Non-conference schedules will likely prove pivotal for Virginia

Virginia is set to open the 2023 football season 101 days in Nashville. The Cavaliers have a challenging slate of games, headlined by that opener against the Tennessee Volunteers, a team coming off of an 11-win season capped with an Orange Bowl title.

And while UVa’s schedule gets easier from there, it’s doesn’t have a lot of easy wins, on paper anyway. The non-conference slate features a pair of Power 5 opponents and two in-state foes coming off of great seasons. The 2024 campaign is going to be another challenge, and as Tony Elliott attempts to turn the program around, a difficult slate of games may become an impediment to progress at least in the win column.

UVa’s next two non-conference schedules look tough and are a result of somewhat aggressive scheduling in addition to semi-mandated games.

Today, we’re taking a look at UVa’s next two non-conference slates and how they may shape the type of seasons the Hoos could have in both years.

Tennessee (in Nashville)

James Madison

at Maryland

William & Mary

The 2023 non-conference schedule is arguably the toughest they’ve faced in many years. This year’s group of four opponents harkens back to the Mike London era, when UVa would play several power conference opponents in the same season. The 2021 non-conference schedule featured William & Mary, Illinois, BYU and Notre Dame but that team was still able to scratch out six wins anyway. Will this UVa squad be able to do the same?

The opener in Nashville was added to the schedule last summer and came out of left field. Tennessee had a good 2021 season but hadn’t yet during its rebuild hit the heights we would see the Vols reach last fall. Regardless, this was quite the challenge for the Hoos to take on given that they already met their non-conference P5 opponent criteria with Maryland. Virginia will go into the opener against Tennessee as a heavy underdog. And even though fans should manage expectations and a loss is far from a disaster, it doesn’t help in the grand scheme of things to open 0-1 versus 1-0 with a win against, say, a MAC opponent.

The home opener probably won’t be a cakewalk, either, but the scheduling circumstances are different. JMU is entering its second year as the Commonwealth’s fifth FBS program, having a very successful debut last fall. The Dukes are coming off of an 8-3 campaign in the Sun Belt and despite the fact that they’ll have to replace some key players, including their starting quarterback, they have proven time and again both at the FCS and FBS levels that they’ll be no pushovers. It also doesn’t help that, given proximity, this will be a huge measuring stick game for the Dukes, who will likely bring a good number of fans to Scott Stadium. Given what the rest of UVa’s non-conference schedule looks like, this game is almost a must-win for the Cavaliers if they want to exceed expectations in Year 2.

Virginia has had a home-and-home with Maryland scheduled for some time now, and finally the Hoos and Terps will get back together this fall. This matchup was recently moved up a day to Friday, September 15th, which creates a short week heading into this game but gives the Cavaliers a full week off before their following game against NC State, also on a Friday. The Terps have become more competitive of late under Mike Locksley and are certainly on better footing than UVa heading into the season. They return quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa and should be a tough out, even in a difficult Big Ten. This series felt like it would be competitive when scheduled and it still might be, but right now this game looks like another one where the Cavaliers will be significant underdogs on the road.

Even UVa’s “gimmie” game on the slate might not exactly be one this year. William & Mary returns to Charlottesville as the Tribe seem to do every other year nowadays. They are coming off of a CAA title and FCS playoff appearance and will likely be competitive again this fall. Needless to say, regardless of how the rest of the non-conference slate goes, UVa needs to handle business in this one.

Richmond

Maryland

at Coastal Carolina

at Notre Dame

Whereas this fall the Wahoos open up on the road, the 2024 season will get things started in Scott Stadium against Richmond. That’s how Elliott’s tenure began and if the 2023 season goes poorly, UVa’s head coach will desperately need to start off on a good note. Facing an FCS opponent has its advantages, assuming the FBS team handles the game; UVa can get a look at its strengths and weaknesses without as much risk and potentially build some momentum by starting 1-0.

UVa has an open week following Richmond, meaning that it will likely be taking on an ACC opponent. Typically the assumption would be that the Hoos would go on the road as they’re home again the following week, but all of the road conference opponents next year have games already scheduled. Florida State and Wake Forest both come to Scott Stadium, and both have openings on September 7, so don’t be surprised if the Cavaliers are home for three straight games to open 2024 with the Noles or Deacs in Charlottesville just after Labor Day.

UVa gets its home date with Maryland the following week. The Hoos will either be looking to avenge a 2023 loss in College Park or sweep the series, with the Terps in town for the first time since 2012. Then there’s a road trip to Coastal Carolina the following week as part of a series that was supposed to begin in Charlottesville last season and in November the Cavaliers will return to South Bend to take on the Irish. That game will take place two weeks before the Wahoos go to Blacksburg, so expect the home finale in the season’s penultimate week, against UNC, Louisville or Wake Forest (FSU is committed elsewhere that week).

Non-conference scheduling is a difficult task, given the scheduling rules in place and the fact that games are scheduled so far in advance. For example, the UVa/Maryland series seemed like a toss-up when it was announced years ago but now the Terps have the upper hand. UVa also scheduled a series with Kansas to be played down the road, and when scheduled that felt like a good piece of business. But the Jayhawks are seemingly trending up, so who knows what that game will look like when the programs get to play it.

UVa’s 2023 and 2024 schedules are a combination of bad timing and perhaps too-aggressive scheduling, though of course the schedules are only on paper now and we’ll have to see what happens when these teams take the field. In 2023, scheduling Tennessee seems like an unnecessary maneuver but the game was taken before the Vols 2022 rise and UVa’s 2022 stumble. And given that UVa already had Notre Dame on the schedule for 2024, having to also play Maryland too isn’t ideal, though that may have been out of UVa’s hands given how far out these games are set.

It’s also worth noting that Virginia gets just six home games in each of the next two seasons, which makes the schedule more difficult by default and is costly for the athletic department which now gets revenue from one less game while also having to pay to travel for an additional contest.

The schedules for 2025 and beyond are still in the works. UVa has just Coastal Carolina and William & Mary on the slate for 2025, so the program needs to find a P5 opponent to play unless the ACC scraps that rule or goes to a nine-game league slate.

In taking a quick look at the future schedules of other teams, the most-likely P5 addition to the 2025 season would be one of Penn State, Northwestern, Rutgers, Washington or Washington State.

And in 2026, Notre Dame is back on the schedule, so UVa might be wise to avoid scheduling another P5 opponent that year if possible.