No. 7 Virginia (16-3, 8-2 ACC) at Syracuse (13-9, 6-5)
7 p.m., ESPN
Just over 48 hours after beating Boston College at home, UVa tips-off a Big Monday road clash tonight at Syracuse. Virginia, which figures to be ranked higher later today when the newest Associated Press Top 25 is released, sits second in the ACC standings heading into a new week, 1.5 games back of 10-1 Clemson. The Cavaliers have now won six in a row and are looking to complete the second season sweep of the league season (FSU).
While UVa comes in red hot, the same cannot be said of the Orange. They have lost two in a row and three of their last four, and after a tough loss to UNC at home on Tuesday were dominated by Virginia Tech in Blacksburg on Saturday night, losing 85-70. It dropped Syracuse to 6-5 in ACC play after a 5-2 start.
UVa has had quite a bit of success against the Orange since they joined the ACC, including a home win in the first meeting this season between the programs. UVa beat Syracuse 73-66 at JPJ on January 7 in a game that wasn’t really as close as the final score indicates. Virginia led 50-27 with 14:45 to play before the Orange finished the game strong against a UVa team on cruise control.
Virginia has won four in a row against the Orange and seven of the last eight; the Wahoos haven’t lost in what is now the JMA Wireless Dome since a 66-62 setback on Feb. 4, 2017.
The Numbers
Heading into Monday’s clash Syracuse is No. 84 nationally in efficiency, ranked 62nd on the offensive end and 128th on defense. The Orange are a solid outside shooting team, making 37.1 percent of their 3s and are top-100 in turnover rate, block rate and effective field goal percentage.
On defense, Syracuse is second nationally in block rate, 67th nationally in steal rate, and doesn’t send teams to the line much, which isn’t a surprise given the fact that the Orange run 2-3 zone exclusively. But because they’re always in zone, they do give up a lot of offensive rebounds as they can’t match up one-on-one on box-outs.
In the first meeting, Syracuse shot 40 percent on two-pointers and 8-for-14 from deep in the losing effort. The Orange actually out-rebounded Virginia 37-30 and only allowed seven offensive boards, and they did create seven blocks. However, they were undone by turnovers, giving the ball away 16 times in the loss. Conversely, UVa went 12-for-26 from 3-point range and got 22 free throws, though the Hoos missed seven of them. They had just 10 turnovers and forced 11 steals with 22 assists on 23 made field goals.
The Matchups
In the first meeting, Syracuse got a lion’s share of its scoring from the team’s two starting guards, Joe Girard and Judah Mintz.
Girard scored a game-high 19 and, as always, he wasn’t afraid to take looks he gets from deep. The senior guard went 5-for-9 from distance but went just 1-for-8 on two-point tries. Mintz is more of a slasher than a spot-up shooter, and he poured in 18 points despite having just one 3-point attempt. He went 7-of-14 from the field and got three points at the line.
Charlottesville native Justin Taylor scored 7 points in 24 minutes off the bench in a solid homecoming effort for the freshman wing.
In the frontcourt, center Jesse Edwards was kept in check on the offensive end, scoring just four. He did impact the game on the glass with 10 rebounds, though he did turn the ball over four times.
Freshman Maliq Brown, a Culpeper native, had a solid effort off the bench with 10 points and 8 boards in 36 minutes of action, while freshman wing Chris Bell added 8 points in just 16 minutes of action.
The Outlook
Syracuse will come into tonight’s game hungry for a win, and both teams will be on short rest having played in the Commonwealth on Saturday. Virginia’s success against Syracuse is well documented, but the Orange are a team that is capable of playing a great game and beating the packline, given their ability to knock down outside shots.
Still, we have to go with the Hoos here. Tony Bennett usually seems to have the answers for the zone and UVa has enough lineup combinations that can take advantage of one set defense.
Assuming UVa can knock down a decent number of shots and avoid steals when passing out of the zone, the Hoos should be able to go on the road to a place where they’ve had a lot of success, and get this one.