UVa’s results, though both wins, don’t exactly inspire a ton of confidence that they’re set to take a big step forward this year, but it’s early. On top of all the unknowns about UVa and the sudden doubt around Villanova, this is a neutral site game, so no advantage there.

For our pick, we’re going with the more established team, Villanova, despite their rocky start. The Wildcats have more experience, and while they have a lot of transfers like UVa does, they are more known commodities at this point, and have now had four games to play together, as opposed to UVa, who have had just two games. This is a winnable game for both teams, but we’re still in wait-and-see mode with the Hoos, who have an opportunity to show everyone what they’re capable of against a struggled but talented Villanova team.