Weekend Wrap: UVa stands on the precipice...but to what end?

How can a team feel like it’s both on the precipice of disaster and also like it’s on the precipice of being pretty good?

I’m honestly not sure how that’s possible. I get margin for error and all that but I don’t understand how so many vastly different emotions and takeaways can come from the same situation.

But I do know with absolute certainty that your 2022 Virginia Cavaliers are that team.

And even if it’s not a long season, it’s going to be a long season.

Coming off a both frustrating and revelatory 22-20 loss at Syracuse on Friday night, the Wahoos head to Durham this weekend at 2-2 overall and already with 0-1 hole in the league. But so much more than just the overall record is at “net zero” right now.

After years of UVa being unable to routinely stop the common cold, the defense is suddenly stout. It’s actually reliable! It’s making stops in the backfield, limiting big plays over the top, and overall proving itself worthy of carrying this whole thing.

It held Robert Anae’s vaunted offense in check, turning the Orange over three times from scrimmage, racking up six sacks, and limiting All-Everything RB Sean Tucker to just 60 yards.

And at the same time, UVa’s formerly-vaunted offense has regressed so substantially that the Hoos did absolutely nothing with any of the aforementioned turnovers and were 4-for-15 on 3rd and 4th downs against Syracuse.

What’s truly incomprehensible about this team is that every bit as crazy a development it is that the offense has taken such incredible steps back, so too is the defense’s development and the way it’s taken such incredible steps forward.

The job DC John Rudzinski and his group on that side of the ball have done has been nothing short of impressive. UVa truly had been one of the worst defenses around in recent years and now the difference is stark. The Cavaliers are among the top five teams nationally in sacks and also top 11 in turnovers forced. It’s a development that even the most optimistic among us could not have imagined. They’ve taken the pieces that we knew would be good (Nick Jackson is currently tied for 16th nationally and is third in the league in tackles) and paired that with improvement galore (Lex Long is among the Top 100 nationally and top 10 in the ACC in tackles with Jonas Sanker in the top 15 while Chico Bennett is 11th nationally and second in the league in sacks with Aaron Faumui fourth in the league.)

Some might argue, though, that some part of that productivity is the product of the offense being woefully inadequate compared to where it was a season ago. UVa is currently 87th nationally in total offense, which doesn’t sound that terrible, but the Hoos are 94th in passing offense and 115th (out of 131) in scoring offense. Brennan Armstrong is ninth in the ACC in yards per game, 11th in TDs, and 13th in INTs (he’s thrown four; the tie for 14th has thrown five). UVa also “leads” the league with six lost fumbles.

Has setting the scene ever felt more….exhausting?

But here’s the thing: Just because, dear reader, the Hoos stand on this precipice doesn’t mean they’ll stay there. Anything is possible for this team; that’s true in most years but it’s especially true this time. But, man, this thing could go really sideways with just the slightest bit of change in momentum. The offense could (conceivably) be worse but if the defense isn’t doing what it’s doing, the whole things falls to pieces rather quickly.

And that points to what is so frustratingly tantalizing, because if the offense takes even just a few steps towards its former self, with the defense playing this well, this thing could turn around in a hurry.

Both things are true. And yet, if one piece of the house of cards shifts the wrong way, the entire thing could go especially bad and that could happen rather quickly.

We will find out a lot about which way the wind blows, so to speak, when the Cavaliers take the field at Wallace Wade on Saturday night against a Duke team that has improved consistently in ways UVa has only done so sporadically.

It’ll likely take the team’s best effort of the year to get close, let alone win, which in a season of hard-to-believe realities is just one more for the list: The Blue Devils might be really good and UVa might really find out under the lights.

Maybe

Or maybe not.

That’s how precipices work, I guess.