American (6-5, 0-0 Patriot League) at Virginia (6-5, 0-1 ACC)

2pm, ACCN

UVa is back at home on Sunday afternoon, when they wrap up non-conference play against American University (2pm, ACCN). Virginia currently sits at 6-5 overall and 6-4 in non-conference play, and will be looking to avoid losing a fifth non-conference game in a season since 2011. Following Sunday’s tilt, the Wahoos will have nine days off before their ACC home opener against NC State on New Years’ Eve.

But before UVa can break for the holidays, the Hoos must take care of business against an American team with an identical 6-5 record. The Eagles are in their second year under head coach Duane Simpkins and are looking to build on a 16-16 finish in 2023-24. It was a bit of a rough start to the campaign for American, as they started 1-4, including a 52 point loss to North Carolina on November 15th. But a more manageable schedule gave way to a five-game winning streak; granted, two of those wins came against non-D1 competition, but the Eagles did knock off local rival George Washington on December 4th in their biggest win of the season. Americans’ win streak was broken on Wednesday, when they were blown out by St. Joe’s, 84-57.

American enters the weekend ranked #240 in Kenpom, and are Virginia’s fourth opponent ranked in the 200’s (Campbell, Manhattan, Bethune Cookman). American’s efficiency numbers are below average on both ends of the floor. Offensively, the Eagles are 210th nationally in efficiency, with an effective field goal rate of 50.6 percent. The Eagles have struggled mightily with turnovers, ranking 312th nationally in the category. They’ve also struggled to create second chances, ranking 273rd in offensive rebound rate. American shoots a lot of threes, with nearly 37 percent of their points coming on triples; they shoot 33.5 percent from beyond the arc, which is average.

Defensively, American ranks 270th in efficiency. Opponents are shooting quality percentages on both twos and threes, averaging 54 percent and 34.5 percent respectively. Opponents shoot very few threes against the Eagles, with just 30.3 percent of field goal attempts coming from beyond the arc. American also sends opponents to the free throw line quite a bit; the Eagles rank 329th nationally in free throw to field goal ratio.

Matt Rogers, Forward

American’s leading scorer, the 6-foot-9 Maryland native has been extremely consistent of late. Rogers has scored 10 points in each of American’s last five contests, and between 16 and 20 points in five of them. Rogers can step out and hit the occasional three, making 32.6 percent of his four attempts per contest. In the transfer portal era, Rogers is the rare example of a player that has played five years, all at one institution.

Colin Smalls, Guard

Rogers isn’t the only player back for a fifth year with American, however. Senior guard Colin Smalls has started 10 games this year after starting just five over the past two seasons. Smalls is second on the team in scoring at 12.5 points per game, and is an excellent outside shooter at 45 percent on the season. Smalls came up big in the win over GW, scoring 26 points in 41 minutes of game time.

Greg Jones, Forward

In his sophomore season, wing Greg Jones is taking on a much larger scoring role. Jones averaged 2.9 points per game last year as a freshman, but is up to 8.8 per contest this year, starting every game for the Eagles. Jones is coming to Charlottesville playing well, too. He set a new career high with 16 points in the win over George Washington, and then set a new career high against St. Joe’s, scoring 19.

UVa should be able to handle this game, and wrap up non-conference play 7-4. The Hoos clearly have plenty of work to do, but they have faced a difficult non-conference schedule, with their four losses coming to teams ranked #2, #7, #12, #34 and #48 in Kenpom. Those losses on their own are understandable, and four came away from home, two in road environments. But Virginia also has looked far from dominant against lesser competition, too. The Hoos haven’t won a game by 20+ points this season so far, their biggest win coming by 18 against Bethune Cookman, and they trailed at the half in that game. Kenpom goes back to 1997, and UVa has won a non-conference game by 20+ points in every one of those seasons, up to this one.

Perhaps Sunday’s game will be the one where the Hoos put it all together and demolish an overmatched non-conference foe at home.