The optimistic (and pessimistic) view of UVa's 2022 season

The Tony Elliott Era is now less than 100 days away as Virginia is set to kick off the season on September 3 against the Richmond Spiders (12:30pm, RSN). The anticipation is starting to creep up as fall camp looms.

UVa’s new staff has a lot to be excited about in Year 1, which isn’t a total rebuilding project that many coaches face. Virginia football’s culture and on-field performance improved under Bronco Mendenhall and could allow the new coaches to build on the positives left behind. But the new guys still have to put their own stamp on the program, installing their own culture and schemes while trying to get the on-field play to the next level.

With summer underway and football season on the horizon, some fans will be excited for a fresh start while others may be cautious about what that change could mean for the 2022 season, which could become a bit of a bridge year between eras.

Today, we’ll take a look at three things the optimists might point to and three things a pessimist might say about the outlook for in the first year under the new regime.

Virginia might have a new coaching staff but Elliott and Co. do inherit a team with some real talent. That starts on offense, and particularly in the passing game. UVa returns quarterback Brennan Armstrong, which was the biggest possible win for Elliott in the offseason. The southpaw set a bunch of Cavalier records last season, throwing for 4,449 yards with 40 total touchdowns in 11 games. Quarterback is the most important position in football and likely all of sports, so there’s really no substitute for Armstrong’s experience and talent for this 2022 Virginia team.

UVa brings back its quarterback but also a slew of talent at the wide receiver position. UVa loses Ra’Shaun Henry and Jelani Woods but brings back the top three receivers from last year. Returning receivers Dontayvion Wicks, Keytaon Thompson, and Billy Kemp combined for 209 receptions, 2,918 yards, and 17 touchdowns last season. On top of that, their skillsets are all a bit different, which makes the group more complete and diverse. Wicks averaged a staggering 21.1 yards per catch last season. Kemp is a strong option on short to intermediate throws, and is an asset in the red zone. Thompson, as UVa fans know by now, is a Swiss Army knife who can do a bit of everything.

UVa also adds Lavel Davis Jr., a freshman All-American in 2020, back into the fold. Davis missed last season with a knee injury but was back in time for spring ball. Rising sophomore Malachi Fields looks like a breakout candidate, too. And the Hoos still have speedy receiver Demick Starling, Wisconsin transfer Devin Chandler, and a few intriguing options at tight end.

Even while UVa goes through staff turnover, the continuity in the passing game—the crux of most successful college football offenses nowadays—should help bridge the gap and keep the offense humming if everyone remains healthy.

Yes, the Hoos bring a lot back in the passing game but will Armstrong have time to throw down the field? Will the receivers have time to get open? That remains a mystery heading into the 2022 season. Virginia’s offensive line did a really good job in pass protection last year but most all of those key blocks came from players that have since departed the program. UVa has lost a combined 4,406 snaps from last season between Olu Oluwatimi, Chris Glaser, Ryan Nelson, Ryan Swoboda, Bobby Haskins, and Joe Bissinger, who have all either moved on to pro careers or transferred.

Virginia’s offense will be reliant on the schemes needed to “protect” the offensive line’s weaknesses and to Garett Tujague, tasked with getting the most out of a particularly raw group. The Cavaliers will surely lean on some of the younger talent that has been seasoning behind the veterans mentioned above, as well as grad transfer John Paul Flores, who comes to Charlottesville from Dartmouth. The staff seemed optimistic about players like Jonathan Leech coming out of spring ball, but optimism is just that until a game is played.

If Virginia can simply have a mediocre line, that might be enough to have a successful season. But the line has to keep Armstrong from getting buried on key downs, help UVa’s backs in the new running-game schemes, and keep the Cavaliers ahead of the chains. Without a bunch of obvious, quality replacements for the linemen that left, it’s fair to be worried about what the Hoos will be able to accomplish up front.

We’ve known UVa’s 2022 opponents for some time but when the official schedule was released earlier in the year it became clear that the Hoos got a good draw, at least as things look now. UVa’s group of 12 opponents this season could give them an opportunity to take an excellent returning QB and max out in Elliott’s first season, helping the program build some momentum off the field as the new era begins.

UVa opens up with a manageable slate, playing Richmond to start then traveling to play an Illinois team still in the rebuilding phase. Then a home game with ODU is certainly winnable the following week before Virginia opens ACC play at Syracuse on a Friday night, with the Orange seemingly in a make-or-break year. Virginia’s next three games—at Duke, Louisville and at Georgia Tech—are all seemingly winnable contests. Then the Hoos get nine days off before beginning a stretch of four straight home games against Miami, UNC, Pitt, and Costal Carolina before ending the season in Blacksburg.

