What ACC scheduling changes could mean for the Wahoos

Coaches and administrators from around the ACC have been meeting in Florida this week to discuss a number of big-picture topics. As those meetings have unfolded, some interesting news items have trickled out, including the most-interesting topic around football scheduling.The conference seems to be on the doorstep of a major overhaul to its football scheduling model that would have a dramatic and near-immediate (2023) impact on all league members.

Today, we take a look at what the ACC is planning, why it is a great option for UVa and its league rivals, and what the future of Cavalier football scheduling could look like.

As stated by Miami athletic director Dan Radakovich, among others, the plan is to scrap divisions beginning in 2023 and radically alter the scheduling format. Rather than having the Atlantic and Coastal division with a few crossover games, the league would move to a format whereby teams have three primary rivals, and the other 10 schools rotate through, playing each other every other year (or so).

According to reports and quotes from those involved, the decision seems all but final, and the last step is getting the league’s television partners on board. We’ll get into the reasons why ESPN would be intrigued by this option and it seems unlikely that they would push back against the idea.

The league hasn’t made any official comments on this potential change and how it would impact how the league’s championship game participants are chosen. The obvious solution is to create one combined league standings, like the ACC did in the 2020 season impacted by COVID-19 (when Notre Dame also “joined” the league) and the two best records go to Charlotte. Typical tiebreakers could apply as well, with head-to-head results factoring in, as well as strength of schedule, as there will certainly be discrepancies. The league could also opt to do away with a title game altogether, as the NCAA is no longer requiring them for leagues of the ACC’s size. However, conference title games seem like big-time money makers and draw good TV ratings, so I’m not sure what the benefit of having a regular-season champion would be.

Though the proposal isn’t official, it seems unlikely that it would be as “public” as it is now if it wasn’t on track to approval. And there are several key reasons why this proposal would be popular.

First, scrapping divisions fixes one of the league’s biggest problems: The fact that many league opponents see each other so infrequently. UVa’s trip to the Carrier Dome in September will be its first game at Syracuse since the Orange joined the league in 2013. NC State played in Charlottesville in front of an empty Scott Stadium in 2020 but that game only existed because of the re-arranged COVID schedules. State hasn’t played a regularly-scheduled game in Charlottesville since 2012. Getting rid of divisions creates space in the league schedules to have conference rivals who have been on opposite sides play more often.

For UVa fans that remember the smaller ACC, matchups against Clemson, Wake, and others have been too few and far between, while the Cavaliers play games against league newcomers Pitt and Louisville annually. And while schools and their fans will likely be happy to play teams they don’t see often under the current schedule, there will also be plenty that are happy to see some of their current opponents a bit less. Will Virginia fans really miss playing at Heinz Field every other year, or an annual game with Louisville that feels forced? Will NC State fans miss their annual meeting with Syracuse or Boston College, while they never play local rival Duke? Probably not.

The new schedule should help the fan experience and make the league feel smaller with more frequent matchups, but it could also help with competitiveness. Pittsburgh won the ACC title in December, but before that a Coastal Division team hadn’t won the conference crown since Virginia Tech beat Florida State in 2012. Counting the COVID season with no divisions, an Atlantic Division team won the conference 10 straight years before a down year from Clemson left the door open for Pitt to win it all. The Coastal Division has had parity but has also been a bit of a parody. The seven-team group’s lack of a clear power has made it a punchline nationally, and often sets up a title game where the Atlantic winner is a massive favorite. Eliminating divisions could create more compelling regular-season games, and a guarantee that the top two teams in the league (barring some weird tiebreakers) meet in the league title game.

Keeping three primary partners should also allow the league to maintain existing rivalries, while creating a more balanced schedule overall. Florida State vs Miami isn’t going anywhere in this format, for example. There will be some arguments about who plays who, and there may be a fringe rivalry that gets left out here and there, or an odd annual pairing or two that sneak through. But it still beats annual matchups like Pittsburgh vs Duke, in the place of Duke vs NC State or Pittsburgh vs Boston College, etc.

The biggest and most-obvious potential impact for UVa is what has been stated above. This scheduling model should help the Cavaliers retain some traditional rivalries while reuniting with old ACC foes like NC State and Clemson. Rotating the opponents through more frequently should provide fans more variety and interesting matchups, both local and far-flung. UVa fans that enjoy road trips can follow the Hoos to every single venue in the conference within a four-year span. That also means that a Cavalier player will get an opportunity to play every team in the league, both home and away, during their time in Charlottesville. The value of tickets to home games, particularly season tickets could increase, as more frequent matchups with bigger programs like Clemson and FSU as well as local foes like NC State become more frequent. And for those that have enjoyed the new “rivalries” that have come from annual division games against Miami, Georgia Tech and others, those matchups aren’t going away altogether. They just become games that happen twice every four years instead of all four years.

