Take Two: Ramifications of Saturday's UVa loss to Tech
Instead of the typical Take Two, this week I’m going to share my big-picture thoughts on what Saturday’s loss means, and where the UVa program is right now at the end of Bronco Mendenhall’s sixth year.
On our podcast this week, I said that I felt that how the 2021 season would be viewed by fans would be based on the outcome of Saturday’s game against the Hokies. After seeing the result and ensuing fan backlash on social media, I’m going to stand by that take.
UVa came in 6-5. Of those five losses, two came to the ACC Championship Game contestants (Wake and Pitt), two more came at the hands of ranked teams in BYU and Notre Dame (the latter without Brennan Armstrong) and the fifth loss was a disappointing setback at rival UNC, but it was on the road against a team that was preseason top-10 in the AP Poll, and was ranked when the Cavaliers headed to Chapel Hill.
Virginia was a touchdown favorite against the Hokies and was expected to take care of business. With a win it would have been easy to say that the Cavaliers went 7-5 against a tough schedule, won their most-important game, and finished with a 5-3 record in ACC play. With a loss, it becomes easier to question what UVa accomplished this season.
Their six wins came over an FCS team, two 3-9 ACC rivals, a rebuilding Illinois team that went 5-7, and two decent road conference wins that came on missed field goals on the final play of each game. The Miami game in particular was a break for the Hoos as the field goal attempt was well within range. I’m not going to take those wins away from them, but the 6-6 record they’ve settled into now feels appropriate given their struggles on defense and the schedule that they played.
Now, back to Saturday’s game. Virginia got off to a good start, getting a stop on defense before scoring a touchdown on their first drive. The Hoos led throughout the first half and clearly seemed to be the better of the two teams. But the Hokies stuck around, mostly by running all over a UVa defense that has been woeful throughout most of the season. Tech ran the ball 47 times for 320 yards in the win. That was the third time this year that Virginia’s defense has allowed 300-plus rushing yards this season (UNC, BYU).
Bronco has long stressed attention to detail and assignment-sound football, but his team does not personify those ideals consistently enough. For the second straight week, the Hoos chances were killed off by errors.
Last week, UVa gave up a kick return TD, jumped offsides on a critical field goal attempt, among other issues. On Saturday, the game flipped on the roughing the kicker penalty late in the first half, when the Cavaliers had a chance to take a double-digit lead into halftime before they would receive the ball to start the second half. Instead, Tech used the penalty to drive the field and make it a 21-17 game just before halftime. Virginia also had a chance to extend their lead out of halftime, and despite driving down the field, settled for three points, keeping Tech within a touchdown.
UVa also lost the turnover battle, which proved very costly. UVa turned the ball over twice on offense in VT territory, and the Hokies turned those takeaways into 10 points. Tech also forced a safety late in the game, so now we’re up to 12 points. UVa recovered a fumble on an unforced error by the Hokies but didn’t turn it into points. Details like these are so critical in any game, but given how UVa’s defense has performed and their relative talent on the roster compared to their opponents, the Cavaliers couldn’t afford to give Tech an advantage with turnovers or penalties.
Now, let’s discuss the infamous throwback pass that nearly broke my brain. UVa’s offense was struggling, but a couple of big passes put the Cavaliers in a position to win the game despite many mistakes. On 3rd and 8, UVa lost yards on the throwback to Bobby Haskins, all but sealing the game for Tech. Mendenhall stuck by the call after the game, saying that it works well when executed properly, and the Hokies simply made a good play.
I’ve watched the play a few times now, and even if the Hokies were totally fooled by the action, Haskins would have had to run 15 yards to reach the end zone, which might have been a challenge given the fact that he’s an offensive lineman looking to outrace faster defenders. Tech covered the play easily, as Haskins swarmed by defenders after the catch.
Virginia fans have every right to be angry at the coaching staff for calling this play. If it works, the coaching staff would be applauded, but as it stands, the Cavaliers have one of the nation’s best quarterbacks with a talented and tough-to-defend group of receivers, with just eight yards to go. Instead of simply putting their best foot forward and giving their best players two chances to get eight yards, they preferred to try and fool the defense, and outsmart their way to a victory.
Robert Anae has some creative offensive schemes and deserves credit for getting UVa’s offense to be as productive as it was this season, but this was a huge unforced error on the part of the coaching staff.
