No. 21 North Carolina Tar Heels (1-1, 0-1 ACC)

Head Coach: Mack Brown (254-128-1 overall, 85-57-1 at UNC)

Series: UNC leads 63-58-4

Last Meeting: Virginia upset then #15 UNC 44-41 in Charlottesville last year

UVa is off to a hot start to the 2021 season, rolling to comfortable wins over William & Mary and Illinois at home. This weekend, the Wahoos go on the road to play what should easily be their most challenging game to date against rival UNC (7:30 p.m., ACCN). UVa has won four straight over the Tar Heels in the South’s Oldest Rivalry and will be looking to send the preseason Coastal Division favorites to 0-2 in conference play just three weeks into the season.

Carolina, meanwhile, dropped a tough season-opener in Blacksburg, losing to the Hokies 17-10. The Heels bounced back with a blowout of Georgia State last week but that loss at Lane Stadium put them behind the 8-ball in the Coastal standings, making tomorrow night’s game as close to a must-win as you’ll find in this division.

Conversely, Saturday is an opportunity for the Cavaliers to prove themselves as a bonafide division contender and give them their second 3-0 start in the last three seasons.

Performance: Carolina’s offense has been potent in Brown’s second stint, mostly because of excellent play at quarterback. Sam Howell is now in his third season as the starting QB and is likely heading to the NFL Draft after this season. In 2020, he led Carolina to 500 points in 12 games (41.7 ppg), with 7.6 yards per play, more than 300 yards per game through the air, and 5.8 yards per carry.

The sample size is too small at this point to say for sure but against Virginia Tech, UNC didn’t have that level of explosiveness. The Tar Heels lost a lot of familiar faces from 2020, namely receivers Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome along with running backs Javonte Williams and Michael Carter, and the expectation has been that they would be replaceable with talented players down the depth chart. Based on one very good performance against an overmatched Georgia State team and a disappointing effort in Blacksburg, it remains to be seen if those players are truly going to be replaceable.

Howell wasn’t able to get the passing game going at Virginia Tech, with just 208 yards and three interceptions on 33 attempts. UNC ran the ball fine, but their lack of ability to hit big plays was a difference maker. He bounced back with a 406-yard, four-touchdown effort last week, however. Sophomore receiver Josh Downs seems like a breakout star, with 16 receptions for 196 yards and a pair of scores through two games. But after that, Carolina is still looking for a No. 2 target to emerge. Antoine Green and Emery Simmons, two upperclassmen, seem like the best bets. They have both found the end zone this season, and Green was explosive in Saturday’s win over Georgia State. UNC has also been without pass-catcher Beau Corrales, who caught 13 passes in five games last season.

While Howell often draws the headlines, the UNC running game may be a bigger issue long term. Carolina had two excellent backs last year, and while their numbers have been fine through two games, they have leaned on Howell to do a lot of the heavy lifting there. Howell is currently the team’s leading rusher with 139 yards and two touchdowns on 24 carries. He hasn’t been asked to run much before, but perhaps UNC sees that as a solution to the hole left by Williams and Carter, both now in the NFL. UNC did add Tennessee transfer Ty Chandler in the offseason, and he has 124 yards on 25 attempts this season.

QB Sam Howell: This one is obvious. UNC largely goes as its quarterback does, and despite beating him twice UVa’s defense hasn’t really held up too well against the Carolina signal caller. In 2019, a then freshman Howell torched the Hoos for 353 yards and four touchdowns in a losing effort. And last year, he threw for 443 and four more scores in Charlottesville on just 23 completions. It would be wrong to say UVa has to shut Howell down to win, as the Cavaliers didn’t do that in the last two meetings and still won, but if they can fare better than they have in the first two matchups, they will have a real chance to win.

WR Josh Downs: Downs has been a threat to create big plays in the first two games of the season and this week he’ll be the biggest downfield threat the Wahoos have seen. He has eight catches in both of Carolina’s first two games of the season and is averaging 12.3 yards per catch. Downs had a big-play score in the opener at VT, the only Carolina touchdown on the day. UVa’s secondary hasn’t been tested at all this year after a woeful 2020, and they will be thrown right into the fire this week against an NFL-caliber QB and a receiver like Downs.

Performance: Carolina has not been known for its play on defense in recent years, but the Heels have been fine on that side of the ball thus far. The loss to VT certainly wasn’t because the defense gave up too many points, though they didn’t start the game very well. They have allowed 17 to both of their opponents, and allowed 4.1 yards per play. UNC’s pass defense hasn’t allowed much, giving up just 259 yards total through two games. Georgia State recorded just 90 passing yards last weekend on 30 attempts.

On the ground, opponents have rushed for 3.4 yards per carry, with just under 150 yards per game, and the Tar Heels have allowed three rushing scores. They have been a bit below average on 3rd downs, allowing conversions on 11 of 30 attempts, which ranks 69th best nationally. Carolina is -1 for the season in turnovers, recording three interceptions and recovering one fumble.

Carolina’s defense is a base 3-4, a look that UVa will see plenty throughout the season. The D has more experience back than on offense, though they will certainly miss the consistency of former linebacker Chazz Surratt, who recorded a team-high 91 tackles last year. This year, the Heels are led in tackles by sophomore defensive back Ja’Qurious Conley, who should play a bigger role on the defense this year. Conley is one of two players with 11+ tackles this season, along with junior linebacker Eugene Asante. UNC has recorded just two sacks on the season, which could bode well for UVa’s passing game on Saturday. Defensive lineman Myles Murphy is the only UNC defender with a solo sack through two games. He is also the team’s leader in tackles for loss with a pair. Carolina has recorded two interceptions on the year, one for Conley and the other snagged by freshman linebacker Power Echols last weekend.

LB Tomon Fox: Though the UNC linebacker has just half of a sack on the season, that was enough for him to pass the great Lawrence Taylor on Carolina’s all-time sack list a few weeks ago. Fox has recorded 21.5 career stops, playing alongside his brother, Tomari. He led the team in sacks last season with seven. Virginia’s offensive line hasn’t allowed much pressure at all through two games but they should face their stiffest test yet this weekend with Fox and Co.

CB Tony Grimes: Nicknamed “Grimes Island,” the Virginia native is a mainstay in the Carolina defense. After enrolling at UNC early, he appeared in every game last season, starting four, and is now a crucial piece of Carolina’s secondary. Statistically, Grimes has been a little quiet this season with four tackles and two PBU’s. He will likely match up with Dontayvion Wicks and Ra’Shaun Henry quite a bit on Saturday night, in what should be a critical matchup for both sides.