The Result:. Virginia stunned the college football world on Saturday night with a major upset of No.10 North Carolina, winning 31-27 in Chapel Hill. The victory was UVa’s first over a top-10 team on the road in program history, and the first victory over a top-10 team anywhere since 2005. It was also UVa’s biggest upset ever from a point-spread perspective (23.5). The Wahoos improved to 2-5 on the year and 1-2 in ACC play, and have now won five of their last seven against their oldest rivals.

The Turning Point: The game hung in the balance until the very end, but perhaps the most clear turning point was when UVa went 74 yards on 13 plays after falling behind 24-14 and on the ropes. That drive ended with Mike Hollins’ third touchdown of the night, pulling UVa back within three. Eventually they Hoos would tie the game at 24-24 before taking the lead for good in the fourth quarter. Down 10 at UNC was a tough spot for the Cavaliers to be in, but the long drive to respond and tighten the game shifted the momentum in their favor.

The Stat That Tells the Story: UVa got its ground game going in Chapel Hill, rushing for 228 yards on 54 attempts for 4.2 yards per carry and three rushing touchdowns.

Wahoo of the Week: There are several candidates this week, but we’ll go with Hollins, who scored three TDs and finished with 66 yards on 15 carries. Hollins had the fumble going into the end zone on what would’ve been a fourth touchdown but he more than made up for it with some hard running in the red zone and in short-yardage situations.

Offense: Virginia was productive in the win, reaching 30+ points for the second time this season and the third time under this coaching staff. The Wahoos did that against a much-improved Carolina defense that was allowing just 21 points per game, after allowing 30+ per game last year. They finished the game with 436 yards, 228 on the ground and 208 through the air. And in the fourth quarter, when the game was on the line, they averaged 7 yards per play.

Virginia did well in some of the critical metrics and despite a good showing, left some points on the table, too. The Hoos were 8-for-18 on 3rd down, their second-best 3rd-down showing of the year (7-for-13 at Maryland). Those conversions helped the offense sustain drives and ultimately resulted in red zone trips. Earlier in the season, UVa was one of the nation’s best teams at converting red zone trips into touchdowns, but the issue was that the Cavaliers didn’t get inside the opponent’s 20 enough in each game. On Saturday night, they reached the red zone six times; their previous season-high was four (NC State). They scored four red-zone touchdowns; their previous season-high was three (JMU). Making it inside the UNC 20 that many times speaks to the sustained success UVa’s offense had moving the chains.

And ultimately, the Hoos should have scored more. They had a holding call on 1st and Goal from the 3, on a run that went to the UNC 1. The penalty pushed UVa back to the 13, where Tony Muskett threw an interception two plays later. If the penalty doesn’t occur, and it didn’t really have an impact on the play, UVa probably finds a way to score from the 1 on three tries. And Hollins had the aforementioned fumble in the fourth quarter that could have proven extremely costly, as he was in the process of crossing the goal line to put his team up 11 with less than five minutes to play. The offense will do well to avoid having two red zone turnovers in a game against anyone, but they were able to overcome them because they also had four red zone scores and a field goal.

The breakout game from UVa’s ground attack was pivotal in the win. Hollins and Perris Jones (67 yards on 14 carries) were efficient, and Kobe Pace was a factor as well. The running of Muskett was a game changer, though, with UVa’s QB rushing 12 times for 66 yards in the win. Those keeper plays often came on critical downs, and Muskett’s tough running was something that helped UVa sustain drives on a night where the passing game was just okay. Muskett finished 20-of-30 for 208 yards with a touchdown and an interception. After a bit of a shaky start, he settled in nicely, and had a few key pass plays to move the chains and the game-winning touchdown pass in the fourth quarter.

Malik Washington remains a star, and seems headed for a place on the All-ACC first team. He finished the game with 12 receptions for 115 yards and the game-winning score, barreling into the end zone and breaking several tackles to get there. The transfer wideout who leads the league in receiving yards has been a coup of an addition for the UVa offense, and what stands out the most is that his performance on Saturday wasn’t an outlier, but rather what we’ve come to expect.