If you want to run this play, do it in a bowl game, not in your most important game that means so much to the fans. If Armstrong threw an interception or failed to score a touchdown running their typical passing plays, so be it. But too often the offensive staff has tried to get gimmicky on big downs and has failed. UVa didn’t run up all those points at BYU or rally against Louisville by running trick plays; they simply threw the ball and took chunks of yards.
Remember the Mike London timeout debacle in Blacksburg at the end of the 2012 game? Most UVa fans do and for many Cavalier faithful, how that game played out in the final minute was a turning point for how fans viewed that coaching staff and their ability to beat the Hokies and improve the program. If Mendenhall doesn’t put Saturday’s ending in the rear view with a successful 2022 season, and maybe even a win over the Hokies, Virginia fans likely won’t forgive him and his staff for this decision.
That takes us to the other discussion topic: Mendenhall’s overall performance and “approval rating” with the fanbase. There will always be fans who call for coaches’ jobs; look around the country and you will see that at any school in a given week where they lose or don’t play well. But the reaction to Saturday’s loss felt a bit different, given how it played out and how the Hokies have looked this season.
That reaction comes at the end of a long season that saw the Hoos start 2-0, drop to 2-2, go to 6-2, then lose out. The defense was bad throughout the season, in the sixth year under a defensive head coach with staff continuity. It’s all the more frustrating that while UVa’s defense couldn’t stop pretty much anybody, the offense was setting records and piling on tons of points, but it often wasn’t enough. And, in fairness, while the staff has to take the blame for the defense that has been regressing now for more than two seasons, they also should get credit for the offensive production.
Mendenhall likely has to make changes to his defensive staff to retain credibility. For a program that preaches “Earned, not Given,” this UVa staff (particularly the defensive staff) is loaded with Mendenhall’s proteges from BYU that are not exactly coveted by other Power 5 programs. Mendenhall has made it clear that he wants to work with people that he likes and trusts, and there is nothing wrong with that. But if he is to continue in a CEO role, part of his duties include finding coaches that fit the culture but are also effective. The Alabama staff isn’t full of Nick Saban’s best friends; he goes out and finds talented coaches, uses their knowledge and skills while incorporating them into his program’s culture.
If UVa can be successful with Bronco’s guys, then that’s great. There isn’t really a reason to overhaul the offensive staff, throwback pass play-call aside, because they are moving the ball and scoring points. But you can’t look at how the defense has performed with a straight face and say that everything is fine. If Bronco keeps the staff as is, it undermines everything he says that this program is about.
Recruiting is a concern as well. Bronco’s best defenses at UVa were led mostly by holdovers that were recruited by the previous staff, with a few exceptions (Charles Snowden, for example). Bryce Hall, Juan Thornhill, Jordan Mack, Eli Hanback and others committed to the London staff and thrived under Mendenhall’s schemes and staff. The further we have gotten away from London’s recruits, the worse the defense has performed. Perhaps that’s a coaching issue, but if not, then it’s clear that the evaluation and selection of defensive players hasn’t been on par with how recruiting and development has gone on the offensive side of the ball.
Virginia Tech will have a new staff in the coming days that will almost surely recruit better than Justin Fuente’s staff did. North Carolina hasn’t turned preseason hype into great on-field seasons yet, but they are still making a dent in Virginia’s in-state recruiting efforts. UVa has just three commits in their 2022 class from the Commonwealth. Only offensive lineman Brody Meadows (No. 11) is among the state’s top prospects. It feels like recruiting is trending in the wrong direction despite more on-field success to tout.
Finally, Mendenhall is now 1-5 in six games against his arch-rival. When the Hokies were consistently in the Top 25 and winning nine or 10 games a year under Frank Beamer, losses to Tech were more understandable if not still disappointing. But this coaching staff doesn’t have that excuse to fall back on.
Losses to the Hokies in the first two seasons of the respective coaching staffs in 2016 and 2017 were forgivable, given where the UVa program was when Mendenhall took over. The 2018 loss was a heartbreaker for Cavalier fans, as the Hoos entered the game as favorites and had a chance to end the Hokies’ long bowl streak. They did neither, falling short in overtime after being shutout in the first half against a struggling Tech defense. In 2019, UVa finally beat the Hokies in a pivotal matchup between two evenly-matched teams.
