On December 30th, 2015, then newly-hired coach Bronco Mendenhall got his first face time with UVa fans, speaking to the crowd at a men’s basketball game. He set high expectations for his first Virginia team: “I only know winning football. And I don’t know what it’s like to be home in the holidays. Bowl games happen with this program. And so if the past is any indication, 11 years as a head coach, 11 straight bowl games, and why not start making it 12 this next season.”

The crowd loved it.

Eight months later, a much more humble Mendenhall faced the media after a less-than-fluky 34-17 season-opening loss at the hands of an FCS program.

“This is a really clear indicator of the amount of work that lies ahead,” he said, “the amount of work that I have to put in.”

Six years later, his successor and his team won their opener against that same FCS opponent but were humbled on the field plenty of times over the weeks to come. Tony Elliott did not take over the same program that Mendenhall inherited, but both coaches likely learned lessons about the struggles that can come in Year 1 of a job and how it may be foolish to expect the ship to sail smoothly, even if expectations are high internally, or from the outside world.

Mendenhall eventually turned things around in his second year. Now the question is, can Elliott do the same?

Elliott went 3-7 in his first season, which was tragically cut short when November’s shooting claimed the lives of three players, Lavel Davis Jr, D'Sean Perry and Devin Chandler. Elliott’s job in the days and weeks to follow would be to steward the program as best he could and help it move forward. It’s impossible for Elliott to separate that, even now, from his role as the head coach of a college football team. But for the purposes of this column, we’re focusing on the football-specific outcomes for the 2022 team and looking forward at a 2023 season that could be a bit of a referendum on where the program stands under its second-year head coach.

There were some early warning signs that it not be a breeze. In two fall camp practices with media availability at the end, part or all of the team were running as a group at the end. That’s not typical and usually means something went awry during practice. After one of those practices, as the offense ran behind him, OC Des Kitchings said the offense had six turnovers during the practice.

Elliott also talked a few weeks later about having to cut out fighting in practice, something that many programs allow to release frustrations, to ensure the team was focused on the content of the practice. It’s worth noting that UVa didn’t have a lot of post-snap penalties under Mendenhall, so it’s hard to pin UVa’s issues post-snap in 2022 practices or games on the previous staff.

As losses mounted and the best-possible outcomes for the season faded away, frustration set in on the Virginia sideline. Elliott said so himself, after a rough 38-17 loss at Duke in October: “If you saw me on the sideline, I was irate. Because we’re struggling as a football team to try and win after the snap. Win the trash talking contest, win the face-to-face and the pushing. We need to focus on, during the play, doing your job with great fundamentals, great technique. And then, get your eyes to the sideline so we can process the next call coming in so we can play fast.”

Those are the words of a frustrated coach. UVa had six penalties for 87 yards in that loss, certainly costly, but there were other issues, too. The sloppiness juxtaposed with Duke’s efficiency, given that both programs had first-year head coaches and the Blue Devils were expected to be far worse than the Hoos, was a tough pill for the Cavalier faithful to swallow.

Later in the same press conference, Elliott answered a question about the team’s buy-in and said rather plainly that there was still work to do in making his vision for the program come to life on the field: “They’re all good young men in that locker room. But we’ve got to take it to another level. Again, them fully understanding where I’m coming from, and trusting me and what I say. I’m not going to say there’s mistrust, but they haven’t quite seen the results and they’ve been trying. But there’s still consistently within that trying that we’ve got to get to in order for the results to come.”

Vegas pegged the Cavaliers to win seven or eight games, mostly because of the talent on offense. In an era where departures through the transfer portal are easier than ever, Elliott was able to convince Brennan Armstrong, Dontayvion Wicks, and others to stay. The hope was that they could replicate the success they saw in 2021, win some games, and help their draft stock in the process.

