Florida State (1-8, 0-0 ACC) at No. 3 UVa (6-0, 0-0 ACC)
2 p.m., ESPN2
Following a heart-stopping win at Michigan on Tuesday night, the Cavaliers can now turn their attention to league play. They open their ACC slate on Saturday afternoon when they host struggling Florida State at JPJ.
UVa is looking to open the season 7-0 for the first time since 2020 and win its ACC opener for the 15th year in a row.
The Wahoos welcome an FSU team to Charlottesville that is desperate for a win. It’s been a brutal start to the season for Leonard Hamilton’s bunch, which has battled through injuries in limping to a 1-8 start. Florida State started the campaign 0-4, with a nine-point loss to Stetson, a 14-point loss to UCF, a seven-point setback against Troy and a more understandable nine-point loss to rival Florida. A win over Mercer was a brief respite for FSU before four more losses to Siena, Stanford, Nebraska, and Purdue, all by an average of 10 points.
Florida State had an up-and-down 2021-22 season, finishing 17-14, going one-and-done in the ACC Tournament to end the campaign. But this season, expectations were higher, as the Seminoles were picked to finish fifth in the ACC preseason poll.
FSU and UVa have had plenty of battles over the years, and the Hoos probably haven’t forgotten their shocking buzzer-beater loss to the Noles at home last season, a loss that all but guaranteed the Cavaliers wouldn’t get an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.
The Numbers
When looking at their data through nine games, it’s pretty clear that not much has gone right for the Seminoles in their first nine games. FSU ranks No. 162 in KenPom, after starting the season No. 65. On offense, the Noles rank 152nd in efficiency, a number sure to continue falling if they can’t turn things around soon. FSU likes to play fast, ranking 57th in adjusted tempo and 21st-fastest in average possession length. The problem is that the Seminoles have struggled to make shots once they race down the court. They have made just 46.1 percent of their two-pointers and 31.7 percent of their 3s, ranking in the 200’s nationally in both categories. They don’t take many shots from, with just 31.7 percent of their field-goal attempts coming from beyond the arc. If there is a bright spot, FSU hasn’t allowed many blocks or steals to opponents, ranking top 50 nationally in both categories.
On defense, the Noles rank 173rd nationally in efficiency. And again, there aren’t a lot of categories where they are thriving. Opponents are shooting 51.3 percent on two’s and 32.5 percent on 3-pointers, the latter of which isn’t too bad. Florida State allows far too many second-chance points, ranking 346th nationally in offensive rebounds allowed per possession. Despite not rebounding the ball well, FSU does create a good number of blocks, ranking 56th nationally in block rate.
The Matchups
Florida State has four players averaging double figures scoring, all guards. Junior wing Darin Green Jr. is FSU’s leading scorer, in his first season with the Seminoles after transferring up from UCF. Green has averaged 10+ points per game in all four of his collegiate seasons, and leads the team with 12.7 points per contest. He scored 23 points in a solid effort against No. 5 Purdue, including 16 points in the first half. Green is also a solid outside shooter, making 41.8 percent of his 3s, taking about six per game. Right behind him is junior guard Caleb Mills at 12.3 points per game. A 6-foot-5 on-ball guard, Mills is in his second season with FSU after transferring in from Houston and has scored in double figures in five of the last six games. He is one of the team’s top distributors at 3.1 assists per game.
Fellow guards Matthew Cleveland and Cam’Ron Fletcher are also averaging double figures scoring. Cleveland, who was the hero of FSU’s win at JPJ last season, is tied for second the team in scoring with 12.3 points per game, and at 6-foot-7 can be a matchup problem for many opponents. He went for 20 points in FSU’s mid-week loss to the Boilermakers. Fletcher, the former Kentucky Wildcat, is averaging 11.8 points and 7.6 rebounds per game playing a much bigger role for the Seminoles this season at 29.4 minutes per game. In an FSU lineup that doesn’t have a lot of depth in the frontcourt, he plays many of his minutes at the 4. The Noles always seem to have a giant at center, and 7-foot-4 sophomore Naheem McLeod fits that role this year. He’s not much of a scorer at 3.4 points per game, but McLeod is a solid rim protector with 1.9 blocks per contest.
The Outlook
Given how these two teams have played to this point, and the location of the game, UVa should take care of business here.
Florida State surely has more talent than the record shows, and the Noles did push an unbeaten Purdue team for a while on Wednesday night. But this is a great ACC opener for the Hoos, who have a chance to continue to grow as a team while getting an important win, as the Cavaliers look to take their November form into December.