The offensive line deserves a shoutout here, too. They allowed Muskett to be sacked twice but came off the bye and opened up holes in the running game, and did a decent job in protection throughout the game. It will be interesting to see if redshirt freshman Blake Steen continues to play, after being inserted into the lineup on the right side during Saturday’s win.

Overall, UVa had a good game plan coming off the bye, and finally ran the ball effectively. We’ll see in the weeks to come if the success on the ground is an outlier or a sign that the line and backs are turning a corner. But for this week, it was a job well done for the Hoos despite leaving some points on the table in the red zone. We’re giving them an A for getting to 30+ points and giving them a bit of a pass for the red zone mistakes.

Grade: A-

Defense: Virginia has been through a lot of adversity this season. Injuries have mounted at all three levels and on Saturday they were once again without a bunch of players that would have either started or been key rotational pieces. Their effort wasn’t perfect this week and UNC’s offense makes a lot of defenses look silly. But if you weren’t impressed with how UVa’s defense fared against a steep challenge in Kenan Stadium, I don’t know what to tell you.

UNC racked up 490 yards of offense, with 347 through the air and 143 on the ground. The Heels had a number of big plays through the air, including a pair of TDs of 25+ yards. But UVa’s defense stood tall when it counted. On 3rd down, Carolina was just 4-for-13. It was its worst conversion rate of the season for what was one of the best 3rd-down offenses in the nation coming in. UNC also went 0-for-2 on 4th down, once in UVa territory near midfield and in the red zone on their second-to-last drive, trying to potentially take the lead down by four. The second stop was one of the biggest plays of the game, and one of UVa’s best defensive plays of the season. The D did a good job in the red-zone, too. Carolina finished 2-for-3 inside the UVa 20, but scored just 10 points on those possessions with the one empty trip coming late in the game. That’s the type of bend-but-don’t-break defense that kept UVa in games last year but has been elusive this season. And against the best offense they’ll play all year, the injury-plagued defense was able to find a way to recapture the success they had in 2022.

Virginia ended the game with its lone forced turnover of the game, too. After Drake Maye had way too much time to throw on a couple of plays, Paul Akere came off the bench and forced a wobbly throw that was caught by linebacker James Jackson to seal the win. Sometimes, to win a game, the defense simply has to find a way to make a play, and in this one, they made more than one, but this was the biggest. UVa didn’t get a lot of pressure on Saturday night with just three TFLs and two sacks but they made a play when they needed one badly.

Once again, linebacker Kam Robinson led the team in tackles, this time with eight. His ascent during this season has been a bright spot, and has raised the ceiling of a banged up unit with his athleticism. Coen King and Jonas Sanker had nice games as well, combining for 15 tackles, and UVa’s other defensive backs, particularly Tayvonn Kyle and Sam Westfall, came up with a few plays throughout the game that were critical.

Like the offense, we’ll see if the defense’s effort on Saturday night can be repeated against offenses that aren’t as explosive. If they can do that, the Wahoos will be in some more games down the stretch. They allowed UNC to move the ball and they gave up a few big plays, but ultimately they turned in their best game of the season and held the Tar Heels to their first game under 30 points all season. The defense gets an A too, for holding an elite offense down enough to get the win, and for getting two critical stops to hang on late.

Grade: A

Special Teams: Was this the best special teams performance we’ve seen from UVa in years? I can’t find any glaring mistakes in Saturday’s win. As for kicking and punting, Matt Ganyard did a good job with kickoffs and UNC’s only kick return went for just 15 yards. Daniel Sparks was awesome, punting five times for an average of 50.2 yards per punt and a long of 61 yards. He also pinned UNC deep in its own territory twice, helping the Hoos to a +17 field position advantage for the day.

In the return game, Suderian Harrison returned one punt for just seven but was clean across the board otherwise. UVa’s kick return game had to deal with UNC kicking high and short, and they did a good job fielding all of them. Washington returned it three times for an average of 21 yards, and UVa started every drive that came from a UNC kickoff at their own 25 or better.

