Saturday, Oct. 29

12:30 p.m., RSN

Miami Hurricanes

Head Coach: Mario Cristobal

Conference: ACC

2022 Record: 3-4 (1-2)

UVa answered the call last Thursday night with a win against Georgia Tech. The desperate Cavaliers used a strong defensive effort to pull out a 16-9 victory over the Yellow Jackets last week. Offensively, Brennan Armstrong played well, leading the Hoos both in passing and rushing, and Dontayvion Wicks showed a glimpse of his former self with a highlight-worthy touchdown catch and run. On defense, Nick Jackson’s homecoming was a spark as he recorded two sacks and recovered a fumble.

Now, the team will look to turn the upcoming homestand into a winning streak to close Tony Elliott’s inaugural season with bowl eligibility and some momentum heading into the offseason.

The first of those four games brings the Miami Hurricanes to town. Last year, the Cavaliers needed a missed field goal to escape Miami Gardens with a 30-28 win. That victory sparked a four-game winning streak that galvanized UVa’s 2021 season.

Miami is seemingly reeling, having lost three out of four games including last week’s 45 to 21 debacle against Duke. The Canes turned the ball over eight times and starting quarterback Tyler Van Dyke was knocked out of the game with a shoulder injury. The Blue Devils were able to rush for 200 yards, including three TDS by quarterback Riley Leonard.

First-year Miami head coach Mario Cristobal was hired to inject some energy and “swagger” back into a once-proud program. Like any first-year coach, there are growing pains but Cristobal seems to be fighting an uphill battle creating a culture of buy-in with his current crop of players. It doesn’t help that a potential early round draft pick in Van Dyke has not met the mark and is now injured. His status for Saturday’s game is uncertain

Van Dyke’s backup, Jake Garcia, is a very capable quarterback and Miami fans have been clamoring for him to see time before the injury. The 6-foot-3, 194 pounder took over last week against the Blue Devils and played a solid game, throwing for 198 yards, completing 13 of 21 passes. He also tossed two touchdowns, to Colbie Young and Will Mallory. With his two scores, he also threw three interceptions as well.

If Garcia does start against UVa, expect the Miami offense to operate without a hitch. The Hurricanes have the 13th ranked passing offense in the country thanks in large part to their plethora of receiving threats. With Garcia likely seeing playing time against the Hoos, expect the Canes to commit themselves to running the ball a tad more and trying to take shots against a very solid UVa secondary. However, the program is never short on playmakers. They will use Henry Parrish Jr. as their main ball carrier. Through even games, the 5-foot-10, 190 pounder has 441 yards and four touchdowns. He averages 5 yards a carry. Mallory, the fifth-year senior tight end, leads all Hurricane receivers with 25 catches this season. The 6-foot-5, 245 pounder is one of the top tight ends in the league. At wide receiver, Frank Ladson, Jr. has 24 catches this season and Brashard Smith (23 catches) are big time athletes. However, the 6-foot-5 Young is the best receiver on the ball club and has scored four touchdowns this season, including two last week.

Defensively, Miami is always known to possess an athletic, nasty group. The Canes are ranked 34th in total defense in the NCAA as of now. The unit is secnd in the ACC against the run behind only Clemson. They will be a formidable foe for an inconsistent UVa offense. Inside linebacker Corey Flagg, Jr. (5-foot-11, 230 pounds) leads the team in tackles. He has 9.5 TFLs and 2.5 sacks in this Miami 4-3 defense. Against more spread looks, expect it to morph into more of a 4-2-5.

In the middle of their defensive line, UVa will have to deal with one of the better defensive tackles in the nation in Akheem Mesidor, who earned Walter Camp Defensive Player of the Week honors for his performance against Virginia Tech. On the season, he has recorded five sacks and eight tackles for losses. Safety Kam Kinchens leads a very talented secondary with three interceptions.

Simply put, UVa will need to execute at a high level to have success against a Miami defense that is very physical and athletic.

1. UVa needs to make it count on offense this week.

Every drive must be with purpose. Armstrong and his crew need to limit turnovers and execute at a high level. Duke was able to generate a run game from the quarterback position. Armstrong will need to be an efficient passer but also use his legs like he did last week against Georgia Tech. Additionally, UVa is a better team when the Cavaliers are able to get the tight end involved. Des Kitchens was able to get the boot game rolling last week. Look for more plays off the bootleg action to keep our offense on schedule.

2. A running back needs to emerge for Virginia. UVa has taken strides in the pass game in the last few weeks and without drops, Armstrong would be officially “back.” We’ve seen early glimpses from Mike Hollins and Perris Jones, but Xavier Brown seems to be the guy with the highest ceiling. The first-year back from Lexington runs hard and is a receiving threat out of the backfield as well. He needs to separate himself from the pack and get the lion’s share of carries for this offense to achieve the balance it desires.

3. UVa must handle success.

After a stellar performance against the Yellow Jackets, the UVa defense must do what Elliott always preaches. Coming home to a spirited crowd against likely a backup quarterback should be the recipe for another solid performance. However, Miami’s offense is capable. I expect DC John Rudzinski to throw bodies at the line of scrimmage to shut down the run game and make Miami one dimensional. If UVa can rattle Garcia and get him off rhythm, he is prone to turning the ball over and giving the game to the Hoos.

Last season, UVa started its charge with a win over Miami. This year, the Cavaliers start their four-game homestand against the Hurricanes. They come into Charlottesville battered and in search of a win to right Cristobal’s ship. Miami is never short on talent. It’s still a national brand that recruits well, but the swagger that once put fear in the hearts of opponents is fading. UVa has had a decent run of success against Miami, closing out the Orange Bowl in 2007 with a 48-0 win, and winning four of the last 10 against the Canes.

In an exciting affair, UVa takes down Miami with a late touchdown to kick off the important home stretch for the Cavaliers.