In part I of our State of the Program series, we're taking a look at how the last three months have played out for UVa football, and take a deeper look at the 2024 season.

The Hoos started fast.

One of our preseason keys to success for UVa this year was for the team to win games early, as we knew the back end of the schedule would be difficult. And that proved to be true. After UVa’s first bye week, every program they played was bowl eligible, including the two teams playing for the ACC title on Saturday, Clemson and SMU, as well as another College Football Playoff lock in Notre Dame.

And UVa got out to the good start that they so desperately needed to have a chance to get to a bowl game. Virginia opened the season 2-0, with a come-from-behind win at Wake Forest in what everyone saw as a potential swing game for the Hoos going into the season. Virginia was 4-1 through five games, after a key home win over Boston College, but unfortunately the success dried up from there. UVa lost six of their last seven, and while the hot start allowed them to chase bowl eligibility into the final week of the regular season, it wasn’t enough. Looking back, losing to Maryland on September 14th proved costly, given that the Terps were not very good this year, winning just four games.

Winning away from Charlottesville

This program, like many others, has struggled over the years winning on the road. In the Mike London era, UVa went three full seasons, and nearly four calendar years without a road win. But this year, UVa picked up three road victories, including a win at a ranked opponent Pitt. That win did lose a little luster, as the then ranked Panthers finished the season 7-5 after a 7-0 start. Two of UVa’s three ACC wins came on the road, and the Cavaliers won easily at Coastal Carolina, in what looked like a tricky non-conference trap game for Virginia at the time (the Chanticleers were 3-0 then, finished 6-6).

Extra prep time

Virginia won every game this year where they had more than a week to prepare. They won the season opener against Richmond and both games coming off of their two open dates, beating Boston College and Pittsburgh. The thing that stands out about performance with extra time is how much better the defense was in those games. Perhaps it was having more time to scheme, or more time to get healthy on that side of the ball, but UVa held Richmond to 13 points, held BC to just 14 and none in the second half, creating three second-half turnovers, and held a Pitt offense averaging 30+ points to 19, and took the ball away twice in that game. In games with a regular week of prep, UVa was 2-7 this year, and 0-6 after September.

Special Teams Improvement

Virginia’s special teams weren’t great in 2024, but they were certainly better. Unfortunately, one special teams error in UVa’s one close loss may have been the biggest play in flipping that result, and thus, their chances to be bowl eligible. Virginia finished the season ranked 60th in special teams in the SP+ ranking, last year they were 70th. But special teams also allowed four touchdowns last season, and none this year, so that’s progress.

Success in Close Games

You could use this as a positive or negative for the season, but UVa lost a bunch of close games in 2023, and won most of them in 2024. They rallied to beat Wake Forest late, and then even though it was a 10-point win, UVa’s win over BC should be categorized as a close game, with Jonas Sanker’s scoop and score in the 4th quarter extending the margin of victory. UVa also won a close one at Pitt that was decided in the final two minutes of the game. Their only close loss came against Louisville, dropping a 24-20 decision at home, making the Hoos 3-1 in close games. Unfortunately, six of their seven losses were non-competitive. Maybe Maryland could be called a close game (UVa lost by 14), but the Terps dominated the second half.

Lots of blowouts

We mentioned the success in close games, but UVa was out of a lot of games, too. This was a problem in both 2022 and 2023, and continued in year three of the Elliott era. UVa trailed by double digits in every single game that they lost (and in two games that they won, too.) And down the stretch, things got really ugly. UVa lost six of their final seven games, and here was the worst score in each of them:

Louisville 17, UVa 7 (3rd Quarter)

Clemson 38, UVa 10 (3rd Quarter)

UNC 38, UVa 6 (3rd Quarter)

Notre Dame 35, UVa 0 (3rd Quarter)

SMU 26, UVa 0 (4th Quarter)

Virginia Tech 27, UVa 3 (3rd Quarter)

Virginia ended up tightening the final margin of five of the six games (SMU won by 26) but the damage was usually done by the third quarter, and UVa was out of the games. There’s potentially an underlying problem here, either in motivation or scheme, leading to some really lopsided results here. And while some of these opponents are good, not all of them were. UNC was a .500 team that came to Charlottesville having lost four in a row, playing a QB that was third on the depth chart in the preseason. Virginia Tech also trotted out a third stringer, and like UVa came into the game needing the win for bowl eligibility, and housed the Hoos.

The offense, in general.

We wrote a ton of words last week on how bad UVa’s offense has been in the latter half of this season. There’s not a ton more to add here but three years in, this staff doesn’t seem to have the blueprint to drive success here, and the offense is now full of their guys that they brought in. UVa’s three points in the first half against Tech was their highest-scoring half in the last three games, and the Hoos had just three first-half touchdowns in the final seven games, and never scored more than 10 in a first half. They were abysmal in the red zone and on third down, and created very few big plays. Something has to give here.

