Hoops Minutes: Breaking down the forwards and bigs

With Virginia’s basketball roster coming into focus, and very little turnover to speak of, it appears the Cavaliers will have a deep roster with tons of competition for spots. And while there are plenty of familiar faces, including all five of UVa’s starters and its top bench contributor, there will also be an infusion of talent.

In our first installment, we took a look at the depth in the backcourt and at the wing spot and tried to project what playing time could look like next season.

Today, we take a look at UVa’s big men, and attempt to project what playing time could look like in the frontcourt.

Jayden Gardner

2021-2022 MPG: 32.7

Gardner had a successful first season at Virginia after transferring in from ECU and should be a big part of any success the Wahoos have next year. He led UVa in scoring at 15.3 points per game and really settled into his role as the season went along. Gardner’s ability to score in the mid-range and around the rim helped offset UVa’s poor outside shooting, providing key scoring down the stretch in plenty of games.

Gardner may have led the team in scoring but he didn’t play as much as his counterparts in the backcourt. His minutes seemed more consistent late in the season, when he played 35 or more in 13 of the final 15 games (the other two were not close in the second half). Gardner, who stands just 6-foot-6, played most of his minutes at the 4, alongside Kihei Clark, Reece Beekman, Armaan Franklin, and one of the two big men. It seems likely going into next season that Gardner will be used in a similar role, though this roster is different.

Virginia seemingly has more depth and options in the “middle” of the lineup, which means more flexibility. Tony Bennett could use a bigger lineup or a smaller one, though Gardner seems likely to continue to get most of his minutes at power forward. He’s too small to play the 5 against most or all opponents, and while he could drop down and play the 3, UVa has other options there that are better suited to that role, because of their outside shooting abilities.

Garnder’s Projection:

Role: Starting power forward, almost all minutes played at that spot

Minutes Per Game: 33

Ben Vander Plas

MPG: 35.3 (at Ohio)

UVa added the transfer forward last month and he figures to make an immediate impact. Vander Plas comes to Charlottesville from Ohio, where he was a pivotal part of the team’s 25-win season, scoring 14.3 points and grabbing 6.8 rebounds per contest. Virginia fans are likely familiar with Vander Plas from his 17-point effort in Ohio’s upset win over the Hoos in the first round of the 2021 NCAA Tournament.

Vander Plas played the 4 for Ohio but was often used on the perimeter. He is a decent outside shooter who can also pass from the perimeter in addition to his skills in the paint.

As for how Vander Plas will be used at Virginia, the best comparison is likely Sam Hauser, though there are some differences between the two. Hauser was more of a classic wing that was a prolific outside shooter but could also handle assignments at the 4 spot in Bennett’s system. In Hauser’s lone season at Virginia, UVa was able to interchange him with Trey Murphy, who also played on the wing. Hauser was the starter at the 4 in a small ball look, so there is a precedent for having a player at the 4 play inside and outside while getting opportunities to knock down outside shots.

The two big questions for Vander Plas are how quickly will he pick up UVa’s system, and does Virginia end up favoring a “big” lineup, with BVP at the 3?

Assuming Vander Plas can learn the pack-line quickly and get significant playing time right away—and we expect him to—how does that affect UVa’s preferred lineups to start games and in crunch time? Ultimately, assuming that Gardner plays the 4 as he did last year, we could be setting up for a “competition” between Franklin and Vander Plas for the 3, and that decision could be decided by performance (particularly shooting) but also what sort of lineup Bennett favors with this group.

A Clark-Beekman-Vander Plas-Gardner-Kadin Shedrick starting lineup would provide more size, and Vander Plas isn’t necessarily going to be a downgrade from a shooting perspective over Franklin, potentially an upgrade in fact. A smaller lineup with Franklin at the 3 would be more of what we saw last year and would provide more ball handling options. Franklin will also likely share wing minutes with some of the newcomers, so their development will be a factor at the three spot as well.

To start off the season, our guess is that UVa rolls out the smaller lineup but Vander Plas is the first player off the bench and plays starter-like minutes. And by the end of the year, UVa could be defaulting to the bigger lineup with Vander Plas starting alongside Gardner. He can also spell Gardner at the four spot, when he’s out of the game, which he could do plenty.

Vander Plas’ Projection:

Role: Sixth man or “big wing” starter

Minutes Per Game: 22

Kadin Shedrick

2021-2022 MPG: 20.8

Shedrick took a big step forward in his development last season, going from a seldom-used role player to a co-starter and significant part of UVa’s solution in the frontcourt. He saw his minutes per game go up from 7.8 in 2020-2021 to 20.8 in 2021-2022, starting 19 of UVa’s 35 games at center. Shedrick finished the season averaging 6.9 points and 5.1 rebounds per contest, shooting 64.1 percent from the field.

