James Madison (7-2, 0-0 Sun Belt) at No. 3 Virginia (7-0, 1-0 ACC)

8 p.m., ACC Network

After surviving a bit of a scare in their ACC opener on Saturday, the still unbeaten Wahoos step out of conference play for an in-state battle with JMU on tonight. Virginia will be looking to go a perfect 8-0 into the exam break, not resuming action again until No. 1 Houston comes to town on Saturday, December 17.

Tonight’s contest will also be a bit of a revenge spot for UVa, having dropped a 52-49 decision last season in Harrisonburg. An improving Dukes squad held UVa to just 4-of-26 from deep and outrebounded the Hoos, overcoming an early 10-2 deficit to pull the upset.

Given that result and how JMU has played in the early part of this season, it would be difficult for UVa to overlook the Dukes. JMU is 7-2 to start the 2022-23 season, getting out to a 4-0 start that included a blowout win of a decent Buffalo team. JMU also rolled over a South Dakota State team that was a No. 13 seed in last year’s NCAA Tournament, taking down the Jackrabbits 79-60 on a neutral floor. The Dukes’ first loss came in Chapel Hill, falling 80-64 to UNC, and they lost last weekend too, this time 81-79 to Valparaiso in overtime.

JMU has shown steady improvement now in the third season under head coach Mark Byington, who came to Harrisonburg from Georgia Southern. Heading into this season, expectations were higher than they typically are for the Dukes as they got started in a new conference. In its first Sun Belt season, JMU was picked fourth in a close preseason poll, one of five teams to receive a first-place vote.

The metrics certainly respect James Madison quite a bit heading into this clash with the Hoos. JMU started the season ranked 127th in KenPom, and they are now up to 78th, having played efficient basketball to this point. The Dukes are the only Sun Belt team in the top-100 of the Kenpom rankings and are the fourth top-100 opponent on UVa’s schedule to this point (Baylor, Illinois, and Michigan).

After Saturday’s win over FSU, Tony Bennett was complimentary of the Dukes, calling them “a team that can really score.” That is certainly the case to this point in the season, with Madison leading the nation in points per game with 93.3.

Granted, of its three 100+ point games, two did come against non-D1 competition, but JMU has scored 90+ points against four D1 opponents. According to KenPom, JMU is 61st nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, with a ton of “green” on their team page. The Dukes rank fourth in effective field-goal percentage and seventh nationally in 3-point shooting at 41.5 percent. They are also top 50 nationally in two-point shooting, block rate allowed, and free-throw-to-field-goal-attempt ratio. Tonight’s game will be another pace war, with JMU 15th-fastest nationally in tempo, with an average possession length of 15.4 seconds.

On defense, the Dukes are solidly above average. They rank 97th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. It makes sense given their pace of play and how many points they score but their defense feeds their offense by creating turnovers. JMU ranks 33rd nationally in turnover rate and 36th nationally in steal rate. Opponents have struggled to shoot against the Dukes too, making just 29.4 percent of their attempts. If there is a weakness on that end of the court, it’s around the rim. JMU’s opponents are making 50.4 percent of their two-point field goals, and JMU ranks just 198th nationally in preventing offensive rebounds. Against a bigger Virginia team, that could prove costly in the half court.

JMU has a balanced scoring attack, with seven players averaging at least 8.2 points per game. The Dukes have three guards leading the way, all averaging at least 12 points per contest. Senior guard Vado Morse, who was named preseason All-Sun Belt, is JMU’s top returning scorer, averaging 15.3 points per game last season. This year, he has more help but he is still averaging 12 points and 2.7 assists per contest. Morse, who began his career at Mount Saint Mary’s, is a solid 3-point shooter, making 39.2 percent of his attempts.

Now on his third school, guard Takal Molson is the Dukes’ leading scorer at 12.6 points per contest. Molson didn’t play much in Friday’s win against Eastern Kentucky as he works his way back from an illness, but before that he scored 10+ points in all but one game this season. The former Seton Hall and Canisius guard is making 47 percent of his 3s and does a nice job getting to the free-throw line with 4.3 free throw attempts per game.

Sophomore guard Terrence Edwards has improved his scoring this season, with 12.3 points per game up from 9.1 a season ago. The 6-foot-6 guard from Atlanta scored 21 in the OT loss to Valparaiso, and kicked in 17 more in Friday’s win over EKU.

In the frontcourt, JMU has a decent amount of size and scoring punch, especially for a mid-major. At 6-foot-8, senior Mezie Offurum is another player on his third school (GW and Mount Saint Mary’s) and is his team’s top scorer in the frontcourt at 11 points per game. Offurum has scored in double figures in every game since the season opener, and chips in 5.7 rebounds as well. Another 6-foot-8 forward, junior Julien Wooden, adds 9.4 points per game. Wooden can step out and hit a 3 but also makes 58.2 percent of his field-goal attempts, and has added 2.9 rebounds per game. The Dukes are deeper in the frontcourt than most mid-majors, with forwards Alonzo Sule and Justin Amadi averaging a combined 15.6 points and 8 rebounds per contest, too.

Simply put, this is not a game for the Cavaliers to take lightly and given how last year’s contest went in Harrisonburg, it seems unlikely that they will. JMU has a deep squad with a lot of different scoring options, so they don’t have just one or two players to shut down. They’ve also been an efficient team that knows who they are and can score in a variety of ways. They have not been terrible on the defensive end either, and should be able to hold their own, at least to some degree, against UVa.

This game will likely come down to shot making for both teams. If UVa can simply play an average shot-making game, the Hoos can probably control the tempo of the game and get enough stops to come out on top. But if they shoot the ball like they did for long stretches against FSU, and the Dukes keep up their hot shooting form, an upset could be in the making.

We’re still going to go with UVa in this one, especially at home. The best team JMU played this year is a UNC team that has been up and down, and the Tar Heels were able to control that game, leading by 15 just 10 minutes into the game. If Virginia can follow a similar blueprint, the Wahoos should be able to take care of business. JMU is a very solid team that could certainly play their way into the NCAA Tournament, but Virginia is a big step up in competition for the Dukes, and we trust the Cavaliers to take this one at home, though it might be a tight game.