The defense wasn’t great, either.

The offense has caught a lot of the flack this year, and for good reason, but Virginia’s defense struggled quite a bit, too. We mentioned the blowouts, a lot of those were a collective effort, with bad offense coupled with bad, or overmatched, defense. UVa allowed 28.8 points per game this year, and allowed 30+ points in six games, including five of their last six, with the win against Pitt the only outlier. There was a stretch in the early-to-middle part of the season where the defense seemed improved, but down the stretch, they were non-competitive against better offenses.

Mismanagement of the QB position.

This problem really only came to the surface in the last few weeks of the season, but it’s a storyline that will be talked about into the offseason to come. Anthony Colandrea won the job, and did enough to keep it without any pressure, until the North Carolina game, when things started to unravel. But Elliott and his staff stayed the course, which did lead to a win at Pitt, but major issues in the next two games, leading to a change to Tony Muskett for the finale. Coaches have to make difficult decisions, and it seems that this one may have come too late to save the season, but making the change may lead to more upheaval at the most important position on the roster.

Transfer portal additions didn’t make a big enough difference.

Not every portal addition is going to be a Malik Washington. Everyone knows that. But UVa wasn’t really able to find a new Malik Washington anywhere on the roster from the portal this year. On offense, Tyler Neville was the most-productive addition, and he had moments, but didn’t end up changing UVa’s offense enough to move the needle. UVa added a bunch of receivers, and only Trell Harris really made a difference, and he only played in four games. On defense, UVa added a bunch of new pieces in the secondary who played a lot, but UVa’s pass defense was average at best this year. Those guys were needed simply to get through this season, but most of them are going to be gone in the offseason, so the defense will either have to go out and find a new crop of transfers, or hope that their younger defenders are ready to step up.

Lack of identification of future stars

Don’t get us wrong--we think there’s talent on this roster, and guys will surely step into larger roles next year and perhaps will show out. But in this season, there weren’t a ton of new faces that emerged as potential breakout stars in 2025. On defense, Anthony Britton showed flashes on the line and could potentially develop into a good player. Trey McDonald played more, and was up-and-down, with flashes of potential. And in the secondary, it was mostly one-year transfer rentals; UVa will need to hope one or two of their young safeties will step into the void left by Sanker’s departure.

On offense, there was no development at the QB position. At receiver, perhaps Trell Harris can stay healthy and be a guy next year, but no other players really took off there. Xavier Brown showed flashes at running back, and is perhaps the best example of a good player that showed potential this season, but he’s had injury issues throughout his career.

Playing at home

UVa went 2-4 at home, which is pretty pathetic. The Wahoos beat Richmond in the opener, and had that good performance in the second half against BC off of their first bye week, and lost their other four home games by an average margin of 17.8 points, three by 14 points or more. Tony Elliott is now just 6-12 in home games at UVa.

Fan Support

Perhaps this goes along with the previous section, but the fanbase is not bought in on what the football program is doing right now. UVa broke 40,000 fans in just three home games, and never broke 45,000. 2024 was the second time in three years that they’ve failed to hit 45k for any home game. Down the stretch, attendance was very poor, and the enthusiasm of the crowds was quite tepid. UVa drew just 36,305 for ACC leader SMU on Senior Day, and we doubt that number is a real reflection of how many folks turned up. And imagine what 2025 is going to look like, barring major changes? This problem isn’t necessarily on the coaching staff, but it’s a major problem for the athletic department and a sign of deteriorating support for the program.

Performance against rivals

For the second straight year, UVa had opportunities against their three biggest football rivals and this year, two of those games came at home. But of course, UVa lost all three games, to Maryland, UNC and Virginia Tech, by a combined margin of 105-44. And those three teams weren’t even that good. The Terps, Heels and Hokies combined for a regular-season record of 16-20, none of the three were over .500, and all three came into the game cold off of losses, and two of them played with their preseason third-string QB. Elliott is now 1-6 against UVa’s three major rivals since taking the job.

A season that began with relatively low expectations, but optimism for progress, ended with a thud in Blacksburg. UVa is going to miss out on the postseason for the fifth-straight year, and finish with a losing record for the third-consecutive season. A campaign that began with some hope after a 4-1 start quickly fell off a cliff, and reminded us all of how far this program still has to go.

In part two of our State of the Program series, we’ll take a look at the big picture three years into the Elliott era, and make our guesses as to where things are heading for the Hoos in the next 365 days.