Florida State (16-13, 7-11 ACC) at Virginia (14-15, 7-11 ACC)

9pm, ACCN

With the end of the regular season in sight, UVa looks to end their home slate on a positive note, as they host Florida State on Tuesday night (9pm, ACCN). UVa officially clinched an ACC Tournament place on Saturday despite losing to Clemson, and will now use the final two games of the season to fight for seeding. If the Hoos win on Tuesday, they still have a chance to avoid the first day of the ACC Tournament and begin play in the second round, but that opportunity goes out the window with a loss to the Seminoles.

Like UVa, FSU is locked into the ACC Tournament, but still have an opportunity to close the season strong and improve their seed. The Seminoles are also looking to send retiring coach Leonard Hamilton out on a high note. An ACC mainstay, Hamilton is the league’s longest-tenured coach, having been in Tallahassee since 2003. He led the Seminoles to a pair of conference titles and eight NCAA Tournament appearances, including three Sweet Sixteen trips and one Elite Eight.

Hamilton’s final FSU team enters the final week of the regular season 16-13 and 7-11 in ACC play. The Noles started the season 7-1 but have been below .500 since, and have lost their last three games, and four of their last five coming into Tuesday’s contest. Florida State’s brutal stretch run schedule explains their recent struggles, however, with their four losses since February 15th coming against Duke, Clemson, Louisville and UNC, probably the four best teams in the league.

FSU enters the final week of the season ranked #90 in Kenpom, 12 spots ahead of UVa. The Seminoles rank 123rd nationally in offensive efficiency, and are heavily reliant on getting to the basket. Florida State makes just 31.9 percent of their three pointers, and only a quarter of their points come on made triples. FSU does a good job getting to the line, ranking 28th in free throws to field goal attempt ratio. FSU makes 52.9 percent of their two-point field goals, and are below average in turnover rate and offensive rebound rate.

Defensively, FSU is a little better, ranking 72nd nationally in efficiency. The Seminoles are 77th in turnovers forced per possession, and 17th in block rate. So while Florida State is built on getting to the rim with the basketball, opponents have trouble doing so. FSU has been a bit vulnerable on the glass, however, ranking 286th in offensive rebound rate allowed. FSU also sends opponents to the line quite a bit, ranking 302nd in that category.

Jamir Watkins, Guard

Despite the fact that FSU has taken on quite a few losses lately, their leading scorer is finishing the season strong. Jamir Watkins has scored 21+ points in each of FSU’s last three games, including 21 at Duke on Saturday. For the season, Watkins is averaging 18.5 points and 5.3 rebounds per contest, and has been a prolific scorer. Watkins has 11 20+ point scoring efforts and one 30 point game early in the season against Rice. The 6-foot-7 guard who started his career at VCU scored 21 points in a loss to Virginia last season.

Malique Ewin, Forward

The anchor in FSU’s frontcourt, Malique Ewin is in his first year with the Noles after transferring from Ole Miss and playing at the JUCO level last year. Ewin is second on the team in scoring at 14 points per game, while pulling in 7.8 rebounds per contest. A potential pro, Ewin missed Saturday’s game at Duke, but Leonard Hamilton said he expects Ewin back soon. If he can’t go against UVa, it’s a big blow to FSU’s chances.

Daquan Davis, Guard

A 6-foot-1 freshman from Baltimore, Daquan Davis has made an immediate impact with the Seminoles. Davis has started 19 of FSU’s 29 games and scores 8.8 points per contest while dishing out 2.6 assists per game. Davis had his best stretch this season in January, when he followed up an 18-point game against Syracuse with a 10-assist performance against Miami a few nights later.

This is a tough one to pick. Florida State was certainly having a better season than Virginia until mid-January, when they had a four-game losing streak, got it together, and are currently losers of three straight. FSU has just two road wins this season, at Miami and at Wake Forest. And if Ewin isn’t able to go, that bolsters UVa’s chances a bit more. This game will likely be decided in the paint. UVa’s defense, who were almost impossible to score on in the paint in years’ past, have allowed 100 paint points in their last two games, and that’s where FSU does most of their damage. If UVa can find a way to cut off penetration and force FSU to hit shots to win, the Hoos will probably take this one. It’s a tough one to call between two pretty similar teams, but we’ll go with the Hoos, in large part because they’re at home.