UVa (18-5, 9-3 ACC) at Florida State (13-9, 7-4 ACC)
8 p.m., CW
After a few extra days off, the Wahoos will head back on the road this weekend, looking to stay hot when they take on the Florida State Seminoles in Tallahassee tomorrow.
UVa is coming off of a trashing of Miami on Monday night, its seventh-straight victory and the nation’s ninth-longest winning streak. The Cavaliers are now in second place in the ACC after a 2-3 start, and with eight games to go have a real shot to compete for the title or at least a top four finish if they can keep winning.
A win Saturday at FSU would also be UVa’s fourth-straight road win after starting the campaign 0-4 in true road contests.
The opponents in this one may not have a tournament resume at this point but they are just one game back of UVa and two games back of first place in the ACC in the loss column. The Seminoles had a rough go of it last year, winning just nine games, though seven came in league play. This year, they were picked to finish 11th in the preseason poll and are very likely to beat that prediction.
The Noles enter tomorrow’s game 13-9 and 7-4 in ACC play, coming off of a nailbiter of a win at Boston College on Tuesday. FSU started the year 4-5 and had a four-game losing streak that lasted into mid-December, but then got hot, winning seven of eight and five in a row against ACC foes for a 5-1 league start. Things have cooled off a bit since, with the Seminoles losing three of their last five, including two home games (Clemson and UNC) and a bad road loss at Louisville where they (somehow) surrendered 101 points.
Saturday’s game is another Quad-2 opportunity for the Hoos after they picked one up by beating the Hurricanes on Monday. The resume is in a much better place than it was a week or two ago, and they should be fine if they simply continue winning, at least most of their remaining games.
The Numbers
FSU ranks 79th in KenPom, which is nearly its highest mark of the season despite some recent losses. The offense is below average for an ACC team, ranking 135th in efficiency, though that is 16 spots ahead of the Hoos. With the basketball, FSU likes to get up an down, ranking 34th nationally in adjusted tempo. The Seminoles aren’t a particularly-strong shooting team, ranking 224th nationally in effective field-goal rate and 242nd in 3-point shooting; they’re also 290th at the free-throw line. They do take care of the basketball most of the time, though, and allow very few steals and blocks. They could be tested a bit more in the half court to be sound with their passes and shots around the rim in this one than usual.
Defensively, FSU has been much better in large part. The Noles rank 36th nationally in defensive efficiency, and are one of the best teams in the nation at creating turnovers, ranking 28th in that category. They are 14th nationally in steals, which can create transition opportunities for easy buckets. They also rank 61st in block rate. FSU does foul quite a bit, ranking 339th in free throw rate allowed, though UVa might not be the best team to take advantage of that given its struggles at the line.
The Matchups
Jamir Watkins, Forward
FSU’s leading scorer, he joined the program in the offseason after two years at VCU. Watkins is averaging 13.7 points and 5.8 rebounds per contest in his first season in the ACC, and has had a few big scoring nights. He went for 27 points and 11 rebounds in a big road win at Syracuse a few weeks ago.
Darin Green Jr., Guard
A fifth-year senior, Green has averaged 10+ points per game in all five of his collegiate seasons. Having played three years at UCF before transferring to FSU last year, he is averaging 12 points and 3.1 rebounds per game this season, which is actually down a bit from the 13.4 points per contest last year. Green is a career 38-percent 3-point shooter, over 39 percent for this year. His scoring has been a bit less punchy of late, with just 8 points at BC on Tuesday, and no more than 14 in any game since early January.
Primo Spears, Guard
The junior guard is on his third team in as many years, having spent last year at Georgetown and the year season at Duquesne. He had to get a waiver to play right away with the Noles and has ended up being a big part of their 2023-24 season. Spears is averaging 11.4 points and 2.3 assists per contest, playing in 14 games. He was quiet on Tuesday at BC, having been held scoreless on six shots, but he did have 17 at Louisville last weekend. His 0-point effort in Chestnut Hill was his first game under 10 points since the game at Wake on January 9.
Baba Miller, Forward
Miller has continued FSU’s tradition of having one (or more) capable big men that can give an opposing team problems around the rim. A 6-foot-11 Spaniard, he’s scoring 7.5 points and grabbing 5 rebounds per game this year. Miller can score around the basket and defend it too, averaging 1.2 blocks per game. He also can step out and hit 3s from time to time as well, and takes 2.6 per contest, making 31 percent.
The Outlook
Tomorrow’s game is on the road and that is always a challenge to overcome. UVa will also be dealt an interesting test against Florida State’s length, something the Noles have at all five positions. Leonard Hamilton always seems to have an athletic roster and the skill can sometimes vary; this team is far better than what UVa saw from FSU a year ago and that team was still plenty competitive.
Historically, FSU has had one of the best home-court advantages in the league, too, but this year the Seminoles have actually been better away from home, going 4-2 in road ACC games, and 3-2 at home.
UVa probably played its best game of the season on Monday in the win over Miami and have had a few extra days to prepare for this one. Florida State, which his coming off a mid-week bye, can certainly win, and UVa will have to go out and earn the victory in what will likely be a physical game.
Given how the Hoos have played of late, we like their chances to extend their win streak to eight.