None of that happened. Instead, UVa’s offense ranked 117th or worse nationally (of 131 FBS programs) in 3rd-down conversions, red-zone scoring and TD rate, turnover margin, sacks allowed per game, and 20+ yard plays. That’s not even considering issues running the football (3.7 yards per attempt), issues with penalties, miscommunications, and so on. The results showed on the scoreboard, with the Cavaliers scoring just 17 points per game (126th nationally).

There has been a lot of talk since the beginning of last season, questioning how bought into the new schemes UVa’s offensive players were a year ago. That’s a lot to unpack, and there are likely a lot of definitions of what lack of buy-in looks like. The easiest, most-likely case is that the offensive players that thrived under Robert Anae got frustrated when success in the new offense they were asked to learn didn’t come. After rolling past Richmond, UVa struggled mightily to move the ball and score points in the games that followed and frustration clearly mounted. The issues were not with one player or play caller last year. And as struggles continued, it probably became easier for players to question a play call or the coaching they were receiving, or to get annoyed at all the references to Clemson’s success, especially given the success they had collectively just one year earlier.

Players like Armstrong, Wicks, Keytaon Thompson and others were all in on staying at Virginia and learning a new offense. They all would’ve had options, even more enticing in the NIL era, but chose to come back. It could have been particularly valuable for Armstrong, who had options but seemed to want to shed a “system quarterback” identity in a more NFL-friendly offense. He is far from fully responsible but it’s clear that whether UVa’s scheme is a good one or not, the senior quarterback didn’t thrive in it.

As the 2023 season plays out, we’ll likely get a better sense of what went wrong last year and whether the players and scheme didn’t mesh or if the offense was the primary issue.

If there were issues with buy-in and scheme fit, it didn’t seem to be a problem for the defense. While the offense struggled in mightily, the defense saw an impressive turnaround under new DC John Rudzinski. UVa went from a group that finished 121st nationally in total defense in 2021 to a 44th-place finish in 2022. The expectation coming into the season was that the offense would be steady-to-good with so much continuity at key positions, and the defense would, understandably, be a work in progress. Instead, the defense ended up keeping the Hoos in a lot of games, holding opponents under 20 points four times (UVa went 3-1 in those games). If the defense can simply hold at that level this fall, that should give the team an opportunity to win some, provided the offense can make modest improvements.

There are several reasons why the transition was easier for the defensive players and coaches than it seemed to be on offense. For one, the defense had struggled greatly in the last few years of the Mendenhall era, and perhaps the players were hungry for change and embraced it. It’s also possible that Mendenhall’s last few defenses were mismanaged or put the wrong players in the wrong spots, or had gotten stale from a scheme perspective, and a change of coaches breathed new life into a group of solid players who hadn’t played to their potential yet. Or, perhaps the defensive staff, led by Rudzinski, did a better job communicating schemes, roles, and expectations and teaching them.

The defensive staff came to Virginia knowing that their group had to do a lot of improving and showed that they could get it done. The offensive staff inherited a productive group with high expectations, and perhaps they didn’t anticipate—like the fans and many others—how big of a learning curve there would be.

Those on defense rightfully get most of the credit for the improvement but Elliott should get some of the credit, too. He hired Rudzinski, who brought Curome Cox with him, but they also meshed with the other defensive coaches that Elliott had already hired on his own. Even if Elliott simply gets out of the way and lets Rudzinski run the show on that side of the ball, delegation is part of leadership and if it’s working, don’t change it.

Heading into his second season, Elliott seems more comfortable in Charlottesville. The hope is that his culture and schemes are taking root, which will lead to cleaner play and a consistent effort that he felt was lacking at times last year. Before camp, Elliott spoke about having a better understanding of the University, including things like the summer class schedule, which allowed him to better structure fall camp to maximize the time available with the team.

He also told media members that the team should be able to be more “present in the moment” during practice and be less distracted by the way the staff coached or how practice was organized and more focused on the actual football work being done.