While Shedrick took a big step forward in his redshirt sophomore season, his playing time did vary quite a bit on a game-by-game basis. For example, he played 30 minutes in the February win over Miami and 26 in the following game against Duke, but then played just 10 minutes in the following game, a loss to Florida State. Shedrick played as many as 31 minutes (against Syracuse and Boston College) and as few as 10 or 11 in other contests.

Both of UVa’s options at center form last season will be back on the roster this fall, and it seems like a good bet that they will continue to split time. But Shedrick has more upside and athletic ability, which means that he has more room for growth and potentially could go from splitting the role to being the primary option next season.

Whether that happens or not remains to be seen, but if Shedrick can continue to make gains in the weight room and strive to be a more consistent performer on both ends, then an increase in playing time and a solidified starter role could certainly be on the table. If not, Shedrick will still be counted upon to rotate in an out as he did this past season.

Our guess is that his role gets bigger next season and he becomes the full-time starter at the position, though he still doesn’t get to 30 minutes per game.

Shedrick’s 2022-23 Projection:

Role: Starting center

Minutes Per Game: 26

Francisco Caffaro

2021-2022 MPG: 17.7

Shedrick’s running-mate at center, Caffaro platooned with his fellow big man and essentially took all the minutes that Shedrick didn’t play there. Caffaro finished the season playing 17.7 minutes per game, starting 16 contests. His playing time and scoring increased significantly after Jay Huff’s departure, and as a junior the Argentinian scored 4.3 points and grabbed 4.6 rebounds per game.

Caffaro is more limited on the offensive end of the floor than Shedrick but earned significant playing time because he was often a more steady presence. Caffaro, like Shedrick, saw significant ebbs and flows in terms of playing time, playing 30 minutes against Mississippi State and just 13 against St. Bonaventure, for example.

Caffaro should certainly expect to see playing time next season but if Shedrick makes a leap in his own development Caffaro could see his time on the court slashed a bit. He himself could continue to develop, but Shedrick is the more “talented” player and has more room for growth.

Best case for Caffaro would be to become a more polished offensive player and see similar playing time, or maybe a bit more, than he did as a junior. The more-likely scenario is that he continues to see plenty of time at the center spot but perhaps not quite as many minutes next season.

Caffaro’s 2022-23 Projection:

Role: Backup center, rotational role

Minutes Per Game: 13

Leon Bond

MPG: N/A

One of two Cavalier freshmen in the frontcourt, Bond has the potential to evolve into another elite perimeter defender in Bennett’s pack-line defense. Bond, a four-star prospect fro Wisconsin, chose UVa over offers from Marquette, Cincinnati, and others. He has good length at 6-foot-5 and ultimately likely ends up at the 3 during his Cavalier career.

Virginia’s incoming freshman class is talented but their path to the court as rookies isn’t totally clear yet. Bond is the type of player that could come in, earn playing time, and see the floor early. But he could also take time to “season” as he learns the schemes, works in the weight room, and sits behind UVa’s veteran players, of which there are many.

The wing spots on the roster are relatively crowded, so any time Bond plays this year will have to truly be earned through great work in practice. Our guess is that Bond does play this season, in a limited role. And like Ryan Dunn, he could be a redshirt candidate if it looks like he has some work to do, and playing time isn’t readily available.

Bond’s 2022-23 Projection:

Role: Reserve wing competing for minutes; possible redshirt

Minutes Per Game: <5

Isaac Traudt

MPG: N/A

The incoming freshman has a great blend of size and skill, with a lot of tools that imply he could develop into a future pro. Traudt, who hails from Nebraska, is another four-star prospect, having chosen the Cavaliers over offers from Kansas, Michigan State, North Carolina, and many more. At 6-foot-9, 200 pounds, he has the frame of a post player but can stretch the floor with his outside shot as well.

Traudt has the skillset to get on the court early but it will likely come down to where he is physically and if he can learn the pack-line quickly. He projects to play at the 4, though he may be able to play as a big 3. And once he is more physically mature, perhaps Traudt could contribute as a small center when UVa goes small. It’s hard to imagine that he will be ready to take on that sort of role as a freshman, however.

Traudt’s path to playing time became more complicated with Vander Plas’ decision. It’s fair to expect that some of the minutes he may have played next season will go to the incoming transfer, as their skillsets overlap and Vander Plas is the more mature, experienced player. Still, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Traudt find his way into the rotation early, which could take some pressure off of Gardner, Vander Plas, and others.

Traudt’s 2022-23 Projection:

Role: Reserve forward, spelling Gardner and Vander Plas

Minutes Per Game: 8