Will Bettridge was perfect in the kicking game once again, making all four PATs and hitting a critical 45-yard field goal to tie the game in the second half. He has been reliable this season and after missing a chip shot against Tenneseee in the opener he’s a perfect 8-for-8 on field goals and 19-for-19 on PATs.

Special teams didn’t make a game-changing play to win Saturday’s game, but they made a bunch of routine ones that contributed to the overall effort. Honestly, I can’t remember a game under this coaching staff where there wasn’t at least one mistake to write about in this section, so job well done to the players and coaching staff for playing a clean game across all special teams units.

Grade: A

Coaching Staff: This section hasn’t always been littered with positives over the past 17 games. But today, we have nothing but praise to offer here.

UVa came off its bye week and went on the road and played a focused game for 60 minutes. The Wahoos seemed to have a plan to run the football on offense and stuck to it when it was effective. The offensive line was about as good as we’ve seen from them under this coaching staff in any one game. Virginia executed in all three phases on critical downs, and simply made more plays than its counterparts on Saturday.

I also want to praise the coaching staff for how they handled situational football in this particular game. UVa went for it on 4th down three times, converting twice. On the two drives where they converted, they ended up scoring touchdowns, so the gambles paid off. The attempt that didn’t convert was a good, aggressive call, too, with Muskett coming up a yard short on a 4th-and-2 keeper at the UNC 41, down by a field goal. UVa’s 3rd-down and red-zone calls were effective, too. The two red zone mistakes are on the players who made them, frankly, as the Cavaliers were set up to score touchdowns on both of those series. UVa also had a pretty clean game from a penalty perspective, with six flags for 40 yards split evenly among the offense and defense.

The coaching staff has had to overcome a lot of different challenges throughout their tenure and this season, some traditional and some not. Heading into the bye week, UVa had a lot of self-scouting to do and seemingly spent their time wisely. It remains to be seen whether the success on the ground on offense or in the red zone on defense are sustainable or one-off successes, but Saturday’s effort was impressive nonetheless.

UVa’s coaches had a tall task last week and had the team ready to play. The players seemingly never lost focus, and played harder and out-executed a very good UNC team. While we have had plenty of criticism for the staff and how they’ve prepared the team and managed game situations, one area that we haven’t questioned is the team’s effort and willingness to compete despite the challenges that have faced them. There have been issues with consistency and focus, but they didn’t show up on Saturday night despite the fact that the Cavaliers fell behind by 10 points in the third quarter and could have easily folded.

Credit to the coaching staff for having the guys ready to play at the start of the game, and finishing at the end of the game.

After UVa’s loss at Maryland, and heading into their game against NC State, I wrote this:

“Coaches can’t go out on the field and execute plays. And it’s hard to know if UVa’s coaching staff is doing a good job preparing the team to play and they simply haven’t been able to translate that to gamedays, or not. But the longer this goes on without a switch flipping, the more it falls on the coaching staff to either coach guys up, replace them with players that can get the job done, or figure out a new way to move the ball, get stops, and take the ball away from opponents.

On Friday night in Charlottesville, UVa’s staff will once again have an attempt to show things are heading in a positive direction, once again as underdogs, against a talented opponent. Maybe they’ll capitalize on it and start to turn around a season already slipping away, or maybe they’ll continue to make too many key errors and fall short. But for every opportunity missed, the belief in the long term plan for this program continues to erode.”

The Hoos had to show proof-of-concept that they can break through under this staff, and that the improvement that seems to be there but not leading to wins, was real. On Saturday night in Chapel Hill, Tony Elliott and the program finally had a close one go their way, against a very good team, and for this week at least, showed what’s possible.

This win doesn’t mean that all of UVa’s issues over the previous 16 games under this staff just go away or are solved never to repeat themselves. As we said earlier in the season when losses mounted up, we have to judge the final product and the entire season. But every turnaround has to start somewhere, and have a signature win.

Perhaps this victory will be an outlier that seems as out of place as it seems now, or perhaps it will be the start of something. We’ll just have to wait and see. But for this game, for this week, the coaching staff showed what’s possible and probably helped convince many around the program that they can get things going with time.

Job well done.

Grade: A