Published Feb 13, 2023
ACC Storylines: 2.13.23
Justin Ferber  •  CavsCorner
Editor In-Chief
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@justin_ferber

The Top Half is Breaking in Two

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With just three weeks of ACC basketball remaining, the title race and other subsequent races are starting to come into focus. And while for the past month or so there has been a top nine and a bottom six (give or take), that top group is splintering.

Heading into the stretch run, Pitt and Virginia are atop the league at 11-3, with the Panthers holding the tiebreaker by virtue of their head-to-head victory. Right behind them, Miami is 11-4, Clemson is 10-4, and NC State is lingering at 10-5. The Wolfpack are a dividing line of sorts in the standings at the moment, with four teams at six losses with six games to play: Wake is 9-6, while Duke, UNC, and Syracuse all sit at 8-6.

Individual teams can rise to the top group or fall out of it, but it’s difficult to imagine any of the six-loss teams getting to the top of the standings at this point, as it would require all of UVa, Pitt, Miami and Clemson to fall apart down the stretch, and for that six-loss team to win out.

UVa and Pitt are in the driver’s seat with three losses each, but every time we highlight a team in the race, they start losing, so who knows what the update will be next week.

Still, the Panthers and Hoos should feel good about being a game up in the loss column, plus they both have relatively favorable stretch runs. Four of UVa’s six remaining games come against Louisville, Notre Dame and Boston College, though two of those contests are away from home. The Cavaliers also get Clemson at home, and the Tigers appear to be fading a bit, losing their last three. Virginia’s toughest remaining game is at UNC on Feb. 25.

Meanwhile Pitt has games remaining against BC, GT and Notre Dame which should be wins, and also has a game in Blacksburg plus a home date with Syracuse before a big season finale.


Several Games Will Shape Title Race

With the stretch run further in focus, there are a few games that we can circle as potentially the most relevant to the outcome. We mentioned Pitt’s finale in the section above. The Panthers finish the season at Miami, a rematch of a Jan. 28 game won by Pitt at home. Both teams are at 11 wins, and it feels very likely that this game has something on the line, whether it be ACC Tournament seeding or the actual regular-season title.

For Virginia, the head-to-head game with Clemson on Feb. 28 is looming. Before that, the Tigers have a big matchup at NC State on Feb. 25, as both programs look to finish the season strong. State has a pretty brutal final five games, all against teams with winning records in league play. So every game for the Wolfpack will be critical the rest of the way.

All of the six-loss teams have tough stretches to end the season too, with Duke having the best path of the four and Syracuse probably having the worst remaining schedule.


The Bottom is Nearly Locked In

Sliding down the standings, we already have two teams officially locked into the opening day of the ACC Tournament. Georgia Tech (2-13) and Louisville (1-13) booked their spots in the bottom six over the weekend, and Notre Dame (2-12) is just one loss away from doing so.

Teams 10-12 still have a mathematical shot to get out of the bottom six but their time is running out. Boston College (6-9), Florida State (6-9) and Virginia Tech (5-9) have already proven themselves capable of playing with anyone in the league on the right night. BC beat 10-4 Clemson, FSU beat 11-3 Pitt on the road, and Tech beat UVa in Blacksburg.

Still, all three are three games back of the six-loss teams in the loss column with either five or six games remaining.

It’s quite possible that one of the six-loss teams finishes around .500 with all of them having tough schedules and several head-to-head matchups, but BC, FSU and VT now have no margin for error to catch up.

The Eagles have just two home games left, and one of them is against Virginia. The Hokies have some challenging games against Pitt, Miami and FSU, all at home, and a road trip to Duke. The Noles have trips to Clemson, Miami and VT remaining.

It’s tough to see any of these teams going on a run and finishing 10-10 or something like that, but we’ve already seen that each of these teams are dangerous and capable of upset bids.


Quick Questions


After tumultuous weeks, will Duke or UNC (or both) finish strong?

Last week, we wrote that Duke might be trending up after the win against UNC. Then the Blue Devils got pasted at Miami and lost a heartbreaker in Charlottesville after the now infamous and controversial call/no-call at the end of regulation. It’s hard to say that the loss to UVa is a sign that Duke is headed in the wrong direction, as the Blue Devils played well and certainly could have won. UNC had a tough loss at Wake Forest midweek, and then rallied for a blowout win over Clemson on Saturday.

