Miami (15-7, 6-5 ACC ) at Virginia (17-5, 8-3 ACC)
7 p.m., ESPN
After a dramatic weekend win at Clemson, UVa will look to stay tonight when the Wahoos host Miami. It will be a quick turnaround for both teams, as each squad scored wins on Saturday afternoon. The Cavaliers ride into tonight’s showdown on a six-game winning streak, their longest of the season, while also looking to extend their nation-leading 22-game home winning streak.
Miami, which entered the season with high expectations after returning several key players from last year’s Final Four team, was picked second in the ACC preseason poll and received five first-place votes. The Canes started the season 5-0 and eventually ran their record to 11-2 but have been up-and-down in ACC play. They rallied to beat Virginia Tech on Saturday, meaning they’ll come to Charlottesville having won three of their last four. But Miami lost five games in January and has gone from a likely NCAA Tournament team to one that has a lot of work to do.
UVa’s win over Clemson was big for its NCAA Tournament resume, as it falls in the Quad-1 category and gives UVa a pair of Q1 wins on the year (Florida). The Hoos are up to No. 42 in the NET rankings and have another opportunity to improve their standing in this one. The game is even bigger for the Hurricanes, as a win at UVa would be a Q1 victory for them, while a win over Miami is a Quad-2 win opportunity for Virginia.
The Numbers
Miami ranks 66th in KenPom heading into tonight’s tilt; the Canes have been ranked as high as 36th this season. They are 44th nationally in offensive efficiency and 114th on the defensive end.
On offense, Miami has shot the ball well from all areas of the floor. The Hurricanes are 19th nationally in 3-point percentage at 38.1 and make 54.5 percent of their twos, which ranks 38th nationally. And when they get to the free-throw line, they usually handle their business. They have made 77.7 percent of their free throws, 18th best nationally; they went 27-of-29 from the line in Saturday’s comeback win over VT. If they do have a weakness on offense its turnovers, particularly the live-ball variety: Miami ranks 258th nationally in steals allowed per possession.
On defense, Miami hasn’t been quite as good but does have a few strengths. While the Canes shoot the ball well from the outside, their opponents don’t. Miami is allowing opponents to shoot just 30.2 percent from beyond the arc this year, 28th best nationally. On the flipside, opponents do make a lot of twos, at 52.8 percent. Miami doesn’t force a lot of turnovers but is top-100 nationally in steal rate. The Canes also don’t allow opponents to get to the line much, ranking third nationally in free-throw-to field-goal-attempt ratio.
The Matchups
Nigel Pack, Guard
Miami’s starting point guard is one of the best in the ACC and is a key piece for this Hurricanes team. Pack, who started his career at Kansas State, is averaging 14.7 points per game. For UVa that would be tops on the team, but at Miami, it’s only good for third. He is also the team’s top distributor at 3.6 assists per game. The junior from Indianapolis scored 14 in Saturday’s win over Virginia Tech and 23 in Tuesday’s loss at NC State.
Norchad Omier, Forward
Omier was a first-team All-ACC pick in the preseason and has a decent shot to make the first team at season’s end. Miami’s top scorer at 18 points per game, he is one of the league’s top offensive players. Omier is making nearly 40 percent of his 3s and has scored in double figures in all but two games this season. On January 24, he went for 33 points and 10 boards at Notre Dame. In addition to his scoring punch, Omier is one of the conference’s best rebounders at 9.8 per contest.
Matthew Cleveland, Forward
Virginia has quite a bit of experience facing Cleveland, though not with the Canes. He had a solid career at Florida State, including a last-second heave to beat UVa in JPJ two years ago, before transferring to Miami in the offseason. Cleveland has been a good pickup for the Canes, averaging 14.9 points and 6.2 rebounds per contest, while shooting 38.2 percent from deep. He posted a pair of double-doubles against UVa last year, going for 11 points and 10 boards at JPJ, and 10 points and 10 rebounds in the rematch in Tallahassee.
Wooga Poplar, Guard
Yet another top scoring option, Poplar is fourth on the team in scoring but averages 14.2 points per game. He has been a bit more inconsistent than the three players already mentioned, having four 20+ point games but none since December 21. Poplar was also quiet against UVa last year with just 3 points, but is certainly capable of getting hot. Like his aforementioned teammates, he is another good outside shooter, making 44.8 percent of his 3s.
The Outlook
UVa should be more comfortable at home but make no mistake, this is a dangerous opponent for the Hoos. In many ways, Miami is constructed to beat this UVa team. The Canes have a bunch of good shooters, make their free throws, and can hold their own on the glass. They have also shown that they can win away from home in ACC play, having already won games in Blacksburg and South Bend. On top of that, this is a quick turnaround for both teams, after both had hard-fought games on Saturday. That may be an advantage for the Wahoos given the short turnaround time to prepare for their style of play, but it is another factor to consider for both teams.
We’re still going with UVa here but this could be another tricky one for the Cavaliers. They’ll need to take care of the glass and find a way to get the Hurricanes to shoot worse than their season averages while also not letting them get to the line much since they are so good there. We’ll take the Hoos in another close one that looks like it could go either way.