There’s no way to know for sure what teams will end up being but on the surface, there are several advantages there. First, the Cavaliers get most of their seemingly tougher ACC games at home. Miami, UNC, Pitt, and Louisville are all going to be challenging games but they all come at Scott Stadium. The non-conference slate is somewhere between manageable and easy, with Coastal and ODU pesky but beatable, and the Power 5 opponent is a team the Cavaliers beat soundly last season. UVa’s schedule seems relatively light early too, which could help the Cavaliers get off to a solid start before that pivotal four-game home stretch that could decide the season.

In addition to winnable games against FCS Richmond and a pair of Sun Belt teams, Virginia will face four programs with new coaches, which probably doesn’t hurt. The Wahoos will have to play well to win a lot of these games, with the margin of error in many Coastal matchups seemingly slim. But if they falter in Year 1 with a new staff, it won’t be because of a brutal schedule.

While the schedule looks manageable, the coaching change could offset that potential advantage. UVa fans saw that in 2016, when a rough 0-3 start to the season derailed a lot of the optimism about the then-new Mendenhall staff. He was quick to mention after taking the job that he hadn’t missed bowl games at BYU and didn’t plan on missing them in Charlottesville. But the reality check came in the opener, when the Hoos were humbled by UR, losing a game that wasn’t even competitive. UVa would ultimately go 2-10 in 2016, with back-to-back victories over Central Michigan and Duke the lone bright spots in a rough campaign.

That 2016 team was not this 2022 team, but the scheme and culture shift certainly contributed to the backslide for Mendenhall’s first team. Ultimately he was able to get his culture in place and had a good deal of success, but in that first season players seemed to struggle with their new expectations and often seemed to be in the wrong place at the wrong time. Will we see a repeat of that in 2022? UVa’s new staff might have more to work with but they do have a few challenges to overcome (offensive line, for one) while trying to roll out these new schemes. The coaches will also have to decide if they want to go all-in on their new offense or play to the strengths of the current group with more of a pass-heavy attack.

It’s also worth noting that all of the returning players were products of the Mendenhall staff and culture. They don’t really know anything else. Virginia also had unique staff continuity, with very few changes through the course of Mendenhall’s six years. So the current players have heard one particular set of messages over and over, and now will are getting coaching from a totally different group. Will the new staff have a seamless transition, building on the good from last year while fixing all of the big problems? That seems overly optimistic.

Regardless of whether Mendenhall stayed on as head coach or not, it was clear that change was needed on the defensive side of the ball. After a few solid seasons, the Cavalier defense wasn’t able to maintain the same standard on that side of the ball. The pass rush fell off, the secondary gave up too many big plays, and there were too many other fundamental issues like inconsistent tackling, and so on. With Mendenhall departing, the task for fixing the defense falls to former Air Force defensive coordinator John Rudzinski.

Rudzinski seems like a bright up-and-comer and a solid addition for the Cavaliers. He has spent most of his career at the Air Force Academy and in recent years has led some very successful defenses. Air Force allowed just 19.8 points per game last season, was solid against the run, and excelled in a bunch of statistical categories. UVa’s new DC will now look to take his approach to Power-5 football and at least make some improvements to a Cavalier defense that really needs to make strides.

It’s probably not totally fair to say this but it’s hard to imagine UVa’s defense getting any worse than it has been, at least in some ways. The Hoos return a few key players including linebacker Nick Jackson and Aaron Faumui, while looking to find new stars in the secondary and pass rush spots. Rudzinski doesn’t seem locked in to one particular philosophy, which could ultimately be an asset to him both this season and beyond. If he can get UVa’s defense to simply make some improvements at all three levels and avoid giving up too many big plays, that may be enough for the Cavaliers to have a great year with what they’re returning on offense.

Even if Rudzinski proves to be a really strong hire, will that success be realized in 2022? It’s hard to say really. UVa’s new D-coordinator has a big job ahead of him, though. In addition to installing schemes, Virginia is looking to determine which players should get playing time, particularly in the back end of the defense. The secondary has had plenty of struggles since Bryce Hall went down halfway through 2019 and now will turn to a new batch of players with Nick Grant, Joey Blount, and DeVante Cross moving on.

Rudzinski could have great ideas but will he have the players ready to execute them? Even if Virginia unearths some young talent in the secondary, there is quite a learning curve there and allowing big plays could remain an issue this season. Plenty of great defensive coordinators come into their first season with a lot of ideas on how to improve the defense, only to see those schemes fall apart once the defense starts playing unfamiliar opposing teams. Mendenhall experienced that a bit himself in 2016, when his defense struggled to stop an FCS opponent right out of the gate.

Virginia will face some offenses with great players, like UNC’s Josh Downs, Syracuse’s Sean Tucker, and Coastal Carolina’s Grayson McCall. The Cavaliers will be tested, and will have to unlearn some of the bad habits that seem to have set in over the last few years. Rudzinski seems like a strong hire and a good fit, but the task might be a little too big in Year 1 to see the defense really turn it around in a big way.