Is there a potential downside for the Hoos? Of course. While the Coastal wasn’t really respected nationally, or even locally, it did provide Virginia and their division rivals a clearer path to the league title game. Every team in the division played in the ACC title game from 2013 to 2019, and without divisions I can almost guarantee that combination of seven teams will play for the conference championship in a ten-year span, much less in seven straight years.

And while the three primary pairings will be key, so will the sets of five rotating opponents that UVa will play. For example, if UVa draws rotational opponents Clemson, NC State, Miami and FSU in the same year, it could create a rough slate. The opposite is true too, of course. If schools that are traditionally not football powers end up on the schedule in a given year, maybe a team like UVa takes advantage and wins more games that they could otherwise.

Lock: VT

Likely: UNC

Plausible: Wake, GT, Louisville, Duke, NC State

Less Likely: Clemson, FSU, Miami, Pitt, Syracuse, BC

If the league goes with three primary opponents, one is a stone-cold lock, another seems relatively obvious, and then it gets interesting. UVa will continue to play Virginia Tech on an annual basis; there isn’t much else to say there, nothing should change. After that, North Carolina is the next most-obvious team for the Hoos to play annually. Virginia and North Carolina have a long-standing rivalry that is one of the sport’s most-frequently played games, and it would make sense for the ACC to hold onto it. I think this would be a pretty likely scenario, but I don’t think it’s totally out of the realm of possibility to see the league do away with this annual game in favor of a different scenario.

While having UNC as a primary partner makes perfect sense for Virginia, there is another option for North Carolina that many in the Tar Heel state will likely favor. UNC, Duke, Wake Forest and NC State could all become each other’s annual opponents, which would be big locally. Would the administrators of those four schools make a play to become each other’s primary rivals? It’s certainly possible, but the fact that all four will now play at least twice in a four-year span could help make that request less necessary. Plus, not making the four Carolina schools each others’ rivals allows for more annual games with other teams, like NC State playing Clemson, for example. For now, let’s say UVa/UNC is 50 percent or better to remain an annual rivalry game.

For UVa’s third opponent, it really comes down to how the rest of the league opponents shake out, across the board. Could the league keep UVa and Louisville together as primary partners? I don’t think either team would be fighting for that, but if neither team has an obvious third opponent, it could happen. If the teams in North Carolina aren’t all paired together, annual matchups between UVa and Wake Forest or Duke could make sense. Virginia and Georgia Tech have been league rivals for some time, so a series with the Jackets wouldn’t be too out of place, but GT may have other teams ahead of UVa in their pecking order. I don’t see UVa getting paired with the likes of Pitt or Miami, but it really depends on how the league prioritizes several factors, including distance, parity and fairness in creating the pairings. If the league tries to make sure teams have “balanced” primary opponents, then UVa’s third opponent could be a seemingly unlikely choice.

For this exercise, I gave UVa the following primary opponents: Virginia Tech, North Carolina and Wake Forest.

I also randomized the 10 remaining opponents, into the following scheduling groups:

Group A: Boston College, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami

Group B: Duke, Florida State, NC State, Pittsburgh, Syracuse

I’ve made two mock schedules, with two slightly different formats. The first is what I’m calling an ‘ABBA’ format, where teams would play the group of five rotational teams in the first and fourth year of a rotation, and an ‘AABB’ format, where teams play the same eight opponents in the first and second year of the four year rotation, and a new group rotates in for the third and fourth year.

The ‘ABBA’ format allows teams to play everyone in the league in the first two years of the rotation. But it does delay the return game in the home-and-home sets. So UVa would travel to Miami in 2023, but wouldn’t host the Hurricanes until 2026. In years two and three, UVa would play the same set of eight teams, one year home, one year away. The ‘AABB’ format has quicker turnaround times on the home-and-home series with the rotational opponents, but there would be no “new” opponents for two years at a time. Both work, it’s really just whichever the league prefers.

UVa Mock Schedule: ABBA Format

2023:

Home: VT, Wake, BC, Clemson

Away: UNC, GT, Louisville, Miami

2024:

Home: UNC, Duke, FSU, NC State

Away: VT, Wake, Pittsburgh, Syracuse

2025:

Home: VT, Wake, Pittsburgh, Syracuse

Away: UNC, Duke, FSU, NC State

2026:

Home: UNC, GT, Louisville, Miami

Away: VT, Wake, BC, Clemson

UVa Mock Schedule: AABB Format

2023:

Home: VT, Wake, BC, Clemson

Away: UNC, GT, Louisville, Miami

2024:

Home: UNC, GT, Louisville, Miami

Away: VT, Wake, BC, Clemson

2025:

Home: VT, Wake, Pittsburgh, Syracuse

Away: UNC, Duke, FSU, NC State

2026:

Home: UNC, Duke, FSU, NC State

Away: VT, Wake, Pittsburgh, Syracuse