Virginia (10-12, 3-8 ACC) at Pittsburgh (14-7, 5-5 ACC)

7pm, ESPN

After a heartbreaking last-second loss to Virginia Tech, UVa must quickly pick up the pieces and get ready to go again, playing at Pittsburgh tonight (7pm, ESPN). UVa’s rally against their rivals came up short when Andrew Rohde’s buzzer beater fell off the rim, and the loss dropped UVa to 10-12 with nine games remaining in the season. The road doesn’t get any easier, with a talented Pitt team on deck.

While UVa has struggled through what can only be considered a transition year, the Panthers are looking to get back to the NCAA Tournament after barely missing out last year. Right now, Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology for ESPN has Pitt as a 10 seed, one of the last at-large bids in the field. Pitt is 14-7 on the season and 5-5 in ACC play, but have solid metrics and a few decent wins. Pitt hasn’t exactly been red hot of late, however. The Panthers did win two in a row last week, knocking off Syracuse and UNC, but they lost at Wake Forest on Saturday, their fifth loss in their last seven contests after a 12-2 start overall, and 3-0 in ACC play.

Pitt beat UVa in their lone regular-season meeting last year, at JPJ. That loss ended UVa’s eight-game winning streak, beginning the Hoos’ downward trend towards the postseason that nearly cost them an NCAA Tournament bid. Virginia last won at Pittsburgh on January 19th, 2022.

Pitt has the record of a bubble team, but the metrics of a team that could be solidly in the field. The Panthers rank #36 in Kenpom, a few spots behind Louisville and a few ahead of SMU, for reference. Pitt ranks 19th nationally in offensive efficiency, and should be a tough cover for a Cavalier defense that had some rough moments against the Hokies on Saturday. Pitt ranks 16th in turnover rate on offense, and make 35.7 percent of their threes. Pitt is also very good at the free throw line, making 79.7 percent of their attempts, 7th best nationally.

Defensively Pittsburgh isn’t bad, but they’re not quite as elite as they are on the other end of the floor. Pitt ranks 76th in defensive efficiency. The Panthers do a great job defending the rim, ranking 37th nationally in block rate. Their opponents are making 49.2 percent of their two point tries and 33.5 percent from three, which are both relatively average percentages allowed. Pitt ranks 132nd nationally in turnover rate, and 114th in steal rate.

Jaland Lowe, Guard

Pitt’s top scorer, sophomore guard Jaland Lowe has taken a big step forward in his development. Lowe was a solid player as a freshman but this year he’s picked up a lot of the scoring lost when Bub Carrington went pro last summer. Lowe is scoring 17.4 points and dishing out 5.6 assists per game, and has had multiple double-digit assist games this year. Lowe is coming off of a 14-point effort in Saturday’s loss at Wake, his lowest scoring output since droppin eight against Duke back on January 7th.

Ishmael Leggett, Guard

Another talented scoring guard, Ishmael Leggett is in his second year with the Panthers after a three-year run at Rhode Island. Leggett is averaging a career-best 16.5 points per game this season, shooting 47 percent from the field and 34 percent from three. The PG County native is also a solid rebounder at 5.7 boards per game. Leggett has scored 15+ in each of Pitt’s last four games, and has 13+ in all but two games this season.

Cameron Corhen, Forward

Junior forward Cameron Corhen has made a major impact in his first season with the Panthers, after playing at Florida State for his first two collegiate years. COrhen, a 6-foot-10 junior from Allen, Texas, is scoring a career-best 10.7 points per game, grabbing 5.7 boards per contest as well. A tough cover around the rim, Corhen has 14 10+ point scoring efforts this season, most recently going for 143 at UNC last week.

It’s hard to imagine a scenario where UVa wins this game, frankly. Unless Pitt has a nightmarish shooting performance and UVa does the opposite, this is a game the the Panthers should not just win, but handle comfortably. Pitt has too much offensively for the Hoos, who are expected to once again be without Elijah Saunders who is day-to-day. The quick turnaround and road trip isn’t helping the cause for the Hoos either. This seems like one of the least-likely wins in Virginia’s final nine games, as they try to earn a spot in the ACC Tournament.