Three Things We Know
1. The staff is warning the players not to take their next opponent lightly.
After Saturday’s home loss to Maryland, everyone in UVa’s program is looking forward to getting back on the field and hopefully back into the win column. In their way is a 3-0 Coastal Carolina program that will be playing on their home field, in what’s sure to be a good environment with a rare P4 conference opponent in town.
While Coastal might not have the name recognition of other programs on the schedule, and isn’t a power-conference opponent, the coaching staff is making sure players understand that they’re dealing with a quality football team this weekend that demands their attention and focus.
“You've got a group that's confident. They're used to winning. They've been to four straight bowl games,” Tony Elliott said of the Chanticleers on Tuesday afternoon. “In particular, our performance in the last 10 road games versus Power 4s -- non-Power 5s, hasn't been good. So it's more we're just focusing on us, but having a healthy respect and understanding of who our opponent is.”
Coastal is unbeaten heading into Saturday’s game, with comfortable wins over Jacksonville State, William & Mary, and Temple. Virginia should be their biggest challenge yet, but the Hoos will need to be up for the fight against a program scoring 41 points per game, and a defense that has held up quite well through three contests.
2. The injury news heading into the weekend is mixed.
Virginia has its first bye week coming up after the trip to Coastal and it seems to be coming at a good time as injuries have started to mount up. In Elliott’s remarks on Tuesday, there was a somewhat long list of players with various health statuses heading into Game 4.
The offensive line has taken a bit of a hit and there’s a good chance the Hoos will be without a pair of starters. Ty Furnish is likely out this weekend with a concussion and McKale Boley is still continuing to work back from his ankle injury. Elliott said Boley is getting closer to being back, but his reports have been similar over the last few weeks, too. The line will be without depth options Ethan Sipe and Charlie Patterson for a while longer, too. The good news is that center Brian Stevens, who was wearing a boot at Tuesday’s practice, should be good to go. The offense will also be without receiver Suderian Harrison, who aggravated his hamstring last week and missed the game against Maryland.
On defense, the news was more positive. Linebacker Kam Robinson exited the Wake Forest game and didn’t play against Maryland but Elliott said there’s a good chance he’ll be back this week. Dre Walker is considered probable, after picking up a lower-body injury in the Maryland game.
3. The staff is still working to make Chris Tyree a bigger part of the offense.
“I hate that that one was called back, but we held on the perimeter, and the referee did their job,” Elliott said of Tyree’s big play. “But it was good to see him -- I feel like you're starting to see more confidence. As I said, as he continues to grow with his level of comfort with the offense, I think you'll see more opportunities for him.”
Two Questions
1. Can UVa find success on the ground again?
Virginia’s offense had a strong start on the ground last weekend, with 70 yards rushing at the half, and more than 100 in the game. The offense is pass heavy but that production certainly felt like a step in the right direction, in having a run game that opponents have to respect at a minimum. The success didn’t translate after halftime and it felt like the ground game was abandoned once the Terps took control of the game.
In his weekly presser, Elliott talked about how success on early downs helped the ground game get going and the lack of explosiveness that also kept the offense from being more balanced.
This weekend could be an opportunity for UVa to get the ground game going against an opponent that is of quality but might not be as physically stout as the last two the Hoos have faced. The offense will likely continued to be skewed towards the pass, but success on the ground, particularly in short-yardage and red zone scenarios would be a massive help.
2. Can Kam Courtney carve out a role at wide receiver?
With UVa without Harrison last week, the freshman WR slid into his role and showed some flashes in his first real game action. Courtney caught two passes for 36 yards, including a big play down the sideline that moved the offense close to the red zone.
“For a freshman or first-year, he's a developed guy. He's strong, fast, really, really football smart, has savvy, and that's what we saw,” Elliott said of Courtney this week. “He proved to everybody, which we thought we knew, but the lights weren't going to be too big for him. We had seen that.”
With Harrison set to miss another game, expect Courtney to be a bigger part of the game plan at Coastal. And if he continues to show flashes there, perhaps there are more snaps available to him after the bye week.
One Prediction
The turnover margin will be a big part of Saturday’s outcome.
The game in Conway will match up two programs who have had very different stories with ball security and takeaways this season. Coastal Carolina enters its fourth game with a +4 turnover margin, taking away six and losing two. Conversely, UVa is a woeful -5 in turnovers, with seven lost and two gained. The Hoos are coming off of a -4 game against the Terps.
Virginia has moved the ball relatively well this season, but have struggled in the areas that often determine outcomes: red zone and 3rd down efficiency along with ball security. The Cavalier offense needs to improve in all areas, but a turnover margin that’s at least even would be a big boost this weekend. The defense could help out with that too, as they come off a game where they didn’t force a takeaway, and the unit still has yet to intercept a pass.