With No. 22 UVa on its exam break until Saturday’s game against Northeastern, it seems like a good time to look at the 8-1 (1-0 ACC) start and break down some big-picture takeaways for the Wahoos.
1. Steals and blocks are fueling a defensive resurgence.
The Virginia program is known for excellent defense, and while the Wahoos have continued to churn out very solid defenses over the past several seasons, they haven’t been truly elite in a while. They had the most efficient defense nationally in 2020 and since then haven’t done better than 25th nationally. But this UVa team looks like it could be the one that returns the pack-line to the top of the pile this year or at least get very close.
UVa currently ranks No. 4 nationally in defensive efficiency behind Houston, Tennessee, and Mississippi State. Virginia is first nationally in effective field-goal percentage defense, fourth in defending the two-point shot, and 13th defending 3-point attempts. While those numbers are all great, its UVa’s block and steal rate that stands out.
The Cavaliers rank No. 3 nationally in block rate and sixth in steal rate, both considerably higher than they have been in quite some time. The defense has put up quality block rate numbers in the recent past. They were ninth nationally last year and have been in the top-30 in each of the past four years, but through nine games, this is the best block rate the Hoos have had under Tony Bennett, and is 5.1 percent higher than their previous best. Ryan Dunn is 15th nationally in block rate, and tracking down opponents at the rim has become a big part of his game.
The steal rate has been solid in the past but its way up this year. The pack-line is usually not a defense that creates a lot of live-ball turnovers, at least when compared to teams that make a concerted effort to jump passing lanes to create run outs. UVa’s best steal rate prior to this season in the KenPom era is 12th in 2018, but most years under Bennett the team has been outside the top-100 nationally in the category. As for the culprits, Reece Beekman leads the team in steals created with 2.8 per game and Dunn averages 2.6. Dante Dante Harris is also averaging a steal per game.
UVa’s defense has to work around a size disadvantage against some opponents and it has cost the Hoos a lot of offensive rebounds that lead to second-chance opportunities. But they are erasing just as many possessions, and sometimes more, with steals and blocks.
2. Early 3-point shooting has boosted the offense.
On the other end of the floor, UVa has been more of a mixed bag but has still been solid in most games. Virginia ranks 82nd in offensive efficiency, a number that is weighed down a bit by its two rough showings in Fort Myers against Wisconsin and West Virginia, as well as a 62-point effort against Texas Southern and 59 points against Texas A&M. Still, the offense has been efficient in most games and has looked quite good over the last two contests.
When they’ve played well, the Cavaliers have been fueled by quality outside shooting. They rank 19th nationally in 3-point shooting percentage, at 39.3 percent. UVa made just 11 of 35 attempts in the two Fort Myers games, or 31.4 percent, which shows how clunky things can look when the shots aren’t falling.
Isaac McKneely has been the main driver of UVa’s success from beyond the arc. He’s taken 45 3-point attempts on the season already, hitting 58.1 percent, which makes him one of the best shooters in the country to this point through the first month in the season. Obviously its unrealistic to think McKneely is going to hit nearly 60 percent of his 3s the rest of the way and there will be nights when the shots aren’t falling for him, but when the sophomore guard is hot, UVa becomes that much harder to defend across the board.
Jake Groves (42.3 percent) and Andrew Rohde (35.5) have been solid threats from deep, too. The good news for UVa is that Beekman (28.8) and Dunn (21.1) are probably capable of doing much better than what they’ve shot from deep this year, and if those guys start making deep shots UVa is going to win a lot of games.
3. The Transfer Situation: Two contributing, one injured, and one struggling.
Even for a school with national title aspirations, and the ability to land talented transfers, the portal can be a bit of a crapshoot. UVa has seen a variety of outcomes with its transfers over the years, with everything from a near lottery pick playing in a year he was expected to redshirt (Trey Murphy) to a former big-time recruit that played all of one game for the Hoos before being kicked out of the program (Austin Nichols).
