Wake Forest (16-8, 8-5 ACC) at UVa (19-6, 10-4 ACC)

Noon, ESPN2

After having their eight-game winning streak and nation’s-longest 23-game home winning streak snapped by Pitt on Tuesday, the Wahool will look to start a new streak when they host Wake Forest at JPJ tomorrow. Virginia’s game against the Demon Deacons continues a pivotal stretch for both UVa’s ACC and NCAA Tournament hopes. After facing the Deacs for the second this year, the Cavaliers will travel to Blacksburg for a Quad-1 opportunity in a rematch against the Hokies before a home date with UNC next weekend.

But first, UVa’s attention should be squarely on the Demon Deacons. And that shouldn’t be hard for UVa to do given how the first meeting went. Virginia was thrashed by Wake Forest back in mid-January, losing 66-47 in Winston-Salem. That loss was UVa’s last before it began the aforementioned win streak. Since beating UVa, Wake is 4-4 with victory over Louisville, Syracuse and Georgia Tech, all by big margins, and losses to NC State, UNC, Pitt and Duke, all away from home.

Like UVa, this game is big for Wake’s conference aspirations as well as its NCAA Tournament hopes. Most bracketologists have the Demon Deacons on the outside looking in but just so because of their relatively strong metrics. Wake is coming off of a loss at Duke and sits at a game and a half behind the Hoos.

As is clear, this is a critical matchup for both teams. If UVa wins, the Cavaliers create a two-game gap between them and the fourth-place Deacs while also taking away Wake’s tiebreaker advantage. That loss would also drop Wake back into a pack of teams, with four of them currently sitting at 7-6. But if Wake wins, the Demon Deacons pull a half game back of the Hoos, pick up their first Quad-1 win of the season, and stay within striking distance of first place.

Wake took it to the Hoos in the first matchup back on January 13. UVa trailed 12-4 early and Wake led 27-21 at the break after the Cavaliers chipped a way a bit. Wake dominated the second half, out-scoring UVa 39-26 after the break en route to a 19-point win. Wake shot 47.6 percent from deep, making 10, and scored 1.02 points per possession. The Deacs turned it over 18 times to UVa’s seven but that didn’t matter, as UVa shot just 4-of-12 from 3 and a horrendous 12-of-45 (26.7 percent) from two.

Wake enters the weekend ranked 27th in KenPom, second best among UVa opponents to date (Wisconsin, No. 17). The Demon Deacons rank 28th nationally in offensive efficiency and are a very good shooting team; they make 37.3 percent of their 3s, 26th best nationally, and 53.5 percent of their twos. They’re also second nationally in free-throw percentage at 79.9 percent.

Defensively, Wake Forest ranks 44th nationally. The Deacs don't turn opponents over much, raking 233rd in turnover rate forced, but they do rank top-100 nationally in 3-point percentage allowed (62nd), effective field-goal percentage allowed (62nd), offensive rebound rate allowed (50th), and more. Wake also doesn’t allow many 3-point attempts to opponents, with just 32 percent of the shots coming from beyond the arc.

Hunter Sallis, Guard

Wake’s leading scorer at 18.7 points per game, Sallis is an All-ACC candidate heading into the home stretch. The former Gonzaga Bulldog scored a game-high 21 points against UVa, making five 3s and grabbing nine rebounds. Sallis is red hot coming into this weekend’s game, scoring 33 against NC State last weekend and 22 at Duke on Monday.

Boopie Miller, Guard

Wake’s second-leading scorer at 15.7 points per game, Miller went for 14 against the Hoos last month. In his first year with Wake after two years at Central Michigan, he was quiet in Cameron Indoor with just three points; he has scored higher than his season average just once in the past six games, going for 21 against Syracuse on February 3. Miller is Wake’s top distributor at 3.9 assists per game.

Andrew Carr, Forward

One of Wake’s top big men, Carr went for a double-double against the Hoos in January, scoring 12 points and grabbing 12 boards. He comes in averaging 14 points and 6.8 boards per contest, while also shooting better than 40 percent from long range. The 6-foot-10 senior has scored in double figures in each of his last nine games, including a 28-point binge against NC State on January 16.

Cameron Hildreth, Guard

UVa kept Wake’s Englishman in check in the first meeting, holding him to 7 points and 3-for-11 from the field, but there’s a good chance he plays better in the rematch. Hildreth is averaging 14 points and 4.8 boards per contest, but has been quiet over the past two games with just 16 total points between them and four made shots on 19 attempts. Still, he has the potential to have a big night any time out, as he did against FSU (25 points) and Miami (23) earlier this year.

This is a tough matchup for UVa and we’ve already seen what Wake can do to the pack-line when things are clicking. This is a big one for both teams, as UVa looks to pick itself up after a tough home loss to Pitt and Wake desperately needs a signature Quad-1 win. The Deacs should feel confident given how the first game went, but the Hoos are at home, where they’ve been quite good, this week’s loss to the Panthers aside.

UVa has also been good in these kinds of rematches under Tony Bennett after losing the first meeting. Since 2013-14, the Hoos are 11-1 in rematches where the opponent is going for the regular-season sweep; the only team to sweep the Hoos in the regular season over the past decade was Duke in 2019. Wake has a chance to buck that trend, and the Demon Deacons have the personnel to replicate Pitt’s game plan that included a barrage of 3s.

We’re going with the Hoos at home but admittedly, it’s a low-confidence pick. This Wake team seems well designed to exploit the weaknesses that showed up on Tuesday night but we also like UVa’s chances to get back on track at home and avenge the earlier loss to the Deacs.