Virginia (13-14, 6-10 ACC) at Wake Forest (19-8, 11-5 ACC)

9pm ESPNU

Now in the final two weeks of the regular season, UVa is looking to finish strong, lock up an ACC Tournament spot, and perhaps even end the season with a winning record. The final four game stretch starts tonight, with the Hoos at Wake Forest for their penultimate road tilt of the season.

While Virginia is seemingly running out the clock on a lost season, Wake Forest still has a lot to play for. The Deacs have remained in the NCAA Tournament conversation throughout this season, and enter tonight’s contest 19-8 and 11-5 in ACC play. However, their March Madness hopes took a big hit over the last couple weeks, with a two-point home loss to Florida State, and a 12-point setback at cellar-dweller NC State on Saturday. The good news is that Wake did pick up a good road win at SMU in between there, but the Demon Deacons have an uphill battle to make the NCAA Tournament now, with four games left. They probably need to sweep their home games against UVa, Notre Dame and Georgia Tech, and then either upset Duke on the road, or make a run in the ACC Tournament, to even have a chance to get in.

Last year, UVa and Wake split the season series, with the Deacs blowing the Hoos out at home early in league play, and UVa avenging that loss at home in February, winning 49-47 despite going 1-for-11 at the free throw line.

Wake ranks 69th in Kenpom heading into tonight’s matchup, which puts them 34 spots ahead of Virginia. Wake’s offense has fallen off considerably from last year when they ranked 25th nationally in efficiency, and this year, they’re all the way down to #132 despite having a very similar roster. Wake has really struggled to shoot the three, making just 29.1 percent from beyond the arc which ranks near the very bottom nationally. They also don’t create a lot of second-chance opportunities, as they rank 276th in offensive rebound rate. As for strengths, Wake has been solid around the rim, making 54 percent of their two-point tries. The Deacs have also been solid at the line, making 75.1 percent of their shots from the stripe.

While Wake Forest’s offense has taken a step back, their defense has been quite solid, ranking 33rd in efficiency. And while the Deacs have struggled to hit threes, so have their opponents, who have made just 30.4 percent of their attempts. Wake ranks 52nd in turnover rate, 42nd in block rate, and 58th in two-point defense. Wake does allow a good number of offensive rebounds however, ranking 280th in that category.

Hunter Sallis, Guard

The 6-foot-5 senior guard is back for his second year with Wake, after two years at Gonzaga to begin his collegiate career. Sallis has continued to be one of the top scoring guards in the conference, averaging 18.3 points and 5.2 rebounds per contest. Sallis had a streak of three straight 20 point games recently, snapped on Saturday with a 13-point effort at NC State. Sallis’ outside shooting has dropped off significantly, going from 40.5 percent last year, easily a career high, back down to 28.8 percent this year, which is closer to where his percentage was at Gonzaga.

Cameron Hildreth, Guard

Another familiar face on a roster that hasn’t had a ton of turnover, the 6-foot-4 guard from Worthing, England is having the best year of his career as a senior. Hildreth is scoring 14.7 points per contest, up from 13.8 per game a year ago. Hildreth is shooting 43.3 percent from the field and 35.6 percent from three this year, and has been a solid distributor with three assists per game. Hildreth scored 22+ for four straight games, and like Sallis, saw a regression against NC State, scoring 16.

Tre’von Spillers, Forward

One of Wake’s new faces, Spillers came over from nearby Appalachian State, after one season with the Mountaineers. Spillers is an athletic 6-foot-7 wing that can impact the game on both ends of the floor. The sophomore from Charleston, South Carolina is scoring 10.2 points per game while also grabbing 7.7 boards, slight decreases from his averages at App State. Spillers has six double-doubles this year, but hasn’t had one since mid-January, when he went for 18 points and 10 boards against Stanford.

Wake Forest’s postseason hopes are on a razor’s edge, and they’re home. So obviously, this game should mean more to them than it does to a UVa team that had a reality check last week with two lopsided losses. While you can never say never, especially for a Wake Forest team that has seemingly found ways to lose must-win games down the stretch under Steve Forbes, this is one the Deacs need to have, and should get. UVa’s recipe for success would be to knock down a bunch of threes, and hope that Wake’s scoring guards have another off night, something that might be tough for UVa’s defense to accomplish given their recent struggles to stop penetration and guard scoring.

We think Wake handles this one relatively comfortably, and hand UVa a third-straight loss heading into their final three games.