This year, UVa added four new players via the transfer portal, if we’re including Harris, who joined midway through last season and sat out during ACC play. And the Wahoos have had some good outcomes and some disappointing ones from their additions, at least thus far.
Rohde transferred in from Saint Thomas and has started every game for UVa. It took a bit for him to get comfortable and be more aggressive on the offensive end of the floor, but he seems to have found his way over the past several games. UVa doesn’t need Rohde to be the volume scorer he was at his previous stop but his ability to create his shot off the dribble and knock down open jumpers could make a big difference down the stretch. He has also been a bit ahead of the curve for a guy in his first year on the defensive end, which has allowed him to play quite a bit. And the good news is that Rohde still has two more years of eligibility after this one.
Groves was the latest addition to the roster via the portal and he has been a nice pick-up for the Hoos. UVa had a thin frontcourt and its hard to imagine where things would be if Groves hadn’t transferred in from Oklahoma. The former Sooner has started most of UVa’s games and is averaging 7.8 points per contest while shooting it well from deep, as mentioned. Groves isn’t a traditional big man but he can stretch a defense and has made some timely plays. Like Rohde, Groves hasn’t been asked to come into the team and be a transformational player, but rather a very solid fit who can play a role and help the team. So far, he’s done that.
Harris has been a rotational player but got banged up between UVa’s wins over West Virginia and Texas A&M, and his ankle is still on the mend. Perhaps this exam break will give him an opportunity to return to the lineup. Thus far, Harris has been valuable in spelling Beekman in the backcourt or playing alongside him. Harris is a solid on-ball defender that hasn’t brought a lot of offense but has played a lot of basketball and will certainly be counted on to play a lot in some games down the stretch, once he’s back healthy. His injury has created playing time for freshman Elijah Gertrude, who was expected to redshirt but has looked very promising in his first three games in the lineup.
And that brings us to UVa’s fourth and final transfer addition, one that hasn’t seen things click into place yet. Jordan Minor came to UVa after a very successful career at Merrimack in the NEC, where he was one of the top players in the league. But at Virginia, he has barely been able to get on the floor and seems to be in a funk when he actually does get minutes. Perhaps Minor isn’t taking to the defense but he also looks a bit lost on the offensive end, and one has to wonder what sort of role he can carve out for himself down the road. Him not hitting for the Hoos certainly hurts the team, as he was brought in to fill the void in a thin frontcourt and provide scoring on one end and rebounding and defense on the other. If he cannot earn minutes, it puts more strain on freshman big Blake Buchanan as well as Groves and guys like Dunn who are being asked to do more around the rim defensively.
4. The schedule seems relatively manageable through January.
UVa already has one ACC win under its belt, having blasted Syracuse at home earlier this month. The Hoos still have three non-conference games remaining after the exam break before 19 straight ACC games to complete the season. Two of the non-conference games should be wins: home dates with 4-6 Northeastern and 3-8 Morgan State. The game at Memphis on Dec. 19 will be UVa’s first true road game of the season and looks like its toughest test for the foreseeable future.
The Cavaliers get back into ACC play on Dec. 30 with a road trip to Notre Dame. And while league games are all very important and should be taken seriously regardless of opponent, UVa’s ACC slate in January could give the Hoos an opportunity for a fast start. The game against Memphis is their only matchup against a top-50 KenPom team, at least for now, until their game at Clemson (No. 26) on Feb. 3. UVa does have four games against top-100 teams in that span: two games against No. 68 NC State, a road trip to No. 63 Wake Forest, and a home date with No. 67 Virginia Tech. Those will be challenges to be sure, but UVa also has opportunities for wins between now and the end of January, playing both Notre Dame (No. 170) and Louisville (No. 162) twice, as well as a game at No. 126 Georgia Tech.
As mentioned before, we haven’t seen UVa play on the road yet. And how they manage their away games over the next seven weeks will likely determine how high the Wahioos can ascend in the ACC standings before the conference schedule gets more challenging in the back half, with nine of their final 10 games against top-100 KenPom teams and five against top-50 teams.
