Virginia Tech (9-12, 4-6 ACC) at Virginia (10-11, 3-7 ACC)

4pm ACCN

Following a mid-week win at Miami, UVa returns home this afternoon, looking to make it three wins in four games, when they host rival Virginia Tech at a sold out JPJ (4pm ACCN). Virginia had a loss to Notre Dame sandwiched in between wins over Boston College and Miami, and now take on the Hokies, in what can only be described as the most favorable portion of their ACC schedule.

Both UVa and Tech are coming off of wins, and both are still looking to secure a place in the 15-team ACC Tournament. Virginia Tech’s overall record of 9-12 is not great for a power conference team at this stage in the season, but the Hokies have actually been relatively competitive in league play. Tech started 3-0 before a brutal six-game losing streak that only included one ACC loss, but since then, the Hokies are 6-6 on the season, and 4-5 in conference play over their last nine. VT won three games in four in January, beating Miami, Cal and NC State while losing to Stanford on the road, but then dropped three straight, to Wake, Georgia Tech and Clemson, killing off some of their momentum. But the Hokies did notch a 10-point win at FSU on Wednesday night to get to 4-6 in ACC play.

The Hoos and Hokies have had a competitive regular-season series over the last decade or so, with neither team sweeping the season series since UVa did it in 2020; neither team has won on the other’s home floor since then, and the Hokies haven’t won in Charlottesville since 2018.

The Hokies come to Charlottesville ranked #162 in Kenpom, 41 spots behind UVa. Tech has been pretty average on both ends of the floor this season, ranking 157th nationally in offensive efficiency, and 179th in defensive efficiency. On offense, Tech has struggled with giving the ball away, ranking 321st nationally in turnover rate. They’ve also made just 48.6 percent of their two-point field goals, and are 239th nationally in block rate allowed. Their biggest strength comes in outside shooting, where their 36.3 percent three-point average ranks 68th nationally. All those threes lead to some long rebounds, and the Hokies are 81st nationally in offensive rebound rate.

On defense, while Tech has struggled to score in the paint, they’ve also had a hard time protecting it. Tech ranks 291st in two-point defense, allowing opponents to make 54.4 percent of those shots. They also don’t force many takeaways, ranking 242nd nationally in turnover rate, and 323rd in steal rate. It doesn’t help either that the Hokies have had some bad luck at the free throw line, with opponents making 75.4 percent of their shots at the stripe.

Tobi Lawal, Forward

Virginia Tech’s leading scorer, as is the case at many programs around the country, is an impact transfer. Tech added forward Tobi Lawal from VCU in the offseason, and may not have planned on having him lead the team in scoring, but Lawal is having a career year, averaging 12.8 points and 6.8 rebounds per game. Lawal is a bouncy player that can make athletic plays at the rim, and will also step out and hit the occasional three. Lawal is coming off of a 17 point, 13 rebound effort at FSU, his fourth double-double of the year.

Jaden Schutt, Guard

Another transfer addition, Jaden Schutt made the inter-ACC move from Duke to Blacksburg last spring. Schutt was a reserve at Duke, but has taken on a significant role with the Hokies, averaging 8.5 points per game. Schutt is a volume three-point shooter, taking nearly six per contest, hitting 35.2 percent of those attempts. Schutt has had some big games and quieter performances, but had a nice game in Tallahassee on Wednesday, going for 16 points, including 7-for-8 at the line.

Brandon Rechsteiner, Guard

After playing just 9 minutes per game last season, sophomore point guard Brandon Rechsteiner has taken on a much larger role with this Hokies team. Playing 22.5 minutes per contest, Rechsteiner is averaging 7 points per game, shooting 31.6 percent from three. Rechsteiner has done a solid job as a distributor, at 3.1 assists per contest. The son of wrestler Scott Steiner, Rechsteiner is looking for his first double-digit scoring effort since dropping 10 at Wake on January 18th.

Honestly, who knows? After UVa’s win against BC, we picked the Hoos to beat Notre Dame at home last weekend. Virginia trailed by as many as 27 points in that game, on the way to a lopsided loss. Then the Cavaliers beat Miami with two of their starters out. And this game could come down to how healthy the Hoos are. Elijah Saunders and Andrew Rohde have both been dealing with injury issues, and if they’re both out, Tech has a much easier path to win. If UVa is at full strength, they seem like the slightly better team in a matchup of two in-state rivals in rebuilding years.

We’re going with UVa, but this pick can’t be described as anything other than a guess with how these teams have played of late.