Heading into the second-to-last week of the regular season, a lot of UVa fans are waiting to hear who will lead the team at quarterback on Saturday, and perhaps for the remainder of the season. Anthony Colandrea was pulled at halftime of UVa’s loss to Notre Dame for Tony Muskett, who finished the contest. Colandrea, who has started every game this year after winning the job in camp, threw three first-half interceptions and was just 8-for-21 passing for 69 yards in the loss.
Saturday’s game was the first time that Colandrea has truly been benched in his Virginia career. He started six games last year, with Tony Muskett re-taking his job when returning for injury, but the insinuation all along was that Muskett was the starter, and Colandrea was filling in. This year, Colandrea earned the job in camp, and until recently, there has been no controversy about his role. But of late, his play has slipped, and UVa has struggled offensively in most of their games. Muskett has played well in relief too, which only adds fuel to the fire.
On Saturday, Muskett was 9-for-14 passing for 104 yards in the second half against the Irish, and also rushed for a pair of touchdowns, UVa’s only points in the game. Muskett has played in relief seven times this season, mostly in mop-up duty, but is 26-of-40 for 367 yards and three touchdowns, with one fourth-down interception against Richmond. These outings from Muskett are a bit tricky to evaluate, as he’s often playing with the game decided and sometimes either with or against backups. Against Notre Dame, we got to see Muskett in extended action against a quality opponent, and he did fairly well. There’s also plenty of work to evaluate from last season, too, so it’s not like Muskett’s game is a total mystery.
And now, sitting at 5-5, Tony Elliott has perhaps the biggest personnel decision of his head coaching career. Does he stick with Colandrea, or go with Muskett? The mounting up of losses and shaky play from Colandrea would make a change more palatable, but there’s lots to consider.
The justification to make the change is not hard to find. For starters, UVa has lost a bunch of games lately, the upset win at Pitt the lone exception. UVa’s 4-1 start has given way to a 5-5 record with a few games to play. The offense’s play at large is a major contributor to these losses, and in particular, the passing game. Despite the losses, Virginia’s ground game has actually done fairly well in some recent games. There were rough outings against Clemson and UNC, but the Hoos have rushed for 128 yards or more in three of their last five games.
Virginia’s offense has generated 10 touchdowns in the last four games. Despite playing limited snaps in all of those contests, Muskett is responsible for half of those touchdowns, either through the air or on the ground. Colandrea, on the other hand,has accounted for three of those 10 touchdowns, and led the scoring drives on five total. He’s also now had two games where no Cavalier touchdowns were scored while he was playing (UNC, Notre Dame).
On top of all that, Colandrea is suddenly very turnover prone, with seven giveaways in his last four starts. The turnover margin can be correlated quite easily with the offense’s regression, which should come as no surprise. In the first six games of the year UVa had seven turnovers, but four of them came against Maryland, their worst loss in the stretch. In the last four games, UVa has turned it over at least once in all of them, with 10 in total. The defense and special teams have actually done a decent job creating their own takeaways, with five turnovers gained in the last four contests, but the offense has negated any advantage they’d have.
UVa had even turnover margins against Clemson and Pitt, but were -2 vs UNC and -3 against Notre Dame, with three interceptions in the first half alone. It’s fair to say that the other two turnovers, which came first, may have led to the next three. But if the two fumbles put UVa in a bad spot, the next three turnovers ended their chances of any sort of comeback.
The other reason change might be in order at quarterback is that the Hoos are still playing for something. UVa’s two remaining games have stakes and while they might not set the program up for years to come or wreck any signs of progress, they are certainly important. On Saturday, UVa hosts ACC leader SMU; the Mustangs are looking to clinch a spot in the ACC title game with a win. Virginia, on the other hand, has one last shot to grab another victory at home, on Senior Day. UVa needs one win to clinch bowl eligibility for the first time in the Elliott era, and an upset of SMU at home may be just as likely as them winning the following game, at Virginia Tech. UVa has had no success winning in Blacksburg this century, and while they won’t be playing a dominant Hokies team, they’ll be underdogs. If UVa loses to SMU, bowl eligibility can be thrown into this game too, which is already pivotal for obvious reasons.
So what’s the case for sticking with Colandrea? It may be as simple as the coaching staff continuing to feel that he’s the better quarterback, and gives the team the best chance to win. Perhaps they believe the interceptions and other issues Colandrea has demonstrated aren’t totally on him, but are a byproduct of what he has around him, and they feel that Muskett will have similar outcomes if he plays full games.
There’s also the locker room to think about. It seems that both players are pretty popular among their peers, but there are certainly factions within the team that have different opinions on what UVa should do next at the position. Plus there’s the long-term plan with Colandrea that could be at stake. Muskett is done with football after this season. If he finishes the year as the starter, it won’t do anything for UVa’s 2025 team, which could very well be Colandrea’s once again. But if he gets benched, does Colanrdrea start thinking about other options for the rest of his career, or does it do damage to his psyche heading into 2025 even if he does stay?
The coaching staff is around the players every day, and should have a better idea of what each quarterback is capable of in games with this supporting cast, than the fanbase or media does. But with two games left, there’s still time for Elliott and his staff to plant their flag, and make a difficult choice, regardless of what they decide. There are obvious pros and cons to both paths forward, and publicly, they’ll be judged based on whether their decision, whether it was the right thing or not, was successful. Elliott also might have to make a decision between sacrificing today for the future, or pushing his chips in on winning now, and making a change because what they’ve been doing isn’t working out. And of course, if they go with Muskett, there’s no guarantee that will work, or that results will be dramatically different. UVa fans should prepare themselves for that possibility too.
If UVa gets another win to get to bowl eligibility, and especially if they beat Virginia Tech, it would be a great outcome for Elliott and the program. This week, they’ll have to decide if they feel that they can course correct with Colandrea and that they’re still on track to finish strong, or if it’s time for something different, in hopes that it allows the Hoos to maximize their opportunity to win one of these two remaining games.
It’s not a easy call to make, but this is one of the reasons head coaches make the big bucks. These are the decisions that can make or break a program, and Coach Elliott has a big one on his hands heading into the final couple weeks of his third season.
