The 3-2-1: Takeaways from UVa's triumphs in Las Vegas

1. These aren’t the 2021-22 Wahoos.

Expectations for this UVa basketball team were already higher than the outcome of last season, and what we saw in Las Vegas over the weekend did nothing to squash the hopes of Cavalier fans.

UVa pulled off a pair of impressive wins against ranked teams, dispatching of No. 5 Baylor and No. 19 Illinois with strong second-half efforts in both games. When the Associated Press Top 25 is updated later today, expect the Hoos to surge into the top 10 and maybe even the top five. The metrics love UVa too, helped out by two wins in Vegas, coupled with lofty preseason expectations. Virginia ranks fourth nationally in offensive efficiency and 11th on the defensive end, per KenPom. UVa is up to fourth overall in KenPom, behind just Texas, Kentucky, and Houston at the time of our writing.

UVa will have plenty more challenges to come. The Cavaliers will go back on the road next week to play a solid Michigan team and will open ACC play against a struggling Florida State team. Later in December, the Hoos will host a JMU team that ranks 80th in KenPom and beat the Cavaliers in Harrisonburg last season. And on December 17th, the Hoos will face another massive test when No. 3 Houston comes to Charlottesville, in what looks like one of the bigger on-campus non-conference matchups of the college basketball season.

Virginia will have plenty of tests and ups and downs as the season moves along. But this weekend showed what the Cavaliers are capable of. UVa played in a fantastic early season tournament that featured four ranked teams, and the Hoos were given two chances to show what they could do against teams capable of getting to the Final Four. They then swept those games, a pair of victories that will serve them well when resumes are compared at the end of the season.

2. The Cavaliers showed that they can win in multiple ways.

Virginia is near the top nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency and needed both to win the two games this weekend. Against Baylor, UVa hung tough in a back-and-forth first half, trailing 33-30 at the break and then great offense took the Wahoos home. They averaged 1.6 points per possession against a very good Bears defense in the second half, outscoring Baylor 56-46 on the way to a 86-79 win that really wasn’t even that close. They went 9-for-14 from 3 in the win, made 27 free throws, and had 20 assists in the win, and Armaan Franklin scoring a game-high 26 points in 25 minutes.

On Sunday, the shots simply weren’t falling at the same rate and UVa’s offense still averaged a decent 1.06 points per possession. But they won the game because the Hoos made the stops necessary down the stretch. They trailed late but went on a 13-4 run to end the contest. Virginia held Illinois to 61 points on 0.92 points per possession, 34.6 percent from deep, and forced 13 turnovers. And despite a late deficit, UVa turned the Illini’s water off in the final minutes and stormed back to win the game. Reece Beekman, who took home MVP honors, also handled star Illinois guard Terrence Shannon Jr., who came in averaging 24.3 points per game, holding him to 9 points on 10 field-goal attempts.

Nearly every team that makes a deep run in March is good on both ends of the floor, and while UVa still has some work to do to be an elite team, particularly on the defensive end, it was encouraging to see the squad blow past a team with great shooting and also get critical stops in a close game, just two days apart.

3. This team has lineup flexibility that should be a big boost this season.

Virginia continued to demonstrate its depth over the course of the Continental Tire Main Event, too. Down the stretch in the Illinois win, Tony Bennett went small against a pretty formidable frontcourt. It worked, with the Cavaliers getting a bunch of stops and enough rebounds to seal the victory. But throughout the two game set, they employed a lot of different lineups and different players contributed to winning basketball through the tournament.

Against Illinois, UVa played eight players at least 10 minutes, with five playing 24 or more, including Ben Vander Plas, who played 24 minutes off the bench. Vander Plas and Jayden Gardner have continued to both platoon and play together, and both lineups seem to be effective enough. Kihei Clark, Franklin, and Beekman continue to play the most minutes, with all playing 34 against Illinois. That’s better than what we’ve seen in the past with Clark and Beekman in particular playing almost 40 minutes in games, and it also helps that the Hoos can rotate Isaac McKneely off the bench. The freshman played nine minutes against Illinois, and 11 against Baylor. Ryan Dunn had a more limited role in Vegas, but appeared in both games.

Virginia will eventually solidify a regular rotation but it’s fair to expect Bennett to regularly go nine deep when everyone is healthy. That’s a great thing for the team’s health and long-term stability, especially if the bench can continue to produce as they have.

1. How good can UVa’s defense become?

Virginia’s defense was pushed by two very good opponents in Las Vegas, but how great this UVa team could be might come down to how dominant the Hoos can be on that end of the floor. At this point, the offense seems a bit ahead of the defense, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing given the mixed results we saw on offense last year, in particular their shooting woes. The defense has been very solid at times this season, notably at the end of the Illinois game and in the first 10 or so minutes of the second half against Baylor.

But it still feels like there is another level that they can get to on defense. And history has shown us that we can expect some improvement as the season moves forward. In fairness, UVa isn’t going to play Illinois and Baylor every game, and even in ACC play the average opponent won’t be as difficult to guard as the Bears and Illini were. If UVa can remain around a top-10 defense nationally, then this team can truly compete for a national title.

2. Will Gardner’s output be what we’ve seen so far this season, or will he get closer to his 2021-22 production?

After leading UVa in scoring last season, Gardner’s second season in Charlottesville is off to a bit of a slower start. He hit double figures with a 12-point effort against Illinois, and the senior forward is averaging 7.8 points per contest. Gardner is not playing quite as much either, rotating with Vander Plas and also playing alongside him at times. Gardner’s scoring drop off hasn’t been very costly to this point. UVa is getting points in other areas, at least so far. The scoring has been better, Kadin Shedrick and Francisco Caffaro have been solid around the rim, and Vander Plas brings some offense of his own.

We’ll see in the coming weeks whether Gardner will be closer to what we saw last year, or if he will still play a big role, but not be counted on nearly as much as a scorer. A healthy offense gets points in a number of ways, including outside shooting, so having Gardner but not relying on him to do a ton of scoring is a great thing for an improved Cavalier team.

UVa will win 24+ games this season.

This is a bit of a bold prediction but why not? Based on what we’ve seen to this point, the Wahoos should be able to beat almost anyone they’re going to play, assuming that Baylor and Illinois are as good as everyone thinks. This weekend’s tournament was a big benefit to UVa from an experience standpoint, and getting quality neutral-site games in November should pay dividends down the road.

We’re including postseason wins in this prediction, but with 29 games on the slate (after Northern Iowa was canceled), UVa looks like a team that could go 22-7 or better in the regular season, and then win some games in the postseason to get over that 24 number.

Of course, if the Cavaliers are as good as they looked this weekend in every game, they’re probably going 26-3 or so and would be among the national title favorites.

There’s still a long way to go, but it seems clear that the raised expectations after an NIT season were warranted, based on this weekend’s effort.