Last year’s loss was a disappointing effort, with Tech up big at the half despite another mediocre season. This year, more of the same, but at home. Mendenhall has now been blown out by Tech in two games, lost as a favorite in two others, and lost by 42 in another. This isn’t just another game, and the fan reaction to yesterday’s loss underscores that point. If Mendenhall can’t start winning his fair share of games against Tech, the fans won’t forgive him, regardless of other accomplishments. You can’t will your way to victories, but if you believe that teams play as they are prepared to play, then this staff was out-prepared by a staff led by an interim coach, losing on their home field.
Any Cavalier fans expecting a head coaching change are going to be disappointed. And frankly, it would be an impulsive decision given the state of the program and Mendenhall’s overall performance. Mendenhall has UVa bowl eligible for the fifth straight year, something only George Welsh was able to do at UVa previously. The Cavaliers have gone from the bottom of the Coastal to competing for division titles. While last night’s loss was disappointing, UVa was still a play or two away from winning, and a few plays away from beating Pitt too.
Those two wins would’ve sent UVa to the ACC title game. But the Hoos didn’t win, and that’s the reality.
UVa fans aren’t going to feel good about close losses to Tech under any circumstances, but losing the way they did as favorites, at home, is unacceptable for most of the fanbase. And while Mendenhall and his staff have to wear this loss, getting UVa back to the postseason consistently isn’t a meaningless accomplishment given the circumstances. The University hasn’t invested in football at the same rate as their peers, which has had a direct impact on recruiting. Virginia has low-rate facilities by Power 5 standards, and while Mendenhall will have to make some tough decisions regarding his staff and his methods, he also needs support from the University to push the program beyond its current limitations.
After the way this season has ended, it’s fair to say that the 2022 season is critical to this staff and program. Hopefully, ground will be broken soon on the new football facility, which should be a big boost to recruiting, or at least one less excuse for lack of success on the trail. UVa also has a schedule that sets them up for success, especially if Armstrong returns.
The Cavaliers play Richmond, Illinois, ODU and Coastal Carolina in non-conference play, and get some of their toughest ACC games (Miami, UNC, Pitt and Louisville) at home. The Hoos will be playing at least one new coaching staff (Tech) and likely at least one other (Duke). Their Atlantic Division crossover opponent next year is Syracuse, another winnable game. The Coastal Division should be up for grabs, with Pitt and UNC losing star quarterbacks, Duke and Tech going through transitions, Georgia Tech still a good distance from being competitive, and Miami always unpredictable, with a head coach that will either be let go soon or squarely on the hot seat next year.
It didn’t feel like Bronco was under pressure from the fans until last night’s loss, but it’s also fair to say that enthusiasm isn’t very high, either. Virginia hosted a top-10 Notre Dame team in a primetime slot a few weeks ago, and entered the game with a 6-3 record and an exciting offense. 48,584 showed up at Scott Stadium, including a healthy Notre Dame contingent. The same can be said for Saturday, when UVa entered as favorites, yet about 15,000 seats went unsold.
Some of the attendance drop-off might be COVID-related, and it’s not fair to put that squarely on this coaching staff. The athletic department is trying new things, but they haven’t seemed to be able to draw back casual fans who occasionally come to games. Scott Stadium last sold out for the 2011 game against Virginia Tech; UVa has broken 50,000 fans only three times during the Mendenhall era (wins over FSU, Duke and VT in 2019).
With no truly marquee opponents on the 2022 home schedule and after the way this season has ended, don’t expect a big turnaround next Fall. Fan apathy can be just as bad as fan anger, and last night’s loss might turn off even more fans and drive attendance down further.
Virginia’s program is in better shape than it was before Mendenhall got to Charlottesville. I think that is undeniable. But in the next year or so, the athletic department, University at large, and the football staff have to make a determination on whether UVa football can be more than it currently is, and what it takes to get there.
If consistent bowl trips and maybe an occasional shot at perhaps the weakest division in Power 5 football is as good as it can be, then Mendenhall is probably going to accomplish those goals. If the program thinks they can do better, then harder questions need to be answered about the long-term trajectory of this program, and whether the people in place are capable of getting it there.
One thing is for sure: a big part of how success is viewed at UVa is how the Wahoos fare against Virginia Tech. And through six years, Mendenhall and his program haven’t been up to the task.