“This time last year, I was having to stop the entire team and run as a group because you’ve got guys getting into altercations, and stopping practice,” he said after one fall camp practice this month. “Now, we’re flowing through practice. Guys understand the pace, they understand the structure, they understand the expectations of jogging on and off the field, chasing the ball until the whistle is blown.”

In his media availability during fall camp, Elliott seemed to focus on the positive while admitting there was still plenty of work to do. He also said that his players are further along than they were last year in working together as a team, which if true, is a positive step.

The key, for both the players and coaches, will be to maintain that teamwork and stay upbeat even if results don’t go UVa’s way early.

Last season, basically from the Illinois game on, the vibe around the team and fanbase seemed negative. It was obvious to anyone paying attention, watching the body language of the players and coaches throughout games. Elliott seemed quite frustrated with the results too, and often called out mistakes publicly, either postgame or in his weekly press conference. That was very different from Mendenhall’s approach, and it may have been jarring for UVa’s veteran players not used to that type of candor. After winning so much at Clemson, last year was likely a reality check for Elliott and a reminder of the amount of work it takes to set a program on a course towards consistent excellence.

Winning can turn around a locker room in a hurry, and success this season, particularly if they can pick up some wins early in the season, would demonstrate to the team that they’re heading in the right direction. And that makes it easier to be “bought in.”

There’s a precedent for a big step in the right direction to happen in a coach’s second season. Virginia’s last three coaches before Elliott—Al Groh, Mike London and Mendenhall—were all different people and inherited three different versions of the UVa program, with varying issues, levels of talent, and so on. But all saw a significant jump from Year 1 to Year 2. Groh inherited a talented roster but went 5-7 in year one in the face of a difficult schedule that included six ranked opponents. It was UVa’s first losing season since 1986 but Groh put together four straight winning seasons after his first year, starting with a 9-5 season in Year 2. London went from 4-8 in his first year to 8-5 in Year 2, competing for the Coastal Division and earning a Chick-Fil-A Bowl berth through improvements across the board. Despite not having a lot of personnel additions, Mendenhall went from 2-10 in 2016 to 6-7 in 2017, with the Hoos earning their first bowl bid in six years.

One has to wonder what were the primary drivers of the improvement for each of them and if they could apply to this year’s UVa team. The reality of college football is different now, though, as the transfer portal can change a program’s fortune for better or worse over the course of an offseason. It’s both a potential positive and negative for Elliott that there have been so many changes to personnel on the offensive side. Perhaps it allows the program a bit of a fresh start with players that have been productive elsewhere or the typical Year 1 to Year 2 gains will be offset a bit as schemes and culture are still new to so many key players, particularly on offense.

Heading into the opener this weekend, this is definitely Elliott’s program now. Every player on this roster was either recruited to play at Virginia by Elliott and his staff, either via the transfer portal or from high school, or they got to see Elliott’s culture and coaching style for a year and a half and opted to stay.

Everyone that really wanted a fresh start or felt the schemes or program vision weren’t a fit for them should be gone by now. Every player added to the roster this offseason, including the starting quarterback, was handpicked by this staff. Every player remaining should be bought into schemes that they now better understand and fit the culture of the program. If they don’t, then it falls on the coaching staff to make that right. The staff also should have a better understanding of what players are capable of and after a year of trying different things, should have a better plan for Year 2.

Improvement for this program, as with any, may not directly correlate to a bunch more victories. But UVa fans should expect to see a program better able to execute Elliott’s vision. That means fewer mistakes, better execution of schemes, and improved performance in key areas that determine outcomes. The offense will be under the microscope but that applies to all three phases: If this team has the same issues it did a year ago, the blame should fall squarely on the staff and not so much the players.

If Elliott’s program demonstrates that improvement, even if they don’t reach bowl eligibility in Year 2 like Groh, London, and Mendenhall did, there will be hope that things are headed in a positive direction. If the Cavaliers sputter as they did last year, and there are issues with execution, body language and so on, then a year from now the pressure will be on to show much more dramatic improvement.