Both Duke and UNC sit 8-6 in league play, and as always, play each other to end the season. Between now and then, Duke has a relatively favorable schedule, with four home games, including three against teams in the bottom six. UNC, on the other hand, has opportunities to improve its resume as the Heels sit right on the NCAA Tournament bubble at the moment. They play three of their next four games against ACC contenders Miami, NC State and UVa, two of which are at home.


Who should be the ACC POY?

It’s a crowded field and right now it’s tough to say who will be the conference’s player of the year next month. Wake’s Tyree Appleby leads the league in scoring at 18.6 points per game, but is a relatively high-usage player on a team that has trended down a bit over the past month or so. Clemson’s Hunter Tyson will be in the mix too, averaging 15.6 points and 9.6 rebounds per game, though if the Tigers keep losing, perhaps his chances fade.

Here are four other contenders worth taking a look at: UNC’s Armando Bacot, NC State’s Terquavion Smith, Miami’s Isaiah Wong and Pitt’s Blake Hinson.

Bacot is an obvious frontrunner, and if UNC finishes strong, there’s a good chance he wins the award. He is averaging 17.6 points per game, third in the conference, and is the ACC’s top rebounder at 11.3 per game. Smith is an elite scorer at 18.5 points per game, playing on a winning team. He is adding 4.6 assists per game, too. Wong, meanwhile, is another solid scorer on a good Miami team, averaging 16.2 points and 3.5 assists per game. He gets it done on defense too, averaging 1.5 steals per game. Finally, Hinson is the best player on a surprise league leader, and those players always garner attention.

As of now, UVa doesn’t really have a candidate, because it’s been such a team effort for the Wahoos this season. It seems likely that Kihei Clark, Reece Beekman and Armaan Franklin earn some sort of All-ACC recognition in March. Clark in particular has a good case for first-team All-ACC, given his assist numbers (5.9 per game, second in the league) and what he contributes on the defensive end.


Games of the Week

Monday: Miami at UNC (7 p.m., ESPN)

Big Monday features another test for the Canes and Tar Heels. UNC is coming off of a big win against Clemson and looking to keep momentum going, allowing the Heels move closer to the top group in the standings. Miami is looking to stay on target with Pitt and UVa a half-game up for first place.


Tuesday: NC State at Syracuse (7 p.m., ACCN)

This is potentially a must-win for NC State if the Wolfpack want to stay in the ACC title race. It’s a road game, but looking at what they have left, it feels like one of the more winnable games on their slate.


Saturday: Wake Fores at Miami (2 p.m., RSN)

Another big one for Miami, though at home, the Canes should be favored to handle this one. Wake is hanging around at 9-6 in league play, and though they’re not really in the NCAA Tournament conversation right now, the Deacs have opportunities to play their way in, starting on Saturday in Coral Gables.


Saturday: Pitt at Virginia Tech (5 p.m., ACCN)

This is a tricky spot for the league leaders, who should be able to take care of BC at home prior to this trip to Blacksburg. Virginia Tech’s at-large tournament hopes sunk with its home loss to the Eagles last week, but the Hokies still have a faint chance, or are at least capable of playing spoiler here. This is also a big game for UVa, which as we mentioned doesn’t have the tiebreaker over Pitt and therefore needs them to drop at least a game or two to have a chance at the top seed in the ACC Tournament.

If the Panthers don’t lose this one, Virginia would probably need to run the table to feel good about overtaking the Panthers.


Saturday: Duke at Syracuse (6 p.m., ESPN)

The second of two big home games for Syracuse this week. The Orange could either be 10-6 with a pair of impressive wins, or just as easily be 8-8 and fading towards the bottom six. This is Duke’s only road game in the next five, so the Blue Devils have a chance to get on a bit of a roll if they can win this one.


Sunday: UNC at NC State (1 p.m., ESPN)

A rare Sunday ACC game pits a pair of in-state rivals against each other in a rematch. UNC won the first meeting in Chapel Hill and now the Wolfpack have an opportunity for a big statement win at home to keep them alive in the ACC race.